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Match Prediction
Alverca win
Draw
Arouca win
Alverca or draw
Arouca or draw
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.1 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:47 UTC · Track record
Fifth Place Visits a Side on a Run
Alverca go into the round 7th on 11 points from 8 games. Arouca sit two places and three points above them, fifth on 14. Sergio Ferreira’s side arrive on three straight league wins, so this is a direct test of whether they can close on the group just behind the top four.
The State of Alverca
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Alverca’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct | Famalicão | Away | W 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 19 Sep | Rio Ave | Home | W 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 12 Sep | Nacional | Away | W 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 5 Sep | Braga | Home | L 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| 29 Aug | Santa Clara | Home | D 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
The standout result is the 4-1 win away at Famalicão. Before that came a 1-0 win at home to Rio Ave, a rare tight game for a side that usually plays in the open. Across their last five, Alverca have won three, drawn one and lost one, with 10 goals scored and 5 conceded. They have scored in every one of those five games.
The oddity is where the wins came from. Both away games ended in wins. At home they have won one, drawn one and lost one, and the 1-2 home defeat to Braga showed that their attack can leave space behind it. They have kept only one clean sheet in five.
The State of Arouca
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Arouca’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Estrela | Home | W 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 19 Sep | Sporting CP | Away | D 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| 13 Sep | Santa Clara | Home | L 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| 7 Sep | Estoril | Away | D 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 29 Aug | Marítimo | Home | W 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
Vasco Seabra’s side are harder to break down. They have kept two clean sheets in their last five, including the 1-0 win at home to Estrela. The best result was a 2-2 draw away at Sporting CP, which showed they can stay in a game against a stronger opponent. Their record over five reads two wins, two draws and one defeat, with 6 scored and 5 conceded.
On the road they have not lost in their two most recent trips, but they have not won either. A 0-0 draw at Estoril sits beside the Sporting draw. Arouca are built to take points away from home, not to chase games.
Head-to-Head
The record is level at one win each. Alverca won 2-1 at home on 24 April 2026. Arouca won 1-0 on their own ground on 14 December 2025. Neither meeting was decided by more than one goal.
👀 What to Watch
Alverca’s attack against Arouca’s compact block decides this game. Alverca have scored in every match of the run, and they did their best work on the counter at Famalicão. At home they must make the play against a side that is happy to sit. If Arouca score first, they can protect a lead, as they did against Estrela. That would force Alverca to commit numbers forward and leave the gaps Braga used.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Alverca a 41% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 31% for Arouca. Expected goals: 1.4–1.1. Alverca’s three-game winning run and their 2-1 home win over Arouca in April tilt the read their way. Arouca’s two away draws keep it close. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring Alverca we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Alverca 1-0 Arouca
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 17:00 UTC / 18:00 WEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 18:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 1:00 PM EDT (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
- Competition: Primeira Liga, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Alverca vs Arouca?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 17:00 UTC / 18:00 WEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 18:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 1:00 PM EDT (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Alverca vs Arouca being played?
- Venue: Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
- Who won the last meeting between Alverca and Arouca?
- Alverca won the most recent meeting 2-1 at home on 24 April 2026. Arouca won the meeting before that 1-0 on their own ground on 14 December 2025.
- What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Arouca?
- Our prediction is Alverca 1-0 Arouca. Alverca come in on three straight league wins, but Arouca's tight defence points to a low-scoring game.
- Where can I watch Alverca vs Arouca in the US?
- Where to watch: beIN Sports (US)