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Match Prediction
Real Madrid win
Draw
Sevilla win
Real Madrid or draw
Sevilla or draw
Expected goals: 2.1 – 0.4 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:23 UTC · Track record
Fourth Hosts Fifth at the Bernabéu
Real Madrid go into the round fourth on 18 points from eight games, one place and four points above Sevilla in fifth. That makes this a direct meeting of neighbours in the table. Sevilla bring a grim record to Madrid: nine defeats and one draw in the last 10 meetings.
The State of Real Madrid
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Real Madrid’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | Roma | Away | W 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Oct | Villarreal | Home | W 1-0 | Primera Division |
| 20 Sep | Atletico Madrid | Away | L 1-2 | Primera Division |
| 15 Sep | Elche | Away | W 3-2 | Primera Division |
| 12 Sep | Rayo Vallecano | Home | W 4-1 | Primera Division |
José Mourinho’s side have four wins and one defeat from their last five, with 13 goals scored and 8 conceded. The 4-3 win away at Roma in the Champions League sums up the mood: plenty of goals at one end, real looseness at the other. The 1-0 win at home to Villarreal in La Liga looked more like a Mourinho performance. It is their only clean sheet in the five games. Their one defeat came 1-2 away at Atletico Madrid.
At home they have won both games in this run. Madrid scored in all five matches. The concern is control: they have conceded in four of their last five. They also arrive straight from a draining European night in Rome.
The State of Sevilla
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Sevilla’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct | Levante | Away | D 3-3 | Primera Division |
| 19 Sep | Barcelona | Home | L 1-3 | Primera Division |
| 16 Sep | Deportivo | Away | W 1-0 | Primera Division |
| 11 Sep | Valencia | Home | W 1-0 | Primera Division |
| 6 Sep | Espanyol | Away | D 1-1 | Primera Division |
Luís García’s Sevilla have two wins, two draws and one defeat, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their most recent outing was a 3-3 draw away at Levante, and before that they lost 1-3 at home to Barcelona. That leaves them without a win in their last two.
The earlier part of the run was tighter. Sevilla won 1-0 away at Deportivo and 1-0 at home to Valencia, and those two clean sheets show what they can do when they keep games small. Away from home they are unbeaten in this run, with one win and two draws.
Head-to-Head
This fixture has been one-way traffic. Madrid won all five of the meetings at their ground in this sample, and they scored in all 10. The last meeting was on 17 May 2026, when Sevilla lost 0-1 at home to Real Madrid. Before that, Real Madrid beat Sevilla 2-0 in Madrid on 20 December 2025. Sevilla have not scored in the last three meetings. Their last result against Madrid was a 1-1 draw at their own ground on 21 October 2023.
👀 What to Watch
The key question is whether Sevilla can attack a Madrid defence that keeps leaking goals. Madrid conceded three at Roma and two at Elche, and Sevilla just scored three at Levante. But Sevilla also conceded three in that game. Their best results in this run came from low-scoring 1-0 games. Expect them to sit deep, frustrate Madrid and hunt a set piece or a transition. Mourinho’s rotation after Rome also matters: fresh legs in midfield would help Madrid press Sevilla back.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Real Madrid a 78% chance of winning, 17% for a draw and 5% for Sevilla. Expected goals: 2.1–0.4. A perfect home record against Sevilla in this sample and three straight clean sheets in the fixture drive that read. Sevilla’s patchy recent defending adds to it. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 21:00 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 20:00 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: Santiago Bernabéu
- Competition: La Liga, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
FAQ
- What time is Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 21:00 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 20:00 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Real Madrid vs Sevilla being played?
- Venue: Santiago Bernabéu
- Where can I watch Real Madrid vs Sevilla on TV?
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Real Madrid and Sevilla?
- Real Madrid won the last meeting 1-0 away at Sevilla on 17 May 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
- Our prediction is Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla. Madrid won all five meetings in Madrid in this sample, and Sevilla have failed to score in the last three meetings.