Prediction Results and Accuracy

Every match prediction published on Kickoff Report is logged here next to the real result. Each prediction was fixed before kickoff. Nothing is edited or removed afterwards, and the misses stay in.

465
predictions checked, 13 Jun 2026 to 20 Sep 2026
52.0%
picked the right result: home win, draw or away win
44.1%
is what always picking the home team scores on the same matches
10.9%
got the exact score right (41 of 376)

How good is that?

A forecaster who guesses blindly between home win, draw and away win is right about one time in three. Always picking the home team was right 44.1% of the time over these matches. The model was right 52.0% of the time.

Picking winners is only half of the job. A good forecast is also honest about how sure it is. The ranked probability score (RPS) measures both: 0 is perfect and lower is better. The model scores 0.2042. A forecast that gives every outcome a one in three chance scores 0.2366 on the same matches.

Results by competition

Small samples swing a lot. Treat any row with fewer than 50 matches with care. The weak rows stay in the table.

CompetitionMatchesRight resultRPSOne in three RPS
FIFA World Cup9265.2%0.17090.2361
Championship8036.2%0.23530.2236
La Liga5147.1%0.18820.2353
Eredivisie4748.9%0.20800.2317
Primeira Liga4553.3%0.18280.2333
Premier League4240.5%0.21330.2302
Serie A4266.7%0.19940.2619
Ligue 13452.9%0.26480.2435
Bundesliga2755.6%0.21160.2469
UEFA Champions League580.0%0.15370.2778

Are the percentages honest?

When the model gives its favourite a 60% chance, that favourite should win about 60% of the time. This table checks every confidence level against what really happened.

Chance given to the favouriteMatchesAverage stated chanceHow often the favourite won
30% to 40%7737.7%36.4%
40% to 50%15744.9%43.3%
50% to 60%11554.5%56.5%
60% to 70%5664.5%69.6%
70% to 80%3274.5%78.1%
80% to 90%2683.7%65.4%
90% to 100%294.6%0.0%

Several of the misses in the rows from 80% upwards come from the two known problems described at the end of this page.

Every prediction

Newest first. The three percentages are the chances the model gave to a home win, a draw and an away win.

Free to reuse. Please link to this page as the source.

