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Match Prediction
Sparta Rotterdam win
Draw
Willem II win
Sparta Rotterdam or draw
Willem II or draw
Expected goals: 1.7 – 0.8 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:53 UTC · Track record
Two Winless Strugglers Meet at Het Kasteel
Sparta Rotterdam go into the round 14th on 6 points from 8 games. Willem II sit 18th on 2 points from 8 games and are still looking for their first league win of the season. Sparta are four places and four points clear of Willem II. Neither club has won in its last five matches, so one of these two runs has to bend on Saturday night in Rotterdam.
The State of Sparta Rotterdam
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Sparta Rotterdam’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Go Ahead Eagles | Away | D 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | Heerenveen | Home | L 0-4 | Eredivisie |
| 13 Sep | PSV | Away | L 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| 4 Sep | Zwolle | Home | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 29 Aug | Excelsior | Away | L 1-2 | Eredivisie |
Rogier Meijer’s side have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last five, with 7 goals scored and 15 conceded. They have not kept a clean sheet in that run. The 0-4 home defeat to Heerenveen in the Eredivisie was the low point, and it shows how little protection Het Kasteel has offered lately. The 3-3 draw away at Go Ahead Eagles in the Eredivisie showed the other side of this team: when Sparta commit runners forward, they can hurt opponents. The problem is behind the ball. Too many goals come when the midfield line is broken and the back four is left exposed in transition. Meijer’s main task is to make Sparta compact without losing the forward runs that produced those three goals in Deventer.
The State of Willem II
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Willem II’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Utrecht | Away | L 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | Fortuna Sittard | Home | L 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| 15 Sep | Ajax | Away | L 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| 11 Sep | AZ | Away | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 5 Sep | Excelsior | Home | L 0-3 | Eredivisie |
John Stegeman’s Willem II have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last five, with 3 goals scored and 13 conceded. They come into this game on 3 defeats in a row, the latest a 1-3 loss away at Utrecht in the Eredivisie. The 1-1 draw away at AZ in the Eredivisie is the result that points to a usable plan: stay deep, stay narrow and make the stronger side work for every chance. Two games without scoring in that five-match run show the deeper issue. Willem II struggle to turn defence into attack, and their forwards often receive the ball with little support around them.
Head-to-Head
This fixture has favoured Sparta. In the last six meetings Sparta Rotterdam won 5, Willem II won 1, and there were no draws. The latest meeting, on 2 March 2025, ended Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 Willem II at Sparta’s ground, the widest margin in the sample. Willem II will take some comfort from their one win in that run: a 2-0 victory at Sparta’s ground on 28 February 2021. Willem II have not scored three or more in any of those six meetings.
👀 What to Watch
The key question is whether Willem II repeat the low block that earned a point at AZ. If they do, Sparta must break down a packed defence while their own back line stays alert to the counterattack. That has not been a strength for the home side. The home crowd is another factor. After the heavy loss to Heerenveen, patience at Het Kasteel may be short. An early Sparta goal would force Willem II to open up, and that suits the home side. A goalless first half would add pressure on Sparta and give Willem II belief.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 57% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 18% for Willem II. Expected goals: 1.7–0.8. Sparta’s head-to-head dominance and Willem II’s lack of goals drive that read, even though the home defence has been unreliable. A narrow home win is the most likely outcome, with Willem II’s limited attack the reason Sparta can finally keep a clean sheet. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 Willem II
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 21:00 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 20:00 BST (Sat 17 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Sat 17 Oct)
- Venue: Het Kasteel
- Competition: Eredivisie, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
FAQ
- What time is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 21:00 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 20:00 BST (Sat 17 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Sat 17 Oct)
- Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II being played?
- Venue: Het Kasteel
- What channel is Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II on?
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
- Who won the last meeting between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II?
- Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 at their own ground on 2 March 2025. Sparta have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
- What is the predicted score for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
- Our prediction is Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 Willem II. Willem II have scored only 3 goals in their last five matches, so one Sparta goal may be enough.