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Match Prediction
Liverpool win
Draw
Brighton win
Liverpool or draw
Brighton or draw
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.9 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 21 Oct 2026, 05:52 UTC · Track record
Third Visits Fifth With Anfield Record Intact
Brighton go into the round third in the Premier League on 16 points from seven games, with Liverpool fifth on 12. Four points and two places separate them, and the side above has been the more convincing one. Anfield is the test: Liverpool won all three meetings hosted there in the head-to-head sample.
The State of Liverpool
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Liverpool’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct | Villarreal | Home | W 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| 17 Oct | Brentford | Away | W 2-1 | Premier League |
| 14 Oct | LASK | Away | W 6-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| 11 Oct | Manchester City | Home | L 0-3 | Premier League |
| 20 Sep | Bournemouth | Away | W 1-0 | Premier League |
Andoni Iraola’s side have won three in a row in all competitions, most recently a 4-3 win at home to Villarreal in the Champions League. The result that still shapes the picture is domestic: a 0-3 loss at home to Manchester City in the Premier League. Across the five games Liverpool scored 13 and conceded 10, with just one clean sheet. They score freely, but they also give chances away.
The width comes from the full-backs. Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez push high and turn the side into an attacking back line, which suits Iraola’s aggressive, front-foot approach. That leaves Virgil van Dijk and Ronald Araújo defending big spaces, and Wataru Endō has to screen in front of them. Away form is perfect at 3 from 3; at Anfield, Liverpool won one of two.
The State of Brighton
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Brighton’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Crystal Palace | Home | W 5-0 | Premier League |
| 10 Oct | Sunderland | Away | W 2-0 | Premier League |
| 19 Sep | Arsenal | Home | W 3-0 | Premier League |
| 13 Sep | Coventry City | Away | W 5-0 | Premier League |
| 5 Sep | Leeds | Home | D 1-1 | Premier League |
Fabian Hürzeler’s team arrive on four straight wins and unbeaten in five, with 16 goals scored and one conceded. They have kept four clean sheets. The statement result was a 3-0 win at home to Arsenal in the Premier League, and they followed it with a 5-0 win at home to Crystal Palace.
The structure starts at the back. Lewis Dunk and Luka Vušković are comfortable stepping into midfield with the ball, and Bart Verbruggen joins the build-up. Pascal Groß and Mats Wieffer control tempo, while Matt O’Riley arrives late in the box. Ferdi Kadıoğlu and Maxim De Cuyper give the full-back areas both cover and an outlet.
Head-to-Head
The last seven meetings split evenly: three wins each and one draw. Goals are normal in this fixture: only one of those seven finished with two goals or fewer. The most recent meeting, on 21 March 2026, went 2-1 to Brighton at their own ground. At Anfield, Liverpool won 2-0 on 13 December 2025.
👀 What to Watch
The flanks decide this. Frimpong and Kerkez will try to pin Kadıoğlu and De Cuyper back. If Brighton beat that first press through Groß, though, the space behind Liverpool’s full-backs is the same gap that hurt them against City. Brighton’s composure on the ball against Liverpool’s press is the key duel.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Liverpool a 51% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 22% for Brighton. Expected goals: 1.6–0.9. Liverpool’s perfect home record in this fixture and their goal threat drive that lean. Brighton’s defensive form argues for a tighter game than Liverpool’s recent scorelines suggest. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.7%, but with the win probabilities favouring Liverpool we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Liverpool 1-0 Brighton
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 14:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 15:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Anfield
- Competition: Premier League, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
FAQ
- What time is Liverpool vs Brighton?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 14:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 15:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Liverpool vs Brighton being played?
- Venue: Anfield
- How can I watch Liverpool vs Brighton on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Liverpool and Brighton?
- Brighton won 2-1 at their own ground on 21 March 2026. Liverpool's last home meeting with Brighton, on 13 December 2025, ended in a 2-0 Liverpool win.
- What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Brighton?
- Our prediction is Liverpool 1-0 Brighton. Liverpool won all three Anfield meetings in the recent head-to-head, but Brighton's four clean sheets in five games point to a tight match.