September 2026
DateCompetitionMatchHome / Draw / AwayPredictedResultRight?
20 SepPrimeira LigaPorto v Benfica40% / 28% / 32%1-03-1Yes
20 SepLa LigaValencia v Real Sociedad47% / 27% / 25%1-02-3No
20 SepSerie AMilan v Lecce66% / 22% / 11%1-03-0Yes
20 SepLigue 1Marseille v PSG16% / 25% / 59%0-11-2Yes
20 SepBundesligaPaderborn v Hoffenheim24% / 27% / 49%0-13-1No
20 SepPrimeira LigaSanta Clara v Braga22% / 27% / 51%0-10-0No
20 SepPrimeira LigaEstoril v Casa Pia52% / 26% / 21%1-01-2No
20 SepLa LigaDeportivo v Real Betis21% / 26% / 53%0-11-1No
20 SepLa LigaVillarreal v Levante59% / 25% / 16%1-03-1Yes
20 SepSerie AJuventus v Atalanta45% / 28% / 27%1-02-0Yes
20 SepPremier LeagueFulham v Manchester United32% / 28% / 40%0-11-1No
20 SepBundesligaSchalke v Elversberg43% / 28% / 29%1-00-0No
20 SepLigue 1Nice v Lille25% / 27% / 48%0-12-1No
20 SepEredivisieNEC v Go Ahead Eagles55% / 26% / 19%1-01-1No
20 SepPrimeira LigaVitória v Moreirense48% / 27% / 24%1-01-1No
20 SepPrimeira LigaEstrela v Académico Viseu44% / 28% / 28%1-00-2No
20 SepLa LigaAtletico Madrid v Real Madrid31% / 28% / 41%0-12-1No
20 SepBundesligaBayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig49% / 27% / 24%1-02-0Yes
20 SepPremier LeagueLeeds v Crystal Palace43% / 28% / 29%1-00-0No
20 SepPremier LeagueManchester City v Sunderland73% / 20% / 8%2-05-3Yes
20 SepPremier LeagueBournemouth v Liverpool39% / 28% / 33%1-00-1No
20 SepSerie AFrosinone v Como22% / 26% / 52%0-12-0No
20 SepSerie AParma v Genoa42% / 28% / 30%1-02-1Yes
20 SepLigue 1Auxerre v Brest44% / 28% / 28%1-02-1Yes
20 SepEredivisieTwente v PSV22% / 27% / 52%0-13-2No
20 SepEredivisieAZ v Telstar62% / 24% / 14%1-01-0Yes
20 SepChampionshipNorwich v Bolton55% / 26% / 19%1-03-4No
20 SepLa LigaGetafe v Málaga56% / 26% / 19%1-01-0Yes
20 SepChampionshipWolves v West Brom66% / 22% / 12%1-01-0Yes
20 SepSerie AFiorentina v Napoli31% / 28% / 41%0-11-1No
20 SepEredivisieFeyenoord v Utrecht54% / 26% / 20%1-05-0Yes
19 SepPrimeira LigaSporting CP v Arouca84% / 13% / 2%2-02-2No
19 SepLa LigaSevilla v Barcelona10% / 22% / 68%0-11-3Yes
19 SepEredivisieWillem II v Fortuna Sittard36% / 28% / 36%1-10-1Yes
19 SepSerie AVenezia v Lazio31% / 28% / 41%0-10-2Yes
19 SepLigue 1Le Mans v FC Lorient27% / 28% / 46%0-12-1No
19 SepLigue 1Toulouse v Le Havre53% / 26% / 21%1-03-2Yes
19 SepLigue 1Angers v Troyes47% / 27% / 26%1-02-0Yes
19 SepLigue 1Lyon v Rennes46% / 28% / 27%1-04-0Yes
19 SepEredivisieAjax v Excelsior69% / 21% / 10%1-02-2No
19 SepPrimeira LigaAlverca v Rio Ave43% / 28% / 29%1-01-0Yes
19 SepEredivisieSparta Rotterdam v Heerenveen37% / 28% / 35%1-10-4No
19 SepPremier LeagueNottingham Forest v Coventry City64% / 23% / 13%1-00-1No
19 SepBundesligaStuttgart v Dortmund33% / 28% / 39%0-10-1Yes
19 SepLa LigaCelta Vigo v Racing Santander59% / 25% / 16%1-05-0Yes
19 SepSerie ARoma v Inter Milan32% / 28% / 39%0-12-2No
19 SepLigue 1Paris v Strasbourg34% / 28% / 38%0-12-1No
19 SepEredivisieADO Den Haag v Cambuur44% / 28% / 28%1-01-1No
19 SepPrimeira LigaNacional v Famalicão27% / 28% / 45%0-10-4Yes
19 SepPrimeira LigaGil Vicente v Marítimo57% / 25% / 17%1-01-1No
19 SepLa LigaAthletic Bilbao v Alavés49% / 27% / 24%1-00-0No
19 SepPremier LeagueEverton v Ipswich64% / 23% / 13%1-01-0Yes
19 SepPremier LeagueBrighton v Arsenal19% / 26% / 55%0-13-0No
19 SepPremier LeagueNewcastle v Hull City80% / 16% / 4%2-02-1Yes
19 SepChampionshipWrexham v Southampton31% / 28% / 41%0-12-1No
19 SepChampionshipBurnley v Derby60% / 24% / 16%1-01-1No
19 SepChampionshipQPR v Preston48% / 27% / 25%1-02-2No
19 SepChampionshipPortsmouth v Blackburn45% / 28% / 28%1-02-2No
19 SepChampionshipBirmingham v Middlesbrough34% / 28% / 38%0-12-2No
19 SepChampionshipLincoln City v Swansea36% / 28% / 36%1-11-2No
19 SepBundesligaHamburg v Köln48% / 27% / 25%1-02-1Yes
19 SepBundesligaMönchengladbach v Mainz40% / 28% / 32%1-03-4No
19 SepBundesligaWerder Bremen v Augsburg40% / 28% / 32%1-03-2Yes
19 SepBundesligaFrankfurt v Freiburg36% / 28% / 35%1-12-2No
19 SepSerie ABologna v Torino54% / 26% / 20%1-01-1No
19 SepSerie AUdinese v Cagliari50% / 27% / 23%1-00-1No
19 SepLa LigaOsasuna v Rayo Vallecano37% / 28% / 35%1-11-1No
19 SepPremier LeagueTottenham v Aston Villa27% / 28% / 46%0-12-3Yes
19 SepChampionshipStoke v Sheffield United32% / 28% / 39%0-12-1No
