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Match Prediction
Celta Vigo win
Draw
Alavés win
Celta Vigo or draw
Alavés or draw
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.9 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:59 UTC · Track record
Celta Need Balaídos to Turn Draws Into Wins
Celta Vigo go into Matchday 9 ninth on 8 points from 8 games. Alavés sit two places and 3 points above them in seventh. Claudio’s side have stopped losing but not started winning, while Quique Sanchez Flores brings a team to Vigo that is without a win in four.
The State of Celta Vigo
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Celta Vigo’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Elche | Away | D 0-0 | Primera Division |
| 19 Sep | Racing Santander | Home | W 5-0 | Primera Division |
| 13 Sep | Málaga | Home | D 1-1 | Primera Division |
| 7 Sep | Getafe | Away | D 1-1 | Primera Division |
| 3 Sep | Real Sociedad | Away | D 0-0 | Primera Division |
One win and four draws from the last five sums up Celta: hard to beat, hard work in front of goal. They have kept 3 clean sheets and conceded only 2 goals in that run, but they also failed to score twice. The most recent was a 0-0 draw away at Elche. The outlier was the 5-0 win at home to Racing Santander, proof that this attack can run riot when Balaídos gets behind it.
The pattern splits by venue. Away from Vigo it reads three games, three draws. At home it is 1 won and 1 drawn. Celta build patiently through midfield and push their full-backs on, so the home crowd matters: it quickens a tempo that can otherwise drift.
The State of Alavés
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Alavés’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Atletico Madrid | Home | L 1-2 | Primera Division |
| 19 Sep | Athletic Bilbao | Away | D 0-0 | Primera Division |
| 15 Sep | Valencia | Home | L 0-1 | Primera Division |
| 12 Sep | Racing Santander | Away | L 1-2 | Primera Division |
| 6 Sep | Osasuna | Home | W 5-2 | Primera Division |
Alavés have gone the other way. The 5-2 win at home to Osasuna looked like a launch point. Instead they are without a win in four since, and only a 0-0 draw away at Athletic Bilbao has broken up the defeats. The latest was a 1-2 loss at home to Atletico Madrid, a competitive display that still ended with nothing.
The defensive base has thinned. They have 1 clean sheet and 7 goals conceded across the five. Teams coached by Sanchez Flores defend compactly and play directly, so expect Alavés to give Celta the ball and wait for transitions.
Head-to-Head
Celta have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, against 2 for Alavés, with 2 draws. At Balaídos the record is 3 Celta wins, 1 for Alavés and 1 draw. That one Alavés win is the most recent meeting, though: Celta Vigo 3-4 Alavés in La Liga on 22 March 2026. Before that, Celta won 1-0 at Alavés on 22 November 2025.
👀 What to Watch
Celta’s problem is breaking down a low block. Against Elche and Real Sociedad away they had the ball and nothing to show for it. Alavés will sit deeper than either. The key question is whether Celta’s full-backs can supply the width and crosses to stretch them.
The risk runs the other way too. Those advanced full-backs leave space behind, and the 3-4 in March showed Alavés can punish an open Celta.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Celta Vigo a 54% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 20% for Alavés. Expected goals: 1.6–0.9. Celta’s defensive record and their strong head-to-head record at Balaídos drive that read, helped by Alavés’s winless run. Celta’s habit of drawing means a narrow margin is the likeliest shape. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Celta Vigo 1-0 Alavés
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 14:15 UTC / 16:15 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 10:15 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 15:15 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: Abanca-Balaídos
- Competition: La Liga, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
FAQ
- What time is Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 14:15 UTC / 16:15 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 10:15 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 15:15 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Celta Vigo vs Alavés being played?
- Venue: Abanca-Balaídos
- How can I watch Celta Vigo vs Alavés on TV?
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Celta Vigo and Alavés?
- Alavés won 4-3 at Celta's ground in La Liga on 22 March 2026 (Celta Vigo 3-4 Alavés).
- What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
- Our prediction is Celta Vigo 1-0 Alavés. Celta have conceded only 2 goals in their last five games, and Alavés are without a win in four.