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Match Prediction
Hoffenheim win
Draw
Bayer Leverkusen win
Hoffenheim or draw
Bayer Leverkusen or draw
Expected goals: 1.0 – 1.5 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 21:02 UTC · Track record
Leverkusen’s Form Meets Hoffenheim’s Recent Hold
Bayer Leverkusen go into Matchday 7 fourth on 13 points from six games. Hoffenheim sit 14th on 6, so 10 places and 7 points separate the clubs. On paper this is a mismatch, yet Hoffenheim have won the last two meetings between these sides.
The State of Hoffenheim
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Hoffenheim’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Mönchengladbach | Away | W 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| 10 Oct | Hamburg | Home | L 2-3 | Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep | Paderborn | Away | L 1-3 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Stuttgart | Home | W 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Dortmund | Home | L 2-3 | Bundesliga |
Over their last five games, Hoffenheim won 2 and lost 3, scoring 9 and conceding 11. They scored in every one of those games but kept no clean sheet. The 2-3 loss at home to Hamburg summed up the problem: they create chances but leak goals. They responded by winning 2-1 away at Mönchengladbach in their latest match. Under Christian Ilzer, Hoffenheim press high and attack quickly. That explains why they always score. It also explains the space they leave behind, and only one of their last three home games ended in a win.
The State of Bayer Leverkusen
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Bayer Leverkusen’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Freiburg | Home | W 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| 10 Oct | Mainz | Away | W 4-3 | Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep | RB Leipzig | Home | W 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Augsburg | Away | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Union Berlin | Home | W 4-0 | Bundesliga |
Carles Martínez’s side are unbeaten in five, with 4 wins and 1 draw, and they arrive on a run of three straight wins. They scored 14 goals in that spell, and they have scored in every game. The defence is less convincing. The 4-3 win away at Mainz showed that Leverkusen can be opened up even on days they win. Their latest result was a 2-1 win at home to Freiburg. Away from home they won once and drew once in this run, so the edge travels.
Head-to-Head
Leverkusen lead the last 10 meetings with 6 wins to Hoffenheim’s 3, plus 1 draw. At this ground the record is more one-sided: Leverkusen won 4 of the 5 meetings hosted by Hoffenheim. The recent trend runs the other way. Hoffenheim won 2-1 at Leverkusen on 23 August 2025, then 1-0 at home on 17 January 2026 in the Bundesliga. That 1-0 was the only one of the 10 meetings with two goals or fewer, and Hoffenheim scored in all 10.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Hoffenheim’s press against Leverkusen’s build-up. If Ilzer’s side win the ball high, they can test a Leverkusen defence that conceded three at Mainz. If Leverkusen play through that first wave, they will find a Hoffenheim back line that has conceded in all five recent games. The January 1-0 was the exception in this fixture. The longer history points to goals at both ends.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Hoffenheim a 26% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 46% for Bayer Leverkusen. Expected goals: 1.0–1.5. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.1%, but with the win probabilities favouring Leverkusen we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. Leverkusen’s unbeaten run and their record at this ground drive that read, though Hoffenheim’s habit of scoring in this fixture makes a tight finish likely. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Hoffenheim 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:30 UTC / 15:30 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 10:30 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 14:30 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: PreZero Arena
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:30 UTC / 15:30 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 10:30 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 14:30 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
- Venue: PreZero Arena
- Who won the last meeting between Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
- Hoffenheim won 1-0 at home on 17 January 2026. They also won the meeting before that, 2-1 at Leverkusen on 23 August 2025.
- What is the predicted score for Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
- Our prediction is Hoffenheim 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen. Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last five games and have won 4 of the last 5 meetings at Hoffenheim's ground.
- How can I watch Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)