19 SepChampionshipMillwall v West Ham25% / 27% / 48%0-12-2No
19 SepChampionshipCardiff v Charlton46% / 28% / 27%1-03-1Yes
18 SepPremier LeagueBrentford v Chelsea44% / 28% / 28%1-03-0Yes
18 SepLa LigaEspanyol v Elche45% / 28% / 28%1-01-3No
18 SepChampionshipBristol City v Watford50% / 27% / 23%1-01-0Yes
18 SepSerie AMonza v Sassuolo34% / 28% / 37%0-12-1No
18 SepLigue 1Monaco v Lens62% / 22% / 16%2-02-1Yes
18 SepBundesligaBayern Munich v Union Berlin86% / 12% / 2%2-07-0Yes
18 SepEredivisieGroningen v Zwolle50% / 27% / 23%1-03-0Yes
16 SepLa LigaBarcelona v Racing Santander86% / 12% / 2%2-07-2Yes
16 SepLa LigaDeportivo v Sevilla34% / 28% / 38%0-10-1Yes
15 SepLa LigaElche v Real Madrid12% / 23% / 65%0-12-3Yes
14 SepPrimeira LigaMoreirense v Marítimo54% / 26% / 20%1-03-1Yes
14 SepPremier LeagueLeeds v Newcastle39% / 28% / 33%1-04-1Yes
14 SepSerie AInter Milan v Udinese74% / 19% / 7%2-05-3Yes
14 SepPrimeira LigaRio Ave v Estrela50% / 27% / 23%1-03-3No
14 SepSerie ATorino v Roma24% / 27% / 49%0-10-2Yes
14 SepSerie AComo v Parma64% / 23% / 13%1-02-1Yes
13 SepPremier LeagueManchester United v Manchester City37% / 28% / 35%1-10-1No
13 SepBundesligaRB Leipzig v Hamburg64% / 23% / 13%1-05-0Yes
13 SepSerie ALecce v Monza47% / 27% / 26%1-03-2Yes
13 SepEredivisieHeerenveen v Telstar53% / 26% / 21%1-00-0No
12 SepEredivisieCambuur v NEC20% / 26% / 54%0-13-0No
12 SepLigue 1Auxerre v Nice49% / 27% / 24%1-01-0Yes
12 SepChampionshipWatford v Stoke44% / 28% / 28%1-01-2No
12 SepChampionshipBolton v Cardiff44% / 28% / 28%1-01-0Yes
12 SepChampionshipWest Brom v QPR47% / 27% / 26%1-01-1No
11 SepLa LigaSevilla v Valencia35% / 28% / 37%1-11-0No
11 SepChampionshipWest Ham v Wrexham73% / 19% / 7%2-06-0Yes
11 SepSerie AVenezia v Fiorentina35% / 28% / 37%1-12-4Yes
11 SepLigue 1Rennes v Marseille42% / 28% / 30%1-01-0Yes
11 SepBundesligaUnion Berlin v Schalke57% / 25% / 18%1-01-3No
11 SepEredivisieAZ v Willem II69% / 20% / 11%2-01-1No
10 SepPrimeira LigaEstrela v Braga13% / 22% / 64%0-12-1No
10 SepUEFA Champions LeagueComo v RB Leipzig44% / 28% / 29%1-04-1Yes
9 SepPrimeira LigaMoreirense v Benfica10% / 22% / 69%0-10-4Yes
9 SepChampionshipCharlton v QPR39% / 29% / 32%1-00-0No
9 SepUEFA Champions LeagueLiverpool v Atletico Madrid53% / 26% / 21%1-02-1Yes
9 SepUEFA Champions LeagueNapoli v Arsenal14% / 23% / 63%0-10-1Yes
9 SepChampionshipDerby v West Brom48% / 28% / 25%1-00-1No
9 SepChampionshipNorwich v Birmingham53% / 26% / 21%1-02-1Yes
9 SepEredivisieTwente v Telstar65% / 23% / 12%1-01-0Yes
9 SepUEFA Champions LeagueBarcelona v Feyenoord85% / 13% / 2%2-05-1Yes
8 SepChampionshipBolton v West Ham12% / 23% / 65%0-12-3Yes
8 SepUEFA Champions LeagueLille v Real Betis43% / 28% / 29%1-02-3No
8 SepChampionshipBlackburn v Sheffield United36% / 28% / 36%1-11-2Yes
8 SepChampionshipSouthampton v Swansea59% / 24% / 16%1-03-1Yes
8 SepChampionshipWatford v Preston45% / 28% / 28%1-02-1Yes
8 SepChampionshipCardiff v Stoke45% / 27% / 27%1-01-1No
8 SepChampionshipWrexham v Burnley27% / 28% / 45%0-11-1No
8 SepEredivisieNEC v Excelsior65% / 22% / 13%1-02-2No
7 SepLa LigaElche v Real Sociedad34% / 29% / 38%0-12-3Yes
7 SepPrimeira LigaEstoril v Arouca42% / 28% / 30%1-00-0No
7 SepSerie AUdinese v Lazio36% / 29% / 35%1-11-2No
7 SepLa LigaGetafe v Celta Vigo39% / 28% / 33%1-01-1No
7 SepSerie ACagliari v Lecce47% / 28% / 25%1-01-0Yes
6 SepPrimeira LigaGil Vicente v Académico Viseu70% / 26% / 5%1-00-1No
6 SepLigue 1Marseille v Paris55% / 26% / 19%1-02-3No
6 SepLa LigaMálaga v Levante35% / 28% / 36%1-10-0No
6 SepPremier LeagueArsenal v Chelsea72% / 19% / 8%2-02-1Yes
6 SepEredivisieADO Den Haag v Fortuna Sittard36% / 28% / 36%1-12-3Yes
6 SepPrimeira LigaSanta Clara v Rio Ave46% / 28% / 26%1-04-0Yes
6 SepLa LigaValencia v Barcelona16% / 24% / 60%0-10-5Yes
6 SepPremier LeagueEverton v Manchester United28% / 28% / 44%0-12-2No
6 SepSerie AFrosinone v Venezia40% / 28% / 32%1-03-2Yes
6 SepEredivisieTelstar v Cambuur54% / 26% / 20%1-02-2No
6 SepEredivisieGroningen v Twente26% / 27% / 47%0-12-2No
5 SepPrimeira LigaSporting CP v Nacional86% / 12% / 2%2-02-0Yes
5 SepChampionshipSwansea v Wrexham45% / 28% / 27%1-00-0No
5 SepSerie ARoma v Atalanta48% / 27% / 25%1-02-1Yes
5 SepEredivisieAjax v PSV23% / 27% / 50%0-11-3Yes
