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Match Prediction
Lazio win
Draw
Parma win
Lazio or draw
Parma or draw
Expected goals: 1.8 – 0.7 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 20:56 UTC · Track record
Parma Arrive Needing a Response
Parma come to the Stadio Olimpico after two straight 0-3 defeats in Serie A. A third heavy loss would turn an awkward October into a real problem. Lazio face a side that has conceded 10 goals in its last five games without a single clean sheet. A home crowd at the Olimpico will expect three points from this Matchday 8 fixture.
The State of Lazio
No recent results are available for the home side, so the case for Lazio rests on personnel. Gennaro Gattuso’s sides are built on intensity and aggression without the ball, and the back line he can pick from has real quality. Alessio Romagnoli’s left foot starts much of the build-up from centre-back, with Josip Šutalo and Danilho Doekhi competing to partner him. The width is the interesting part. Nuno Tavares brings raw power and long carries from left-back, while Adam Marušić and Manuel Lazzari give options on the right. Christos Mandas is the goalkeeper, and he is comfortable playing out under pressure.
The State of Parma
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Parma’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct | Torino | Home | L 0-3 | Serie A |
| 10 Oct | Inter Milan | Away | L 0-3 | Serie A |
| 20 Sep | Genoa | Home | W 2-1 | Serie A |
| 14 Sep | Como | Away | L 1-2 | Serie A |
| 6 Sep | Monza | Home | D 1-1 | Serie A |
Carlos Cuesta’s side have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last five, with 4 goals scored and 10 conceded. The two most recent results tell the story: they lost 0-3 away at Inter Milan, then lost 0-3 at home to Torino. Their only win in that run came 2-1 at home to Genoa. Away from home, they have lost both games. Adrián Bernabé is the player who makes them dangerous, a left-footed creator who drifts between the lines. Hans Nicolussi Caviglia sets the tempo beside him. At the back, Enrico Del Prato and Diego Carlos bring experience, but the unit has not held firm lately.
Head-to-Head
No head-to-head data is available for this preview, so the recent record between the clubs is not assessed here.
👀 What to Watch
The left flank of Lazio is where this could be decided. If Tavares pushes high, Sascha Britschgi will spend most of the night defending rather than joining attacks, and Parma lose an outlet. The other storyline is Bernabé against the Lazio press. If he finds space to turn, Parma can carry a threat. If he is hunted down early, Parma may struggle to create anything, as happened in their two recent shutouts.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Lazio a 64% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 13% for Parma. Expected goals: 1.8–0.7. Parma’s defensive record and their two blank scorelines in a row drive this read, along with their losses in both recent away games. A tight home win is the most likely shape of the evening. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Lazio 1-0 Parma
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Lazio vs Parma?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Lazio vs Parma being played?
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico
- How can I watch Lazio vs Parma on TV?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
- What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Parma?
- Our prediction is Lazio 1-0 Parma. Parma have conceded 10 goals in their last five games and failed to score in their last two, so a narrow home win is the likeliest outcome.
- How has Parma been playing this season?
- Parma have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last five games, with 4 goals scored and 10 conceded. They arrive after back-to-back 0-3 losses to Inter Milan and Torino.