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Match Prediction
Valencia win
Draw
Villarreal win
Valencia or draw
Villarreal or draw
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.2 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 21 Oct 2026, 05:57 UTC · Track record
A Mestalla derby with the drop zone close
Valencia go into Matchday 10 sitting 19th on 6 points from 9 games, and the next visitors to Mestalla are their regional neighbours. Villarreal are 12th, seven places and just three points clear of Valencia. For the home side this is a relegation fight. For the visitors it is a test of whether a Champions League squad can handle a derby four days after Anfield.
The State of Valencia
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Valencia’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Athletic Bilbao | Home | D 0-0 | Primera Division |
| 11 Oct | Racing Santander | Away | D 2-2 | Primera Division |
| 20 Sep | Real Sociedad | Home | L 2-3 | Primera Division |
| 15 Sep | Alavés | Away | W 1-0 | Primera Division |
| 11 Sep | Sevilla | Away | L 0-1 | Primera Division |
Carlos Corberán’s side are without a win in their last three, but the bleeding has slowed. A 2-2 draw away at Racing Santander was followed by a 0-0 draw at home to Athletic Bilbao. That goalless game was one of 2 clean sheets in the last five. The defensive shape is holding better than the table suggests.
The trouble is at the other end. Valencia have scored 5 in those five games and drawn a blank in 2 of them. Mestalla has not been a fortress either, with no wins from the 2 home games in this run. That run includes the 2-3 defeat at home to Real Sociedad. Expect a compact block, low risk in possession, and a reliance on transitions and dead balls to find goals.
The State of Villarreal
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Villarreal’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct | Liverpool | Away | L 3-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| 17 Oct | Elche | Home | D 0-0 | Primera Division |
| 13 Oct | Napoli | Home | W 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Oct | Real Madrid | Away | L 0-1 | Primera Division |
| 20 Sep | Levante | Home | W 3-1 | Primera Division |
Inigo Perez’s side have spent the autumn in two different seasons. In the Champions League they won 3-1 at home to Napoli, then lost 3-4 away at Liverpool in a wild game. In La Liga the picture is flatter: a 0-1 defeat away at Real Madrid and a 0-0 draw at home to Elche.
The tally tells the story: 9 scored and 7 conceded in five games. This team plays open football and accepts the risk that comes with it. Away from home in this run they have lost both games. With so little recovery time after Merseyside, rotation is likely, and the depth of the squad will decide how sharp they look.
Head-to-Head
Villarreal have owned this fixture lately. Across the last 10 meetings they have won 5, Valencia 2, with 3 draws. They won the last two: 2-1 at home on 22 February 2026, and Valencia 0-2 Villarreal at Mestalla on 25 October 2025.
Mestalla is kinder to the home side. Of the 5 meetings there, Valencia won 2, Villarreal 1, and 2 were drawn. Valencia’s last win in the fixture was 3-1 at Mestalla on 2 January 2024. These games are rarely open: 7 of the 10 finished with two goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Valencia’s patience against Villarreal’s tired legs. Corberán’s side do not need to chase this game early. If they keep it tight for an hour, the visitors’ Champions League week may tell late. But Villarreal have scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings, so a Valencia clean sheet is a big ask. The home side’s limited output means one mistake at the back could settle it.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Valencia a 37% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 35% for Villarreal. Expected goals: 1.3–1.2. Valencia’s improved defensive record and home advantage at Mestalla offset Villarreal’s head-to-head edge, and the visitors’ fixture load pulls the game towards a stalemate. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Valencia 1-1 Villarreal
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC / 18:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 12:30 PM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 17:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Mestalla
- Competition: La Liga, Matchday 10
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
FAQ
- What time is Valencia vs Villarreal?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC / 18:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 12:30 PM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 17:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Valencia vs Villarreal being played?
- Venue: Mestalla
- How can I watch Valencia vs Villarreal on TV?
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Valencia and Villarreal?
- Villarreal won 2-1 at home on 22 February 2026. They also won the meeting before that 2-0 at Mestalla on 25 October 2025.
- What is the predicted score for Valencia vs Villarreal?
- Our prediction is Valencia 1-1 Villarreal. Valencia's tighter defence at home meets a Villarreal side coming off a demanding Champions League week.