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Match Prediction
Bologna win
Draw
Inter Milan win
Bologna or draw
Inter Milan or draw
Expected goals: 0.9 – 1.6 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 14 Oct 2026, 06:37 UTC · Track record
Leaders Walk Into Bologna’s Bogey Ground
Inter Milan go into the round top of Serie A on 16 points from six games. Bologna sit 14th on 5 points, so the visitors are 13 places and 11 points better off. On paper this is a mismatch, but the Dall’Ara has hurt Inter more than most grounds: Bologna have won three of the last five meetings played here.
The State of Bologna
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Bologna’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Lecce | Away | W 2-1 | Serie A |
| 19 Sep | Torino | Home | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 13 Sep | Napoli | Away | L 0-1 | Serie A |
| 6 Sep | Sassuolo | Home | D 2-2 | Serie A |
| 31 Aug | Atalanta | Away | L 0-1 | Serie A |
Domenico Tedesco’s side finally found a league win, 2-1 away at Lecce in Serie A, and that ended a run of two draws and two defeats. The tally is plain: five scored, six conceded, no clean sheets and two games without a goal. The home record is the strange part. Bologna have played two at the Dall’Ara and drawn both, including 1-1 at home to Torino. This team is rarely blown away, but it has struggled to finish matches off. Tedesco wants an aggressive press and quick vertical passes into the channels. When the chances dry up, the margin for error gets very thin.
The State of Inter Milan
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Inter Milan’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Parma | Home | W 3-0 | Serie A |
| 19 Sep | Roma | Away | D 2-2 | Serie A |
| 14 Sep | Udinese | Home | W 5-3 | Serie A |
| 8 Sep | Real Madrid | Away | L 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| 5 Sep | Napoli | Home | W 3-2 | Serie A |
Cristian Chivu’s Inter score freely, with 14 goals in their last five games across all competitions. The problem is at the other end: they conceded nine in the same run, including a 5-3 win at home to Udinese. The only defeat was 1-2 away at Real Madrid in the Champions League. The split by venue tells the story. Inter have won all three of those home games but none of their two away, and they drew 2-2 away at Roma in Serie A. Leading the table while leaking goals on the road is exactly the profile Bologna will want to test.
Head-to-Head
The last meeting, on 23 May 2026 at the Dall’Ara, finished Bologna 3-3 Inter. Before that, Inter won 3-1 at home on 4 January 2026. Across the nine meetings shown, each side has three wins and there have been three draws. Bologna have scored in eight of those nine. Only three of the nine produced two goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The space behind Inter’s wide players is the key. Inter push numbers forward to create overloads, and that is how they scored three against Parma. It is also how Roma and Udinese got at them. Bologna’s quickest route to goal is a turnover in midfield and a fast ball into the channel before Inter’s back line resets. If Bologna’s press wins the ball high, this becomes an open game. If Inter pass through it cleanly, Bologna’s lack of clean sheets becomes the bigger story.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Bologna a 22% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 51% for Inter Milan. Expected goals: 0.9–1.6. Inter’s attack and league position drive that read, although Bologna’s home record against them is a real counterweight. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.7%, but the win probabilities favour Inter, so we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Bologna 0-1 Inter Milan
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:00 UTC / 18:00 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 12:00 PM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 17:00 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Bologna vs Inter Milan?
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:00 UTC / 18:00 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 12:00 PM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 17:00 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Where is Bologna vs Inter Milan being played?
- Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
- How can I watch Bologna vs Inter Milan on TV?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
- Who won the last meeting between Bologna and Inter Milan?
- Nobody. The last meeting, on 23 May 2026 at the Dall'Ara, ended Bologna 3-3 Inter Milan.
- What is the predicted score for Bologna vs Inter Milan?
- Our prediction is Bologna 0-1 Inter Milan. Inter's attack and league position make them favourites, but Bologna's home record against them keeps the margin narrow.