Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction: Ligue 1 2026/27 Matchday 6

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Model v2 · Generated 20 Sep 2026, 17:44 UTC · Track record

Monaco Look to Keep Their Unbeaten Run Rolling

Monaco welcome Toulouse to the Stade Louis II riding a remarkable run of form that includes a statement win over Paris Saint-Germain. Toulouse arrive with just one win from their opening fixtures and need to start collecting points on the road. For Monaco, this is a chance to consolidate their position as early pacesetters under Filipe Luis.

The State of Monaco

Filipe Luis has made an immediate impact on the Principality club. A 2-1 victory over PSG stands out as the headline result so far, but the 2-0 shutout of Marseille showed equal authority. The only blemish was a 1-1 draw away at Strasbourg, followed by a gritty 2-1 win over Lens. Denis Zakaria anchors the midfield with his ability to break up play and transition quickly. Aleksandr Golovin provides the creative spark, while Jordan Teze and Thilo Kehrer give the backline experience and composure. Monaco have kept two clean sheets in their five league outings, and they have won both home matches at the Stade Louis II.

The State of Toulouse

Jens Berthel Askou’s side have found consistency elusive. A 3-2 win over Le Havre in their most recent outing offered some relief, but defeats to Lyon (0-2) and Lille (0-1) exposed a lack of cutting edge against established sides. Two draws, against Brest and Lorient, tell the story of a team that competes but struggles to close games out. Guillaume Restes remains a bright spot in goal. Cristian Cásseres Jr. adds energy in midfield, and Rasmus Nicolaisen organises the defence, but Toulouse have yet to keep a clean sheet this season.

Head-to-Head

Monaco hold the edge in recent meetings, winning four of the last eight encounters compared to two for Toulouse. The most recent clash, in April 2026, ended 2-2 in Toulouse. At the Stade Louis II, the picture is more balanced: two wins apiece in the last four meetings at this venue. Notably, Toulouse pulled off a 1-2 victory in Monaco in February 2024, so they know they can win here. Half of the eight meetings produced two goals or fewer, which points to tight, low-scoring affairs.

👀 What to Watch

The matchup between Zakaria and Cásseres Jr. in central midfield could decide the game. Zakaria’s reading of the game and physical presence will test whether Cásseres Jr. can get Toulouse on the front foot or spend the afternoon chasing shadows. On the flanks, Vanderson’s overlapping runs from right-back will target a Toulouse defence that has conceded in every match so far. If Toulouse sit deep and absorb pressure, they have the personnel to hit on the counter through Aron Dönnum, but Monaco’s defensive record suggests that route to goal will be narrow.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Monaco a 59% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 17% for Toulouse. Expected goals: 1.7–0.8. Monaco’s unbeaten start, home advantage, and defensive solidity all point to a comfortable afternoon for the hosts. Toulouse’s inability to keep clean sheets makes it hard to see them holding out. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: Monaco 1-0 Toulouse

Practical Info

Kickoff: 17:00 CEST (Sat 10 Oct) / 11:00 AM EDT (Sat 10 Oct) / 16:00 BST (Sat 10 Oct). Venue: Stade Louis II. Where to watch: DAZN & broadcast partners — check local listings.

FAQ

What time is Monaco vs Toulouse?

Kickoff is at 17:00 CEST (Sat 10 Oct), which is 11:00 AM EDT or 16:00 BST.

Where is Monaco vs Toulouse being played?

The match takes place at the Stade Louis II in Monaco.

What is the predicted score for Monaco vs Toulouse?

Our model predicts Monaco 1-0 Toulouse. Monaco's strong defensive record and unbeaten start make them favourites to edge a tight contest at home.

Who won the last meeting between Monaco and Toulouse?

The most recent meeting was a 2-2 draw in Toulouse on 25 April 2026. Before that, Monaco won 1-0 at home in October 2025.

How can I watch Monaco vs Toulouse?

The match is available on DAZN and broadcast partners. Check local listings for coverage in your region.