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Match Prediction
Monza win
Draw
Cagliari win
Monza or draw
Cagliari or draw
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.3 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 17:06 UTC · Track record
Strugglers Host the Surprise Package
Monza go into the round 16th on 4 points from 6 games. Cagliari sit 4th on 13 points, so 12 places and 9 points separate them. This Monday evening game at the U-Power Stadium pits a promoted-looking defence that keeps leaking goals against one of the meanest back lines in the top half.
The State of Monza
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Monza’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Lazio | Away | L 1-3 | Serie A |
| 18 Sep | Sassuolo | Home | W 2-1 | Serie A |
| 13 Sep | Lecce | Away | L 2-3 | Serie A |
| 6 Sep | Parma | Away | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 29 Aug | Udinese | Home | L 2-3 | Serie A |
The tally tells the story: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 11 goals conceded and no clean sheet. Monza do score. They found the net in all five games and scored 8. The problem is the other end. Their lone win came 2-1 at home to Sassuolo in Serie A. The most recent result was a 1-3 loss away at Lazio, where the gap in quality showed.
Ivan Juric’s sides press man-to-man across the pitch and attack quickly once they win the ball. That approach creates chances, but it also leaves one-on-one duels all over the pitch. When a marker loses his man, there is little cover behind. Too many of those duels have been lost so far.
The State of Cagliari
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Cagliari’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Juventus | Home | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 19 Sep | Udinese | Away | W 1-0 | Serie A |
| 12 Sep | Atalanta | Away | W 2-1 | Serie A |
| 7 Sep | Lecce | Home | W 1-0 | Serie A |
| 30 Aug | Inter Milan | Home | L 0-1 | Serie A |
Fabio Pisacane’s side are unbeaten in their last 4, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss across the five games listed. They have conceded only 3 goals and kept 2 clean sheets. Away from Sardinia they are perfect in this sample: 2 games, 2 wins. The standout was a 2-1 win away at Atalanta in Serie A. Most recently they drew 1-1 at home to Juventus.
This is a low-margin team. They have scored only 5 goals in those five games, so the wins come from structure, compact distances and patience rather than volume of chances.
Head-to-Head
Cagliari have won the last two meetings. On 30 March 2025 they beat Monza 3-0 in Sardinia, the widest margin in the recent series. On 5 January 2025 they won 1-2 at Monza’s ground. Monza’s last win was a 1-0 home victory on 16 March 2024. Across the four meetings, Cagliari have 2 wins, Monza 1, with 1 draw.
👀 What to Watch
The key duel is Monza’s pressing against Cagliari’s patience. If the home side win the ball high, they can hurt a side that does not chase games. If Cagliari play through the first line, Monza’s man-marking leaves space behind, and that is exactly where this visiting team has picked off results away from home.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Monza a 33% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 39% for Cagliari. Expected goals: 1.2–1.3. Cagliari’s defensive record and away wins outweigh Monza’s home advantage, though Monza’s habit of scoring in every game keeps this close. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring Cagliari we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Monza 0-1 Cagliari
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Monday 19 October 2026, 16:30 UTC / 18:30 CEST (Mon 19 Oct) / 12:30 PM EDT (Mon 19 Oct) / 17:30 BST (Mon 19 Oct)
- Venue: U-Power Stadium
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Monza vs Cagliari?
- Kickoff: Monday 19 October 2026, 16:30 UTC / 18:30 CEST (Mon 19 Oct) / 12:30 PM EDT (Mon 19 Oct) / 17:30 BST (Mon 19 Oct)
- Where is Monza vs Cagliari being played?
- Venue: U-Power Stadium
- How can I watch Monza vs Cagliari on TV?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
- Who won the last meeting between Monza and Cagliari?
- Cagliari won the last meeting 3-0 at home on 30 March 2025. They also won the meeting before that 1-2 at Monza.
- What is the predicted score for Monza vs Cagliari?
- Our prediction is Monza 0-1 Cagliari. Cagliari concede few goals and have won both of their recent away games, while Monza have not kept a clean sheet in their last five.