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Match Prediction
AZ win
Draw
Twente win
AZ or draw
Twente or draw
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.2 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 21:28 UTC · Track record
Second Hosts Fifth in Alkmaar
AZ go into Matchday 10 second on 20 points from nine games, three places and three points clear of fifth-placed Twente. Sunday night at the AFAS Stadion closes the round with a direct contest between two clubs chasing European football. Neither has won in its last two.
The State of AZ
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows AZ’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Cambuur | Away | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 10 Oct | Feyenoord | Away | L 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| 20 Sep | Telstar | Home | W 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| 11 Sep | Willem II | Home | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 6 Sep | Heerenveen | Away | W 3-2 | Eredivisie |
Leeroy Echteld’s side have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from their last five, with seven goals scored and seven conceded. The 0-2 away at Feyenoord was the only game in that run where they failed to score. They followed it with a 2-2 away at Cambuur, which left points behind on a day they found the net twice. The concern is at the back: one clean sheet in five, the 1-0 at home to Telstar.
AZ remain what they have been for years. They build through their academy, press high and push their full-backs on to stretch the pitch. At home in this run they won one and drew one, without losing.
The State of Twente
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Twente’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Utrecht | Home | L 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| 10 Oct | Fortuna Sittard | Away | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 20 Sep | PSV | Home | W 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| 12 Sep | ADO Den Haag | Home | W 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| 9 Sep | Telstar | Home | W 1-0 | Eredivisie |
John van den Brom’s Twente have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from their last five, scoring eight and conceding five. They scored in every one of those games. The standout is the 3-2 at home to PSV, a result that showed how dangerous they are at full pace in transition.
The caveat is the venue. Four of those five games were at home, and the most recent was a 1-2 at home to Utrecht. Their only trip in the run was a 1-1 away at Fortuna Sittard. Alkmaar is a far sterner test of their away form.
Head-to-Head
Across the last nine meetings, Twente lead with four wins to AZ’s three, plus two draws. Seven of the nine were decided by a single goal. The most recent ended AZ 2-2 FC Twente ‘65 at AZ’s ground on 3 May 2026. Before that, Twente won 1-0 at home on 30 November 2025. AZ have hosted five of the nine: two AZ wins, one Twente win and two draws.
👀 What to Watch
The key question is whether AZ can stop conceding. Twente scored in eight of the nine meetings and in all of their last five games. An AZ back line that has kept one clean sheet in five will be tested every time Twente win the ball and break. If AZ’s press is beaten, the space behind their advanced full-backs is where Twente will attack.
At the other end, Twente kept two clean sheets in their last five. AZ need patience in possession rather than the open game Twente enjoyed against PSV.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives AZ a 40% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 32% for Twente. Expected goals: 1.3–1.2. The most likely single scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring AZ, we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. Home advantage and a run of one-goal margins in this fixture support a tight AZ win, though Twente’s habit of scoring against AZ makes a shutout far from certain. These are model projections for informational use, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: AZ 1-0 Twente
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 20:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 19:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: AFAS Stadion
- Competition: Eredivisie, Matchday 10
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
FAQ
- What time is AZ vs Twente?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 20:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 19:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is AZ vs Twente being played?
- Venue: AFAS Stadion
- How can I watch AZ vs Twente?
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
- Who won the last meeting between AZ and Twente?
- Nobody. The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026 at AZ's ground, ended AZ 2-2 FC Twente '65.
- What is the predicted score for AZ vs Twente?
- Our prediction is AZ 1-0 Twente. Home advantage and a fixture where seven of the last nine meetings were decided by one goal point to a narrow AZ win.