5 SepPrimeira LigaAlverca v Braga16% / 25% / 60%0-11-2Yes
5 SepPrimeira LigaMarítimo v Benfica5% / 16% / 79%0-20-3Yes
5 SepPremier LeagueHull City v Aston Villa6% / 18% / 75%0-20-0No
5 SepBundesligaSchalke v Bayern Munich2% / 13% / 85%0-20-0No
5 SepSerie AInter Milan v Napoli57% / 25% / 17%1-03-2Yes
5 SepLigue 1Lens v FC Lorient60% / 24% / 16%1-00-1No
5 SepLa LigaAthletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid26% / 28% / 46%0-13-0No
5 SepPremier LeagueNottingham Forest v Tottenham49% / 27% / 24%1-00-0No
5 SepPremier LeagueManchester City v Coventry City81% / 15% / 4%2-01-0Yes
5 SepPremier LeagueBrighton v Leeds49% / 27% / 24%1-01-1No
5 SepPremier LeagueBrentford v Sunderland56% / 25% / 18%1-01-1No
5 SepPremier LeagueFulham v Crystal Palace45% / 28% / 27%1-02-3No
5 SepChampionshipSheffield United v Norwich42% / 28% / 30%1-01-3No
5 SepChampionshipWest Brom v Watford50% / 27% / 23%1-01-0Yes
5 SepChampionshipWest Ham v Derby72% / 20% / 8%2-03-0Yes
5 SepChampionshipBurnley v Bristol City64% / 23% / 13%1-01-2No
5 SepBundesligaWerder Bremen v RB Leipzig26% / 27% / 47%0-13-1No
5 SepBundesligaHoffenheim v Dortmund28% / 28% / 44%0-12-3Yes
5 SepBundesligaBayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin67% / 22% / 11%1-04-0Yes
5 SepBundesligaMönchengladbach v Elversberg59% / 25% / 17%1-03-4No
5 SepBundesligaPaderborn v Freiburg21% / 26% / 53%0-10-1Yes
5 SepSerie AFiorentina v Torino50% / 27% / 23%1-01-2No
5 SepPremier LeagueNewcastle v Bournemouth40% / 28% / 32%1-02-2No
5 SepChampionshipPreston v Blackburn42% / 28% / 30%1-02-1Yes
5 SepChampionshipStoke v Charlton44% / 28% / 28%1-04-0Yes
5 SepChampionshipLincoln City v Southampton6% / 9% / 85%1-31-1No
4 SepPrimeira LigaPorto v Moreirense82% / 14% / 3%2-02-1Yes
4 SepLigue 1PSG v Monaco97% / 3% / 0%4-01-2No
4 SepLa LigaReal Betis v Real Madrid23% / 27% / 50%0-11-0No
4 SepPremier LeagueIpswich v Liverpool15% / 24% / 61%0-10-2Yes
4 SepSerie AGenoa v Como27% / 28% / 45%0-11-4Yes
4 SepBundesligaStuttgart v Köln68% / 22% / 10%1-04-1Yes
4 SepEredivisieSparta Rotterdam v Zwolle47% / 27% / 26%1-02-2No
4 SepLigue 1Lyon v Auxerre57% / 25% / 18%1-03-1Yes
3 SepLa LigaReal Sociedad v Celta Vigo40% / 28% / 32%1-00-0No
3 SepLigue 1Toulouse v Lille33% / 28% / 39%0-10-1Yes
2 SepChampionshipBurnley v Middlesbrough54% / 26% / 20%1-01-1No
2 SepChampionshipMillwall v Wrexham53% / 26% / 20%1-00-3No
2 SepChampionshipQPR v Cardiff45% / 28% / 27%1-02-1Yes
2 SepChampionshipWest Brom v Charlton50% / 27% / 23%1-01-1No
1 SepChampionshipBirmingham v Southampton28% / 28% / 44%0-11-1No
1 SepChampionshipStoke v Norwich31% / 28% / 41%0-11-0No
1 SepChampionshipPreston v Bristol City40% / 28% / 32%1-01-3No
1 SepChampionshipWest Ham v Wolves55% / 26% / 19%1-04-2Yes
1 SepChampionshipLincoln City v Blackburn6% / 10% / 83%1-30-0No
1 SepChampionshipSheffield United v Bolton54% / 26% / 20%1-03-2Yes
1 SepChampionshipPortsmouth v Derby39% / 28% / 33%1-00-2No
1 SepChampionshipSwansea v Watford54% / 26% / 20%1-02-0Yes
August 2026
DateCompetitionMatchHome / Draw / AwayPredictedResultRight?
31 AugLa LigaBarcelona v Rayo Vallecano74% / 19% / 7%2-05-2Yes
31 AugPrimeira LigaBenfica v Estoril83% / 14% / 3%2-02-1Yes
31 AugPrimeira LigaBraga v Vitória67% / 22% / 11%1-01-0Yes
31 AugPremier LeagueAston Villa v Arsenal27% / 28% / 45%0-10-1Yes
31 AugSerie AAtalanta v Bologna52% / 27% / 22%1-01-0Yes
31 AugLa LigaOsasuna v Getafe42% / 28% / 30%1-01-0Yes
31 AugSerie ALecce v Roma19% / 26% / 56%0-10-4Yes
30 AugLa LigaCelta Vigo v Athletic Bilbao47% / 27% / 26%1-00-2No
30 AugPrimeira LigaFamalicão v Gil Vicente54% / 26% / 20%1-00-0No
30 AugSerie ALazio v Genoa54% / 26% / 20%1-01-0Yes
30 AugSerie ACagliari v Inter Milan13% / 23% / 64%0-10-1Yes
30 AugLigue 1Monaco v Marseille1% / 6% / 93%0-32-0No
30 AugEredivisieCambuur v Twente16% / 25% / 59%0-11-4Yes
30 AugLa LigaDeportivo v Valencia26% / 27% / 46%0-13-1No
30 AugPrimeira LigaCasa Pia v Moreirense38% / 28% / 34%1-00-1No
30 AugSerie ANapoli v Como46% / 28% / 26%1-01-2No
30 AugPremier LeagueManchester United v Ipswich77% / 17% / 5%2-05-2Yes
30 AugBundesligaAugsburg v Schalke58% / 25% / 17%1-03-0Yes
30 AugLigue 1Rennes v Le Mans71% / 20% / 8%2-03-2Yes
30 AugLa LigaReal Madrid v Málaga85% / 13% / 2%2-04-0Yes
