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Match Prediction
Birmingham win
Draw
QPR win
Birmingham or draw
QPR or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Track record
Fourth Against Fifth, Level on Points
Birmingham go into the round fourth on 17 points from 10 games, and QPR are fifth on exactly the same total. Birmingham sit above only on the table’s tiebreak. Matchday 11 ends with two promotion contenders meeting at St Andrew’s @ Knighthead Park, and nothing separates them on points.
The State of Birmingham
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Birmingham’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | Preston | Home | W 4-0 | Championship |
| 10 Oct | West Brom | Away | W 1-0 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Middlesbrough | Home | D 2-2 | Championship |
| 12 Sep | Derby | Away | W 2-1 | Championship |
| 9 Sep | Norwich | Away | L 1-2 | Championship |
Chris Davies’s side arrive on two straight wins and unbeaten in four. The 4-0 win at home to Preston in the Championship was their loudest result of the run. The 1-0 win away at West Brom showed a different quality: they ground out a West Midlands derby away from home. Across the five games they won 3, drew 1 and lost 1, with 10 scored, 5 conceded and two clean sheets. They scored in every one of those matches. That steady threat is the main story for a club that came up from League One in record-breaking fashion and has carried that momentum into the second tier. The one defeat in the run, 1-2 away at Norwich, shows they can be hurt when a game opens up.
The State of QPR
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows QPR’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | Derby | Home | W 4-1 | Championship |
| 9 Oct | West Ham | Away | D 1-1 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Preston | Home | D 2-2 | Championship |
| 12 Sep | West Brom | Away | D 1-1 | Championship |
| 9 Sep | Charlton | Away | D 0-0 | Championship |
Julien Stéphan’s QPR are unbeaten in five, but four of those five were draws. The 4-1 win at home to Derby in the Championship broke that run in style. Before that, the 1-1 draw away at West Ham showed they can hold their own against one of the division’s biggest budgets. Their away results in this run read three games, three draws. They have conceded 5 in five and kept one clean sheet. This QPR side is hard to beat, but it still has to show it can turn a tight away game into three points.
Head-to-Head
The last 10 meetings are dead level: 4 wins each and 2 draws. The most recent was on 11 March 2026, when Birmingham beat QPR 1-0 at home. QPR had won the previous meeting 2-1 at home in December 2025. Venue matters here. Birmingham have won 3 of the 5 meetings they hosted, lost 1 and drawn 1. Goals have been scarce. No side has scored more than twice in any of the 10 meetings, and 6 of them had 2 goals or fewer in total.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Birmingham’s attack against QPR’s defence. Birmingham have scored in all five of their recent matches. QPR have conceded only 5 in their five. If QPR repeat their away pattern and keep the game tight, Birmingham must find a way through a deep block. If QPR score first, the Norwich defeat suggests Birmingham can struggle when they have to chase a game.
Rest is a smaller factor. Birmingham last played on 13 October and QPR on 14 October, so the home side get one extra day to recover. That could shape how much each manager rotates.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Birmingham a 49% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 24% for QPR. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0. Birmingham’s form, their home record against QPR and the low-scoring history of this fixture all point to a narrow home win. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.9%. QPR’s run of away draws makes that a real risk. But with the win probabilities favouring Birmingham, we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Birmingham 1-0 QPR
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 17 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Venue: St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
- Competition: Championship, Matchday 11
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
FAQ
- What time is Birmingham vs QPR?
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 17 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Where is Birmingham vs QPR being played?
- Venue: St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
- How can I watch Birmingham vs QPR on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Birmingham and QPR?
- Birmingham won 1-0 at home on 11 March 2026. Across the last 10 meetings, each side has won 4 and 2 ended level.
- What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs QPR?
- Our prediction is Birmingham 1-0 QPR. Birmingham's recent form and their home record in this fixture favour a narrow home win, although 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline.