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Match Prediction
Freiburg win
Draw
Bayern Munich win
Freiburg or draw
Bayern Munich or draw
Expected goals: 0.8 – 1.7 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 23 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Track record
Third Hosts First, One Point Apart
Freiburg go into Matchday 7 third on 13 points from 6 games. Bayern Munich lead the table on 14, so just one point and two places separate them before this round. Julian Schuster’s side close the round against the one club they have failed to beat in all nine meetings on record. This is a chance to show their start is more than a soft schedule.
The State of Freiburg
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Freiburg’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Bayer Leverkusen | Away | L 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| 11 Oct | Schalke | Home | W 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Frankfurt | Away | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Mönchengladbach | Home | W 5-0 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Paderborn | Away | W 1-0 | Bundesliga |
Freiburg come into this game after a 1-2 defeat away at Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. That is the only loss in their last five: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost, with 11 scored and 5 conceded. They scored in every one of those games. At home they won both, including a 5-0 win at home to Mönchengladbach. The Freiburg model holds: a compact block, fast vertical passing once they win the ball and real danger from dead balls. They do not need the ball to hurt a side. They need the right moments, and the Europa-Park Stadion gives them the crowd to press when those moments come.
The State of Bayern Munich
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Bayern Munich’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct | Arsenal | Home | D 2-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| 17 Oct | RB Leipzig | Home | W 6-1 | Bundesliga |
| 13 Oct | Viking | Away | D 3-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Oct | Augsburg | Away | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 18 Sep | Union Berlin | Home | W 7-0 | Bundesliga |
Bayern are unbeaten in their last five, but three of those were draws. At home the attack has been ruthless, with a 6-1 win at home to RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga. Away from Munich the picture changes. They drew 2-2 away at Augsburg and 3-3 away at Viking in the Champions League, which means five goals conceded in two away games. Vincent Kompany’s team also drew 2-2 at home to Arsenal in the Champions League four days before this trip. Their high line and their push of full-backs into midfield produce chances in bulk, but they leave space behind.
Head-to-Head
The record is lopsided: Bayern have 8 wins, there is 1 draw and Freiburg have none. Bayern scored in all nine meetings. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, when Bayern won 2-3 away at Freiburg. Freiburg’s only result in this sample came on 1 March 2024, a 2-2 draw at home.
👀 What to Watch
The space behind Bayern’s defence. Augsburg and Viking both found it, and Freiburg are built to attack it in transition. If Freiburg can win the ball in midfield and go forward within a few passes, Bayern’s centre-backs will face direct runs in open space. The opposite risk is clear too. Leverkusen found gaps in Freiburg’s block, and Bayern’s attack pins teams back for long spells.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Freiburg a 16% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 59% for Bayern Munich. Expected goals: 0.8–1.7. The head-to-head record and Bayern’s scoring power carry this read, but Bayern’s away draws and their Champions League workload give Freiburg a path. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Freiburg 0-1 Bayern Munich
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:30 UTC / 17:30 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 12:30 PM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 16:30 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Europa-Park Stadion
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:30 UTC / 17:30 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 12:30 PM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 16:30 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Freiburg vs Bayern Munich being played?
- Venue: Europa-Park Stadion
- How can I watch Freiburg vs Bayern Munich on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Freiburg and Bayern Munich?
- Bayern Munich won the last meeting 3-2 at Freiburg on 4 April 2026 (Freiburg 2-3 Bayern Munich).
- What is the predicted score for Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
- Our prediction is Freiburg 0-1 Bayern Munich. Bayern have won eight of the last nine meetings, but Freiburg's compact home shape should keep the margin narrow.