30 AugEredivisieTelstar v Ajax23% / 27% / 50%0-10-4Yes
30 AugPrimeira LigaNacional v Estrela50% / 27% / 23%1-02-3No
30 AugBundesligaFreiburg v Werder Bremen59% / 25% / 16%1-04-1Yes
30 AugPremier LeagueSunderland v Fulham34% / 28% / 37%1-11-0No
30 AugPremier LeagueChelsea v Brighton42% / 28% / 30%1-04-3Yes
30 AugPremier LeagueLeeds v Brentford39% / 28% / 33%1-01-1No
30 AugLigue 1Paris v Nice50% / 27% / 23%1-03-0Yes
30 AugEredivisieWillem II v Heerenveen26% / 27% / 46%0-12-2No
30 AugEredivisieFeyenoord v ADO Den Haag78% / 17% / 5%2-02-2No
30 AugEredivisieUtrecht v PSV17% / 25% / 57%0-11-6Yes
29 AugLa LigaSevilla v Atletico Madrid21% / 26% / 53%0-11-3Yes
29 AugEredivisieZwolle v NEC27% / 28% / 45%0-11-3Yes
29 AugSerie AJuventus v Parma65% / 23% / 12%1-02-0Yes
29 AugLigue 1FC Lorient v Troyes59% / 25% / 17%1-01-2No
29 AugLigue 1Lyon v Le Havre63% / 23% / 14%1-01-1No
29 AugLigue 1Auxerre v Angers53% / 26% / 20%1-01-3No
29 AugLigue 1Brest v Toulouse40% / 28% / 32%1-02-2No
29 AugLa LigaReal Sociedad v Espanyol49% / 27% / 24%1-02-1Yes
29 AugPrimeira LigaAcadémico Viseu v Porto2% / 12% / 86%0-20-3Yes
29 AugEredivisieAZ v Go Ahead Eagles56% / 25% / 18%1-05-2Yes
29 AugPremier LeagueTottenham v Newcastle36% / 28% / 35%1-10-2No
29 AugSerie ASassuolo v Torino44% / 28% / 29%1-02-1Yes
29 AugSerie AMonza v Udinese32% / 28% / 40%0-12-3Yes
29 AugSerie AFiorentina v Frosinone57% / 25% / 18%1-00-3No
29 AugBundesligaDortmund v Hamburg72% / 20% / 8%2-02-0Yes
29 AugLigue 1Strasbourg v Lens37% / 28% / 35%1-12-1Yes
29 AugLa LigaLevante v Real Betis31% / 28% / 41%0-15-2No
29 AugEredivisieExcelsior v Sparta Rotterdam40% / 28% / 32%1-02-1Yes
29 AugPrimeira LigaAlverca v Santa Clara39% / 28% / 33%1-01-1No
29 AugPrimeira LigaArouca v Marítimo56% / 25% / 18%1-02-1Yes
29 AugPremier LeagueBournemouth v Everton52% / 26% / 21%1-01-1No
29 AugPremier LeagueCoventry City v Hull City60% / 24% / 16%1-00-1No
29 AugChampionshipNorwich v Burnley31% / 28% / 41%0-14-1No
29 AugChampionshipBolton v Lincoln City83% / 11% / 6%3-00-1No
29 AugChampionshipBristol City v Portsmouth45% / 28% / 27%1-02-1Yes
29 AugChampionshipSouthampton v Millwall48% / 27% / 25%1-05-1Yes
29 AugChampionshipCharlton v Preston41% / 28% / 31%1-01-0Yes
29 AugChampionshipBlackburn v QPR45% / 28% / 27%1-01-2No
29 AugChampionshipCardiff v Sheffield United34% / 28% / 37%0-12-2No
29 AugChampionshipWatford v West Ham11% / 22% / 66%0-11-1No
29 AugBundesligaRB Leipzig v Mönchengladbach59% / 25% / 16%1-03-0Yes
29 AugBundesligaMainz v Paderborn62% / 24% / 14%1-00-0No
29 AugBundesligaUnion Berlin v Frankfurt38% / 28% / 33%1-03-3No
29 AugBundesligaElversberg v Bayer Leverkusen14% / 24% / 63%0-13-2No
29 AugBundesligaKöln v Hoffenheim28% / 28% / 44%0-13-2No
29 AugPremier LeagueLiverpool v Nottingham Forest55% / 26% / 19%1-02-2No
29 AugChampionshipWolves v Stoke69% / 15% / 16%3-14-1Yes
29 AugChampionshipDerby v Swansea44% / 28% / 28%1-00-3No
29 AugChampionshipMiddlesbrough v West Brom54% / 26% / 20%1-03-1Yes
28 AugLa LigaAlavés v Villarreal29% / 28% / 43%0-11-0No
28 AugPrimeira LigaRio Ave v Sporting CP6% / 18% / 76%0-20-4Yes
28 AugPremier LeagueCrystal Palace v Manchester City24% / 27% / 48%0-11-4Yes
28 AugChampionshipWrexham v Birmingham46% / 28% / 26%1-01-2No
28 AugSerie AMilan v Venezia63% / 23% / 14%1-02-0Yes
28 AugLigue 1Lille v PSG19% / 26% / 56%0-12-2No
28 AugBundesligaBayern Munich v Stuttgart73% / 19% / 8%2-05-1Yes
28 AugEredivisieGroningen v Fortuna Sittard51% / 27% / 22%1-02-3No
28 AugLa LigaRacing Santander v Elche39% / 28% / 33%1-03-2Yes
27 AugLa LigaBarcelona v Athletic Bilbao77% / 17% / 6%2-02-0Yes
27 AugLa LigaCelta Vigo v Osasuna50% / 27% / 23%1-01-2No
26 AugLa LigaReal Madrid v Real Sociedad75% / 19% / 7%2-04-1Yes
25 AugLa LigaValencia v Real Betis38% / 28% / 34%1-00-1No
24 AugLa LigaMálaga v Deportivo47% / 27% / 26%1-01-1No
24 AugPrimeira LigaGil Vicente v Casa Pia54% / 26% / 20%1-02-0Yes
24 AugPremier LeagueFulham v Chelsea42% / 28% / 30%1-02-3No
24 AugSerie ARoma v Fiorentina59% / 25% / 16%1-04-0Yes
24 AugLa LigaOsasuna v Levante45% / 28% / 27%1-00-0No
24 AugSerie ABologna v Lazio44% / 28% / 29%1-00-1No
23 AugLa LigaElche v Barcelona10% / 21% / 68%0-10-5Yes
23 AugPrimeira LigaPorto v Arouca80% / 16% / 4%2-02-0Yes
