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Match Prediction
Udinese win
Draw
Milan win
Udinese or draw
Milan or draw
Expected goals: 1.0 – 1.5 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 20:53 UTC · Track record
Five Straight Defeats Meet Unbeaten Milan
Udinese close Matchday 8 at the Bluenergy Stadium after losing five games in a row. They go into the round 16th on 4 points from 7 games. Milan sit 4th on 15 points and are unbeaten in their last five. That leaves the visitors 11 points and 12 places clear of their hosts. For Kosta Runjaić this is about stopping a slide, while Ruben Amorim needs his side to turn away draws into wins.
The State of Udinese
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Udinese’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Lecce | Home | L 0-3 | Serie A |
| 12 Oct | Torino | Away | L 1-2 | Serie A |
| 19 Sep | Cagliari | Home | L 0-1 | Serie A |
| 14 Sep | Inter Milan | Away | L 3-5 | Serie A |
| 7 Sep | Lazio | Home | L 1-2 | Serie A |
The tally is grim: no wins in five, 5 goals scored, 13 conceded and no clean sheet. Their most recent game was the worst of the run, a 0-3 loss at home to Lecce. The 3-5 defeat away at Inter Milan showed the other side of the problem: this team can still create chances against strong opposition, but it concedes too easily in open play. All three of their home games in this run ended in defeat, and the crowd in Udine will want a reaction. Runjaić’s teams press hard and get the ball forward quickly to a physical striker. When that press is beaten, the back line is left exposed.
The State of Milan
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Milan’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Atalanta | Home | W 3-2 | Serie A |
| 11 Oct | Sassuolo | Away | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 20 Sep | Lecce | Home | W 3-0 | Serie A |
| 12 Sep | Lazio | Away | D 2-2 | Serie A |
| 6 Sep | Juventus | Away | D 1-1 | Serie A |
Milan have 2 wins and 3 draws from five, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their latest result, a 3-2 win at home to Atalanta, showed they can win a game that turns open. Away from home, though, they have drawn all three, including 1-1 away at Juventus and 2-2 away at Lazio. Amorim’s structure relies on wing-backs pushing high and the wide centre-backs stepping into midfield. That approach brings plenty of attacking threat but leaves room behind when the ball is lost.
Head-to-Head
Milan lead the last 10 meetings with 5 wins to Udinese’s 3, with 2 draws. In Udine they have won 3 of the last 5, including a 0-4 on 11 April 2025 and a 0-3 on 20 September 2025. The most recent meeting went the other way. On 11 April 2026, Udinese won 3-0 at Milan’s ground, so the hosts know this opponent can be beaten.
👀 What to Watch
The space down the flanks will decide this game. Milan’s wing-backs push high, and that leaves room behind them for Udinese’s direct balls and quick counters. That is the hosts’ clearest route to goal. Against that, an Udinese defence that has failed to keep a clean sheet in five games now faces a side that scored in every one of its last five.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Udinese a 23% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 50% for Milan. Expected goals: 1.0–1.5. Udinese’s run of five defeats and Milan’s unbeaten run point towards the visitors, though Milan’s three away draws suggest a tight game rather than a rout. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.8%, but with the win probabilities favouring Milan we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Udinese 0-1 Milan
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 19:45 UTC / 20:45 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 3:45 PM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 19:45 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Bluenergy Stadium
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Udinese vs Milan?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 19:45 UTC / 20:45 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 3:45 PM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 19:45 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Udinese vs Milan being played?
- Venue: Bluenergy Stadium
- Where can I watch Udinese vs Milan on TV?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
- Who won the last meeting between Udinese and Milan?
- Udinese won the most recent meeting 3-0 at Milan's ground on 11 April 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Udinese vs Milan?
- Our prediction is Udinese 0-1 Milan. Udinese have lost five in a row, while Milan are unbeaten in their last five but have drawn all three of their recent away games.