vs
Club crests © respective clubs. Used for editorial identification only.
Match Prediction
Sheffield United win
Draw
Derby win
Sheffield United or draw
Derby or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 21 Oct 2026, 05:42 UTC · Track record
Struggling Derby Visit Bramall Lane
Derby County arrive at Bramall Lane 23rd in the Championship on 6 points from 11 games, without a win in their last five. Sheffield United go into the round 11th on 15 points from 11, sitting 12 places and 9 points above their visitors. Chris Wilder’s side want a platform for a push up the table. John Eustace’s Derby need to stop a slide that is turning into a relegation fight.
The State of Sheffield United
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Sheffield United’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Bristol City | Away | W 1-0 | Championship |
| 14 Oct | Portsmouth | Away | L 2-3 | Championship |
| 10 Oct | Lincoln City | Home | W 3-0 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Stoke | Away | L 1-2 | Championship |
| 13 Sep | Wolves | Home | L 0-1 | Championship |
United have been streaky: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the five games listed, with 7 scored and 6 conceded. A 3-0 win at home to Lincoln City showed how dangerous they are when they take control at Bramall Lane. They then lost 2-3 away at Portsmouth, before a 1-0 win away at Bristol City, one of 2 clean sheets in the run. Wilder’s teams traditionally play on the front foot, with width and runners from deep. Against a side short of confidence, that approach should give United territory and pressure for long spells.
The State of Derby
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Derby’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Stoke | Home | L 0-1 | Championship |
| 14 Oct | QPR | Away | L 1-4 | Championship |
| 10 Oct | Wrexham | Home | D 1-1 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Burnley | Away | D 1-1 | Championship |
| 12 Sep | Birmingham | Home | L 1-2 | Championship |
The numbers are stark: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 4 goals scored, 9 conceded and no clean sheet. The 1-4 defeat away at QPR was the low point, and a 0-1 loss at home to Stoke followed, making it 2 defeats in a row. Draws against Wrexham and Burnley show Derby can stay in games, but they are not keeping opponents out. Eustace’s sides usually lean on shape and organisation. Right now that shape is leaking.
Head-to-Head
United lead the last six meetings with 4 wins to Derby’s 2, and there were no draws. They have won 2 of the 3 played at Bramall Lane. The exception should sting: a 1-3 home defeat to Derby on 1 November 2025. United answered on 2 May 2026, when the match finished Derby County 1-2 Sheffield United at Derby’s ground. Four of the six meetings produced 2 goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The first goal matters more than usual. Derby have conceded in every game listed, and the QPR result showed how fast they unravel once they fall behind. If United score early, Derby must open up, and that suits a home side that put three past Lincoln. United are not watertight either, as the three conceded at Portsmouth showed. Derby’s best route is to stay level deep into the second half and make the home crowd restless, as they did here in November 2025.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Sheffield United a 49% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 24% for Derby. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0.
United’s home edge and Derby’s leaky run drive the lean, while a low-scoring head-to-head record keeps the margin tight. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.8%, but with the win probabilities favouring Sheffield United we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Sheffield United 1-0 Derby
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC / 12:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 7:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 13:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Bramall Lane
- Competition: Championship, Matchday 12
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
FAQ
- What time is Sheffield United vs Derby?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC / 12:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 7:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 13:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Sheffield United vs Derby being played?
- Venue: Bramall Lane
- How can I watch Sheffield United vs Derby?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Sheffield United and Derby?
- Sheffield United won the most recent meeting 2-1 at Derby's ground on 2 May 2026 (Derby County 1-2 Sheffield United).
- What is the predicted score for Sheffield United vs Derby?
- Our prediction is Sheffield United 1-0 Derby. United's home advantage and Derby's run without a clean sheet point to a narrow home win.