23 AugSerie AAtalanta v Sassuolo62% / 24% / 15%1-02-1Yes
23 AugSerie ATorino v Milan29% / 28% / 43%0-11-2Yes
23 AugLigue 1PSG v Rennes75% / 19% / 7%2-02-2No
23 AugLa LigaGetafe v Racing Santander54% / 26% / 20%1-01-0Yes
23 AugPrimeira LigaSanta Clara v Famalicão31% / 28% / 41%0-11-0No
23 AugSerie AFrosinone v Juventus20% / 26% / 54%0-10-1Yes
23 AugSerie AVenezia v Lecce48% / 27% / 25%1-00-2No
23 AugPremier LeagueNewcastle v Liverpool35% / 28% / 37%1-12-2No
23 AugLigue 1Le Havre v Monaco23% / 32% / 45%0-10-1Yes
23 AugLa LigaAtletico Madrid v Villarreal52% / 26% / 21%1-02-2No
23 AugEredivisieCambuur v Feyenoord13% / 23% / 63%0-12-5Yes
23 AugPrimeira LigaVitória v Nacional52% / 27% / 22%1-01-0Yes
23 AugPremier LeagueManchester City v Bournemouth56% / 25% / 18%1-02-1Yes
23 AugPremier LeagueBrighton v Aston Villa34% / 28% / 38%0-14-0No
23 AugLigue 1Angers v Lille21% / 26% / 52%0-10-2Yes
23 AugEredivisiePSV v Groningen82% / 15% / 3%2-05-1Yes
23 AugChampionshipWest Brom v Burnley25% / 27% / 48%0-13-1No
23 AugEredivisieGo Ahead Eagles v ADO Den Haag59% / 25% / 16%1-03-1Yes
22 AugLa LigaEspanyol v Real Madrid13% / 23% / 64%0-11-2Yes
22 AugPrimeira LigaSporting CP v Alverca87% / 12% / 2%2-03-1Yes
22 AugEredivisieHeerenveen v Zwolle54% / 26% / 20%1-00-2No
22 AugSerie AGenoa v Napoli25% / 27% / 48%0-10-2Yes
22 AugSerie AParma v Cagliari44% / 28% / 28%1-00-1No
22 AugLigue 1Le Mans v Brest29% / 28% / 44%0-12-2No
22 AugLigue 1Troyes v Paris31% / 28% / 41%0-10-0No
22 AugLigue 1Nice v FC Lorient37% / 28% / 35%1-10-0No
22 AugLigue 1Toulouse v Lyon34% / 28% / 38%0-10-2Yes
22 AugLa LigaValencia v Celta Vigo43% / 28% / 29%1-00-0No
22 AugPrimeira LigaEstoril v Rio Ave49% / 27% / 24%1-00-2No
22 AugEredivisieSparta Rotterdam v Utrecht31% / 28% / 41%0-13-3No
22 AugPremier LeagueBrentford v Tottenham51% / 27% / 22%1-03-0Yes
22 AugSerie AUdinese v Como30% / 28% / 42%0-11-1No
22 AugSerie AInter Milan v Monza84% / 13% / 2%2-04-1Yes
22 AugLigue 1Lens v Auxerre62% / 24% / 14%1-05-2Yes
22 AugLa LigaAthletic Bilbao v Sevilla50% / 27% / 23%1-01-3No
22 AugEredivisieFortuna Sittard v AZ26% / 27% / 47%0-10-2Yes
22 AugPrimeira LigaMarítimo v Académico Viseu67% / 26% / 7%1-02-2No
22 AugPremier LeagueIpswich v Sunderland32% / 28% / 40%0-12-1No
22 AugPremier LeagueNottingham Forest v Leeds47% / 27% / 26%1-00-1No
22 AugPremier LeagueEverton v Crystal Palace44% / 28% / 28%1-02-0Yes
22 AugChampionshipSwansea v Sheffield United43% / 28% / 30%1-00-0No
22 AugChampionshipWest Ham v Charlton81% / 15% / 4%2-01-2No
22 AugChampionshipDerby v Cardiff53% / 26% / 21%1-02-2No
22 AugChampionshipPreston v Wolves21% / 26% / 53%0-11-3Yes
22 AugChampionshipWrexham v Watford53% / 26% / 21%1-01-1No
22 AugChampionshipBlackburn v Middlesbrough32% / 28% / 40%0-12-1No
22 AugChampionshipSouthampton v Stoke67% / 22% / 11%1-03-1Yes
22 AugChampionshipQPR v Bolton45% / 28% / 27%1-00-0No
22 AugPremier LeagueHull City v Manchester United7% / 19% / 75%0-22-0No
22 AugChampionshipBirmingham v Bristol City44% / 28% / 28%1-02-2No
22 AugChampionshipLincoln City v Portsmouth55% / 20% / 25%2-11-3No
22 AugChampionshipMillwall v Norwich49% / 27% / 24%1-03-0Yes
21 AugLa LigaReal Betis v Real Sociedad54% / 26% / 20%1-01-0Yes
21 AugPremier LeagueArsenal v Coventry City87% / 12% / 2%2-03-0Yes
21 AugLigue 1Marseille v Strasbourg45% / 28% / 28%1-04-0Yes
20 AugLa LigaRayo Vallecano v Alavés53% / 26% / 21%1-01-1No
19 AugLa LigaAtletico Madrid v Málaga75% / 18% / 6%2-02-0Yes
17 AugLa LigaDeportivo v Elche34% / 28% / 37%1-11-1No
17 AugChampionshipCardiff v Wrexham37% / 28% / 35%1-11-1No
16 AugLa LigaEspanyol v Levante43% / 28% / 29%1-03-0Yes
16 AugLa LigaRacing Santander v Villarreal23% / 27% / 50%0-12-2No
16 AugChampionshipBurnley v West Ham31% / 28% / 40%0-12-2No
16 AugChampionshipWatford v Southampton23% / 27% / 50%0-12-1No
15 AugLa LigaSevilla v Rayo Vallecano34% / 28% / 38%0-12-1No
15 AugPrimeira LigaRio Ave v Porto8% / 20% / 72%0-20-2Yes
15 AugEredivisieFortuna Sittard v Cambuur52% / 26% / 21%1-03-1Yes
15 AugEredivisieExcelsior v PSV7% / 19% / 75%0-21-2Yes
15 AugLa LigaAlavés v Getafe40% / 28% / 32%1-03-0Yes
15 AugPrimeira LigaAcadémico Viseu v Santa Clara42% / 16% / 42%3-30-1No
15 AugEredivisieUtrecht v AZ41% / 28% / 30%1-01-4No
