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Match Prediction
Vitória win
Draw
Marítimo win
Vitória or draw
Marítimo or draw
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.8 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:52 UTC · Track record
Two Winless Sides Open Matchday 9
Vitória open Matchday 9 at the Estádio D. Afonso Henriques without a win in their last five. They go into the round 15th on 5 points from 8 games. Marítimo arrive 11th on 8 points, four places and three points better off, and they are also winless in five. Friday night in Guimarães is a chance for one of these sides to stop the slide before the rest of the round is played.
The State of Vitória
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Vitória’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Benfica | Away | L 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| 20 Sep | Moreirense | Home | D 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 12 Sep | Académico Viseu | Away | L 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| 6 Sep | Casa Pia | Home | D 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 31 Aug | Braga | Away | L 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
Vitória’s defence is holding up. The trouble is at the other end. They have conceded 6 and scored only 2 in their last five, and they failed to score in 3 of those games. Both home matches ended level: 0-0 at home to Casa Pia and 1-1 at home to Moreirense. The latest result, a 0-2 defeat away at Benfica in the Primeira Liga, was no disgrace. Still, the pattern is plain. Tiago Margarido’s side keep games tight and then cannot break them open. For a club with Vitória’s support and ambitions, 15th after eight rounds is a real problem. The home crowd will want front-foot football, and the forwards have to turn territory into chances.
The State of Marítimo
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Marítimo’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Porto | Home | L 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| 19 Sep | Gil Vicente | Away | D 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 14 Sep | Moreirense | Away | L 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| 5 Sep | Benfica | Home | L 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| 29 Aug | Arouca | Away | L 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
Mitchell van der Gaag’s Marítimo have the opposite problem. They score, with 4 goals in five, but they leak: 11 conceded and no clean sheet in that run. The 1-2 defeat at home to Porto in the Primeira Liga showed they can stay with the leaders. The 1-3 loss away at Moreirense showed how fast their shape can fold. Their only point in the run came from a 1-1 draw away at Gil Vicente, and that is the template for Friday: stay compact, keep the game alive and look for something on the break.
Head-to-Head
The record is one-sided. Vitória have won 6 of the last 8 meetings, Marítimo none, with 2 draws. In Guimarães, Vitória won all 4 games in the sample, each by a single goal. Marítimo scored in only 2 of the 8 meetings. The most recent one, on 29 April 2023, ended Marítimo 1-2 Vitória on Madeira.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Vitória’s blunt attack against Marítimo’s soft back line. A defence without a clean sheet in five is the best chance Vitória’s forwards have had in weeks. Set pieces and early crosses matter here. If Vitória score first, Marítimo have to open up, and their recent games show what happens to their shape when they do. If it is still 0-0 after the hour, the home crowd will get nervous, and Marítimo’s counter-attack becomes the bigger threat.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Vitória a 56% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 19% for Marítimo. Expected goals: 1.6–0.8. That lean comes from Vitória’s perfect home record in this fixture and Marítimo’s habit of conceding, set against a home side that rarely lets games get open. Vitória’s goal drought keeps the margin narrow. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Vitória 1-0 Marítimo
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Friday 23 October 2026, 19:45 UTC / 20:45 WEST (Fri 23 Oct) / 20:45 BST (Fri 23 Oct) / 3:45 PM EDT (Fri 23 Oct)
- Venue: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
- Competition: Primeira Liga, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Vitória vs Marítimo?
- Kickoff: Friday 23 October 2026, 19:45 UTC / 20:45 WEST (Fri 23 Oct) / 20:45 BST (Fri 23 Oct) / 3:45 PM EDT (Fri 23 Oct)
- Where is Vitória vs Marítimo being played?
- Venue: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
- How can I watch Vitória vs Marítimo in the US?
- Where to watch: beIN Sports (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Vitória and Marítimo?
- Vitória won the most recent meeting 2-1 at Marítimo's ground on 29 April 2023. Vitória have won 6 of the last 8 meetings, and Marítimo have won none.
- What is the predicted score for Vitória vs Marítimo?
- We predict Vitória 1-0 Marítimo. Vitória won all four recent meetings in Guimarães by one goal, and Marítimo have not kept a clean sheet in their last five games.