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Match Prediction
Juventus win
Draw
Lazio win
Juventus or draw
Lazio or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 17:05 UTC · Track record
Lazio’s Unbeaten Run Meets the Turin Test
Lazio go into the round second on 16 points from six games. Juventus sit sixth on 11, four places and five points behind. A home defeat for Luciano Spalletti’s side would let Gennaro Gattuso’s Lazio pull further clear of a direct rival for the top four. A home win puts Juventus right back in the conversation.
The State of Juventus
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Juventus’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Cagliari | Away | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 20 Sep | Atalanta | Home | W 2-0 | Serie A |
| 13 Sep | Sassuolo | Away | L 2-3 | Serie A |
| 6 Sep | Milan | Home | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 29 Aug | Parma | Home | W 2-0 | Serie A |
Juventus have two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five, with eight scored and five conceded. The split tells the story. They are unbeaten in three at home in that run but have not won either away trip. The low point was a defeat in which they lost 2-3 away at Sassuolo, conceding three to a side they expect to handle. The model for this weekend is the controlled afternoon when they won 2-0 at home to Atalanta. Spalletti’s teams want the ball, rotate players between the lines and push full-backs inside to crowd the middle. When that structure holds, Juventus suffocate opponents. When it breaks, they leave space behind, which is exactly what Lazio hunt.
The State of Lazio
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Lazio’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Monza | Home | W 3-1 | Serie A |
| 19 Sep | Venezia | Away | W 2-0 | Serie A |
| 12 Sep | Milan | Home | D 2-2 | Serie A |
| 7 Sep | Udinese | Away | W 2-1 | Serie A |
| 30 Aug | Genoa | Home | W 1-0 | Serie A |
Lazio arrive with four wins and a draw from their last five, ten scored and four conceded. They have won both away games in that run. Their most recent outing ended with a 3-1 win at home to Monza. The only points dropped came when they drew 2-2 at home to Milan. Gattuso’s Lazio play with intensity: an aggressive press, quick vertical passes after winning the ball and a back line willing to step up. They have scored in every one of the five games listed.
Head-to-Head
Lazio lead the last seven meetings with three wins to Juventus’ two, with two draws. Turin tells a different tale: Juventus have won two of the three meetings at their ground and Lazio have won none. The most recent meeting, on 8 February 2026, finished Juventus 2-2 Lazio in Turin. Before that, Lazio won 1-0 at home on 26 October 2025. Lazio have scored in six of the seven meetings, so a Juventus clean sheet would be a break from the pattern.
👀 What to Watch
The key duel is Lazio’s press against Juventus’ build-up. If Juventus play out cleanly through the first wave, their inverted full-backs and midfield runners can pin Lazio back. If Lazio force turnovers high, Juventus’ rest defence becomes the issue, the same weakness exposed at Sassuolo. Watch also how Lazio’s away form holds up in a stadium where they have no recent wins.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Juventus a 48% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 25% for Lazio. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0. Home advantage drives the read: Juventus are unbeaten at home in their recent form and Lazio have not won in Turin in this sample, even though Lazio carry the better form. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.0%, but with the win probabilities favouring Juventus we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Juventus 1-0 Lazio
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: Allianz Stadium
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Juventus vs Lazio?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Juventus vs Lazio being played?
- Venue: Allianz Stadium
- What channel is Juventus vs Lazio on?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
- Who won the last meeting between Juventus and Lazio?
- Nobody. The last meeting, on 8 February 2026 in Turin, ended Juventus 2-2 Lazio.
- What is the predicted score for Juventus vs Lazio?
- Our prediction is Juventus 1-0 Lazio. Juventus are unbeaten at home in their recent form and Lazio have not won in Turin in the recent head-to-head record.