15 AugChampionshipSheffield United v Birmingham49% / 27% / 24%1-00-0No
15 AugEredivisieWillem II v NEC20% / 26% / 54%0-11-4Yes
15 AugPrimeira LigaAlverca v Estrela49% / 27% / 24%1-02-2No
15 AugChampionshipNorwich v West Brom51% / 27% / 22%1-01-2No
15 AugChampionshipBristol City v Millwall32% / 28% / 40%0-10-2Yes
15 AugChampionshipStoke v Swansea34% / 28% / 38%0-11-2Yes
15 AugChampionshipCharlton v Derby33% / 28% / 38%0-12-1No
15 AugChampionshipPortsmouth v QPR46% / 28% / 26%1-01-3No
15 AugChampionshipBolton v Preston43% / 28% / 30%1-02-1Yes
14 AugPrimeira LigaSporting CP v Vitória83% / 14% / 3%2-03-2Yes
14 AugChampionshipWolves v Blackburn67% / 22% / 11%1-02-2No
14 AugEredivisieTelstar v Sparta Rotterdam42% / 28% / 30%1-01-3No
9 AugPrimeira LigaMoreirense v Braga19% / 26% / 55%0-12-2No
9 AugPrimeira LigaGil Vicente v Rio Ave51% / 27% / 22%1-01-0Yes
9 AugPrimeira LigaPorto v Alverca36% / 28% / 36%1-12-0Yes
9 AugEredivisieHeerenveen v Twente32% / 28% / 40%0-11-0No
9 AugEredivisieGroningen v Utrecht34% / 28% / 38%0-12-1No
9 AugEredivisieZwolle v Ajax22% / 27% / 51%0-10-2Yes
9 AugEredivisieSparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord22% / 27% / 51%0-10-1Yes
8 AugEredivisiePSV v Fortuna Sittard86% / 12% / 2%2-02-2No
8 AugEredivisieGo Ahead Eagles v Willem II59% / 25% / 16%1-04-1Yes
8 AugEredivisieNEC v Telstar61% / 24% / 15%1-01-2No
8 AugPrimeira LigaMarítimo v Casa Pia40% / 28% / 32%1-01-0Yes
7 AugPrimeira LigaEstoril v Famalicão32% / 28% / 40%0-11-1No
7 AugEredivisieCambuur v Excelsior36% / 28% / 35%1-10-4No
July 2026
DateCompetitionMatchHome / Draw / AwayPredictedResultRight?
19 JulFIFA World CupSpain v Argentina36% / 34% / 30%1-01-0 (after extra time)No
18 JulFIFA World CupFrance v England37% / 34% / 29%1-04-6No
15 JulFIFA World CupEngland v Argentina26% / 33% / 40%0-11-2Yes
14 JulFIFA World CupFrance v Spain31% / 34% / 36%0-10-2Yes
12 JulFIFA World CupArgentina v Switzerland52% / 31% / 17%1-03-1 (after extra time)No
11 JulFIFA World CupNorway v England27% / 33% / 40%0-11-2 (after extra time)No
10 JulFIFA World CupSpain v Belgium53% / 31% / 17%2-1Yes
9 JulFIFA World CupFrance v Morocco53% / 30% / 16%2-0Yes
7 JulFIFA World CupSwitzerland v Colombia28% / 33% / 39%0-0 (penalties)No
7 JulFIFA World CupArgentina v Egypt70% / 23% / 6%3-2Yes
7 JulFIFA World CupUnited States v Belgium29% / 34% / 37%1-4Yes
6 JulFIFA World CupPortugal v Spain21% / 32% / 46%0-1Yes
6 JulFIFA World CupMexico v England30% / 34% / 36%2-3Yes
5 JulFIFA World CupBrazil v Norway42% / 33% / 25%1-2No
4 JulFIFA World CupParaguay v France11% / 27% / 62%0-1Yes
4 JulFIFA World CupCanada v Morocco28% / 33% / 38%0-3Yes
4 JulFIFA World CupColombia v Ghana76% / 20% / 4%1-0Yes
3 JulFIFA World CupArgentina v Cape Verde Islands81% / 17% / 2%3-2 (after extra time)No
3 JulFIFA World CupAustralia v Egypt40% / 33% / 26%1-1 (penalties)No
3 JulFIFA World CupSwitzerland v Algeria44% / 33% / 23%2-0Yes
2 JulFIFA World CupPortugal v Croatia40% / 33% / 27%2-1Yes
2 JulFIFA World CupSpain v Austria63% / 27% / 10%3-0Yes
2 JulFIFA World CupUnited States v Bosnia-Herzegovina51% / 31% / 18%2-0Yes
1 JulFIFA World CupBelgium v Senegal36% / 34% / 30%3-2 (after extra time)No
1 JulFIFA World CupEngland v Congo DR67% / 25% / 8%2-1Yes
1 JulFIFA World CupMexico v Ecuador34% / 34% / 32%2-0Yes
June 2026
DateCompetitionMatchHome / Draw / AwayPredictedResultRight?
30 JunFIFA World CupFrance v Sweden65% / 26% / 9%3-0Yes
30 JunFIFA World CupIvory Coast v Norway16% / 30% / 53%1-2Yes
30 JunFIFA World CupNetherlands v Morocco44% / 33% / 23%1-1 (penalties)No
29 JunFIFA World CupGermany v Paraguay42% / 33% / 25%1-1 (penalties)No
29 JunFIFA World CupBrazil v Japan41% / 33% / 26%2-1Yes
28 JunFIFA World CupJordan v Argentina5% / 22% / 73%1-3Yes
27 JunFIFA World CupCongo DR v Uzbekistan28% / 33% / 39%3-1No
27 JunFIFA World CupPanama v England12% / 28% / 60%0-2Yes
27 JunFIFA World CupCroatia v Ghana70% / 24% / 6%2-1Yes
27 JunFIFA World CupNew Zealand v Belgium10% / 27% / 64%1-5Yes
26 JunFIFA World CupNorway v France21% / 32% / 47%1-4Yes
25 JunFIFA World CupTunisia v Netherlands10% / 27% / 63%1-3Yes
25 JunFIFA World CupJapan v Sweden51% / 31% / 18%1-1No
25 JunFIFA World CupEcuador v Germany34% / 34% / 33%2-1Yes
25 JunFIFA World CupCuraçao v Ivory Coast14% / 29% / 57%0-2Yes
