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Match Prediction
Paris FC win
Draw
Rennes win
Paris FC or draw
Rennes or draw
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.3 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · Track record
Third Visits Fifth at Jean-Bouin
Rennes go into the round third on 13 points from six games. Paris FC sit fifth on 11, two places and two points behind. This Matchday 7 fixture is a direct contest between two clubs near the top of Ligue 1, and Paris FC have lost both recent meetings with this opponent.
The State of Paris FC
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Paris FC’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Lorient | Away | L 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 19 Sep | Strasbourg | Home | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 12 Sep | Lyon | Home | D 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| 6 Sep | Marseille | Away | W 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 30 Aug | Nice | Home | W 3-0 | Ligue 1 |
Liam Rosenior’s side lost 0-1 away at Lorient in their most recent game. It was their only defeat in a five-game run of 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost, with 8 goals scored and 4 conceded. The result that stands out is the 3-2 win away at Marseille, which showed this group can hold its nerve in a hostile stadium.
Home form is their strongest argument. They have 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 games at home in this run, and 2 clean sheets overall. The worry is at the other end: they failed to score in 2 of the 5 games, including the Lorient trip. When the build-up from the back gets stuck, Paris FC struggle to create chances any other way.
The State of Rennes
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Rennes’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Auxerre | Home | W 4-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 19 Sep | Lyon | Away | L 0-4 | Ligue 1 |
| 11 Sep | Marseille | Home | W 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| 6 Sep | Angers | Away | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 30 Aug | Le Mans | Home | W 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
Franck Haise’s Rennes have 4 wins and 1 loss from their last five, with 10 scored and 8 conceded. Those numbers show a team that commits players forward and accepts the risk. They won 4-1 at home to Auxerre after a 0-4 defeat away at Lyon. That Lyon game showed how open Rennes become when an opponent plays through their press.
Away from home the record is split: 1 win, 1 loss. Rennes are more dangerous at home, where they won all 3 games in this run.
Head-to-Head
Rennes won both meetings in the sample, each by one goal. On 7 November 2025, Paris FC 0-1 Rennes was played at Paris FC’s ground. On 10 May 2026, Rennes 2-1 Paris FC was played at Rennes’ ground. Paris FC scored in only one of the two games.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Paris FC’s defence against the Rennes attack. Paris FC have conceded 4 in five games, and Rennes have scored 10. If Paris FC keep their shape and stay compact, Rennes may not find the space they need.
The counter-attack is the second point. Lyon scored four against Rennes by attacking them in transition. Paris FC scored three at Marseille, so they can hurt a team that pushes high. The question is whether they will risk enough possession to try it.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Paris FC a 34% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 38% for Rennes. Expected goals: 1.2–1.3. Rennes won both recent meetings by a single goal, and Paris FC failed to score at Lorient in their last game. Those two facts push the read slightly toward the visitors. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.5%, but with the win probabilities favouring Rennes we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Paris FC 0-1 Rennes
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:15 UTC / 17:15 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 11:15 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 16:15 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: Stade Jean-Bouin
- Competition: Ligue 1, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Paris FC vs Rennes?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:15 UTC / 17:15 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 11:15 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 16:15 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Paris FC vs Rennes being played?
- Venue: Stade Jean-Bouin
- How can I watch Paris FC vs Rennes on TV?
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Paris FC and Rennes?
- Rennes won the last meeting 2-1 at their own ground on 10 May 2026. They also won the meeting before that, 1-0 in Paris on 7 November 2025.
- What is the predicted score for Paris FC vs Rennes?
- Our prediction is Paris FC 0-1 Rennes. Rennes have won both recent meetings by one goal, and the model gives them a slightly higher chance of winning.