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Match Prediction
Fiorentina win
Draw
Como win
Fiorentina or draw
Como or draw
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.3 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:25 UTC · Track record
Fiorentina’s Franchi Problem Meets Como
Fiorentina go into the round 19th on 4 points from 6 games. Como sit 7th on 11 points from 6. That puts the visitors 12 places and 7 points clear. For Fabio Grosso’s side, this is an early-season rescue job at a ground where they have not won yet this season. Como arrive four days after a Champions League trip to Feyenoord.
The State of Fiorentina
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Fiorentina’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Genoa | Away | L 1-2 | Serie A |
| 20 Sep | Napoli | Home | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 11 Sep | Venezia | Away | W 4-2 | Serie A |
| 5 Sep | Torino | Home | L 1-2 | Serie A |
| 29 Aug | Frosinone | Home | L 0-3 | Serie A |
The numbers are blunt: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost, with 10 goals conceded and no clean sheet. Home form is the deeper worry: 0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost at the Franchi. The low point was a 0-3 loss at home to Frosinone in Serie A. The best evidence of a pulse was a 1-1 draw at home to Napoli. The 4-2 win away at Venezia showed the attack can score. The issue is a defence that leaks, and a team that is without a win in the last 2. Grosso needs a compact block first and chances on the break second.
The State of Como
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Como’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | Feyenoord | Away | L 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| 11 Oct | Roma | Home | D 0-0 | Serie A |
| 20 Sep | Frosinone | Away | L 0-2 | Serie A |
| 14 Sep | Parma | Home | W 2-1 | Serie A |
| 10 Sep | RB Leipzig | Home | W 4-1 | UEFA Champions League |
Cesc Fàbregas has built Como around the ball: patient build-up, full-backs pushed high, and midfielders who keep possession under pressure. That approach produced a 4-1 win at home to RB Leipzig in the Champions League. In Serie A, the 0-0 draw at home to Roma showed they can also shut a game down. The weakness is travel. Away, they have 0 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost, including a 0-2 loss away at Frosinone in Serie A. They are without a win in the last 3, and European fatigue is a real factor.
Head-to-Head
The last four meetings are split 2-2, with no draws. The Franchi has favoured the visitors: Como won both games there, 0-2 on 16 February 2025 and 1-2 on 21 September 2025. Fiorentina won the most recent meeting, 1-2 at Como’s ground on 14 February 2026.
👀 What to Watch
The key duel is Como’s possession against Fiorentina’s press. If Grosso’s side sit deep, Como will circulate the ball and wait for gaps in a back line that has not kept a clean sheet. If Fiorentina press high, they risk being played through, as Leipzig were. Watch Fiorentina’s first 20 minutes: an early goal changes the mood at a nervous Franchi.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Fiorentina a 32% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 40% for Como. Expected goals: 1.2–1.3. Como’s control of the ball and their two wins at the Franchi drive this read, but their poor away form keeps it close. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring Como we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Fiorentina 0-1 Como
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC / 15:00 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 9:00 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 14:00 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Fiorentina vs Como?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC / 15:00 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 9:00 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 14:00 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Fiorentina vs Como being played?
- Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi
- Who won the last meeting between Fiorentina and Como?
- Fiorentina won the last meeting 2-1 at Como's ground on 14 February 2026 (Como 1-2 Fiorentina).
- What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Como?
- Our prediction is Fiorentina 0-1 Como. Como have won both recent meetings at the Franchi, and Fiorentina have not kept a clean sheet in their last five games.
- How can I watch Fiorentina vs Como?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)