25 JunFIFA World CupCzechia v Mexico20% / 32% / 49%0-3Yes
25 JunFIFA World CupSouth Africa v South Korea13% / 29% / 58%1-0No
24 JunFIFA World CupMorocco v Haiti59% / 29% / 13%4-2Yes
24 JunFIFA World CupScotland v Brazil17% / 31% / 52%0-3Yes
24 JunFIFA World CupSwitzerland v Canada42% / 33% / 25%2-1Yes
24 JunFIFA World CupBosnia-Herzegovina v Qatar49% / 32% / 19%3-1Yes
24 JunFIFA World CupColombia v Congo DR64% / 27% / 10%1-0Yes
23 JunFIFA World CupPanama v Croatia19% / 31% / 50%0-1Yes
23 JunFIFA World CupEngland v Ghana79% / 18% / 3%0-0No
23 JunFIFA World CupPortugal v Uzbekistan58% / 29% / 13%5-0Yes
23 JunFIFA World CupJordan v Algeria26% / 33% / 41%1-2Yes
23 JunFIFA World CupNorway v Senegal38% / 33% / 29%3-2Yes
22 JunFIFA World CupFrance v Iraq75% / 21% / 4%3-0Yes
22 JunFIFA World CupArgentina v Austria59% / 28% / 12%2-0Yes
22 JunFIFA World CupNew Zealand v Egypt22% / 32% / 45%1-3Yes
21 JunFIFA World CupUruguay v Cape Verde Islands62% / 27% / 11%2-2No
21 JunFIFA World CupBelgium v Iran44% / 33% / 23%0-0No
21 JunFIFA World CupSpain v Saudi Arabia83% / 16% / 2%4-0Yes
21 JunFIFA World CupTunisia v Japan13% / 29% / 59%0-4Yes
21 JunFIFA World CupEcuador v Curaçao79% / 18% / 3%0-0No
20 JunFIFA World CupGermany v Ivory Coast55% / 30% / 15%2-1Yes
20 JunFIFA World CupNetherlands v Sweden55% / 30% / 15%5-1Yes
20 JunFIFA World CupTurkey v Paraguay40% / 33% / 27%0-1No
20 JunFIFA World CupBrazil v Haiti74% / 22% / 5%3-0Yes
19 JunFIFA World CupScotland v Morocco29% / 34% / 37%0-1Yes
19 JunFIFA World CupUnited States v Australia34% / 34% / 32%2-0Yes
19 JunFIFA World CupMexico v South Korea48% / 32% / 20%1-0Yes
18 JunFIFA World CupCanada v Qatar73% / 22% / 5%6-0Yes
18 JunFIFA World CupSwitzerland v Bosnia-Herzegovina60% / 28% / 12%4-1Yes
18 JunFIFA World CupCzechia v South Africa52% / 31% / 18%1-1No
18 JunFIFA World CupUzbekistan v Colombia13% / 29% / 58%1-3Yes
17 JunFIFA World CupGhana v Panama16% / 30% / 53%1-0No
17 JunFIFA World CupEngland v Croatia43% / 33% / 24%4-2Yes
17 JunFIFA World CupPortugal v Congo DR64% / 26% / 9%1-1No
17 JunFIFA World CupAustria v Jordan47% / 32% / 21%3-1Yes
17 JunFIFA World CupArgentina v Algeria65% / 26% / 9%3-0Yes
16 JunFIFA World CupIraq v Norway11% / 28% / 61%1-4Yes
16 JunFIFA World CupFrance v Senegal52% / 31% / 17%3-1Yes
16 JunFIFA World CupIran v New Zealand52% / 31% / 17%2-2No
15 JunFIFA World CupSaudi Arabia v Uruguay11% / 27% / 62%1-1No
15 JunFIFA World CupBelgium v Egypt51% / 31% / 18%1-1No
15 JunFIFA World CupSpain v Cape Verde Islands83% / 16% / 2%0-0No
15 JunFIFA World CupSweden v Tunisia41% / 33% / 26%5-1Yes
14 JunFIFA World CupIvory Coast v Ecuador15% / 30% / 55%1-0No
14 JunFIFA World CupNetherlands v Japan37% / 34% / 30%2-2No
14 JunFIFA World CupGermany v Curaçao78% / 19% / 3%7-1Yes
14 JunFIFA World CupAustralia v Turkey22% / 32% / 45%2-0No
14 JunFIFA World CupHaiti v Scotland15% / 30% / 55%0-1Yes
13 JunFIFA World CupBrazil v Morocco48% / 32% / 20%1-1No
13 JunFIFA World CupQatar v Switzerland4% / 20% / 76%1-1No
13 JunFIFA World CupUnited States v Paraguay31% / 28% / 41%4-1No

How we count

  • The pick is the outcome the model rated most likely.
  • A prediction is about 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A match that went to extra time or penalties counts as a draw.
  • Only predictions that were generated before kickoff, and whose preview had a public page, are counted. Drafts that never went live are left out.
  • Final scores come from football-data.org.
  • The model itself is explained on How our predictions work.

Known problems in this record

  • Predictions for AS Monaco matches made between late August and 17 September 2026 used a wrong team rating, which made some of them far too confident. The error was fixed on 18 September 2026.
  • Two newly promoted clubs, Lincoln City and Académico de Viseu, had no team rating until 18 September 2026. Previews written before that date predicted their matches with a cruder fallback method, which produced some odd numbers. Both clubs have a rating now.

All of these predictions stay in the record.

Results through 20 September 2026. This page updates by itself after each match day.

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