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Match Prediction
Cambuur win
Draw
AZ win
Cambuur or draw
AZ or draw
Expected goals: 0.9 – 1.6 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 20:31 UTC · Track record
AZ Arrive in Leeuwarden Chasing the Leaders
AZ go into the round third on 19 points from eight games, while Cambuur sit 12th on 8 points. Nine places and 11 points separate the clubs, and they are heading in different directions this autumn. For AZ, dropped points in Friesland would dent a title challenge. For Cambuur, this is the test of whether a four-game unbeaten run is real.
The State of Cambuur
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Cambuur’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Zwolle | Away | W 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | ADO Den Haag | Away | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 12 Sep | NEC | Home | W 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| 6 Sep | Telstar | Away | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 30 Aug | Twente | Home | L 1-4 | Eredivisie |
Johan Plat’s side have steadied after a rough start. The low point was a 1-4 defeat at home to Twente in the Eredivisie, a result that showed how open they can be when a strong side gets running at them. Since then they are unbeaten in the last 4, capped by a 1-0 win away at Zwolle. They have scored in every one of their last five games, with 8 goals in all, and kept 2 clean sheets.
The road has been kinder than home: 1 win and 2 draws away, against 1 win and 1 loss in Leeuwarden. The Zwolle result suggests a side that can win without dominating. The Kooi Stadion crowd will want the home form to catch up with the away form, and AZ are the kind of opponent that exposes any gap.
The State of AZ
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows AZ’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Feyenoord | Away | L 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| 20 Sep | Telstar | Home | W 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| 11 Sep | Willem II | Home | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 6 Sep | Heerenveen | Away | W 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| 29 Aug | Go Ahead Eagles | Home | W 5-2 | Eredivisie |
Leeroy Echteld’s AZ carry the attack of a contender. They won 5-2 at home to Go Ahead Eagles and have scored 10 goals over their last five matches. The warning sign came last time out: a 0-2 defeat away at Feyenoord in the Eredivisie, the one game in that run where they failed to score. Away from Alkmaar, the five-game record reads 1 win and 1 loss. AZ like the ball, push numbers forward and trust a squad shaped by one of the most productive academies in the Netherlands.
Head-to-Head
AZ hold the upper hand: 3 wins and 1 draw in the last four meetings, with Cambuur still waiting for a win. The most recent was a 2-1 AZ win in Alkmaar on 25 February 2023. Both visits to Cambuur in that sample ended in away wins, 0-1 in August 2022 and 1-3 in October 2021.
👀 What to Watch
The space behind AZ’s advanced full-backs. Cambuur’s win at Zwolle came from a tight, patient shape, and that approach gives them a route here: stay compact, then break into the channels AZ leave open. The risk is the opposite script. If AZ score first, Cambuur must come out, and an open game is how the Twente defeat happened. The first goal matters more than usual in this fixture.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Cambuur a 22% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 51% for AZ. Expected goals: 0.9–1.6. AZ’s attacking output and their unbeaten record against Cambuur drive that lean, though Cambuur’s recent resilience keeps a draw firmly in play. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.7%, but with the win probabilities favouring AZ we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Cambuur 0-1 AZ
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 12:30 UTC / 14:30 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 13:30 BST (Sun 18 Oct) / 8:30 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: Kooi Stadion
- Competition: Eredivisie, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
FAQ
- What time is Cambuur vs AZ?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 12:30 UTC / 14:30 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 13:30 BST (Sun 18 Oct) / 8:30 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Cambuur vs AZ being played?
- Venue: Kooi Stadion
- Who won the last meeting between Cambuur and AZ?
- AZ won the most recent meeting 2-1 in Alkmaar on 25 February 2023. AZ are unbeaten in the last four meetings, with 3 wins and 1 draw.
- What is the predicted score for Cambuur vs AZ?
- Our prediction is Cambuur 0-1 AZ. AZ's stronger attack and their record of winning both recent visits to Cambuur give them the edge, even though 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline.
- Where can I watch Cambuur vs AZ on TV?
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)