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Match Prediction
Zwolle win
Draw
Go Ahead Eagles win
Zwolle or draw
Go Ahead Eagles or draw
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.3 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:54 UTC · Track record
A Derby Zwolle Cannot Afford to Lose
PEC Zwolle go into Matchday 9 16th on 4 points from 8 games, and the next visitors are their IJssel neighbours. Go Ahead Eagles sit 8th on 11 points, so the gap is 8 places and 7 points. For Henry van der Vegt’s side, this derby is now a matter of survival, not pride.
The State of Zwolle
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Zwolle’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Cambuur | Home | L 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| 18 Sep | Groningen | Away | L 0-3 | Eredivisie |
| 13 Sep | Feyenoord | Home | L 0-7 | Eredivisie |
| 4 Sep | Sparta Rotterdam | Away | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 29 Aug | NEC | Home | L 1-3 | Eredivisie |
The numbers are stark. Zwolle have no wins in their last 5, with 4 defeats, and they have lost 3 in a row. They have scored 3 goals and conceded 16 in that run, have not kept a clean sheet and have failed to score in 3 of the 5 games. The 0-7 defeat at home to Feyenoord was the low point. The 0-1 loss at home to Cambuur hurt in a different way, because it came against a side Zwolle will judge themselves against at the bottom.
Home form is the real worry: 3 games at MAC³PARK, 3 defeats. The defence concedes too easily, and the attack creates too little to make up for it. Van der Vegt needs a compact block and a goal from somewhere, probably from set pieces or quick breaks rather than long spells of possession.
The State of Go Ahead Eagles
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Go Ahead Eagles’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Sparta Rotterdam | Home | D 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| 20 Sep | NEC | Away | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 12 Sep | Groningen | Home | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 8 Sep | Utrecht | Away | D 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| 29 Aug | AZ | Away | L 2-5 | Eredivisie |
Joseph Oosting’s Deventer side cannot stop drawing. They have drawn 4 in a row and are unbeaten in those 4, but they have not won in their last 5 either. Their games are open. They have scored in every one of the 5, with 10 goals for and 13 against, and they kept no clean sheets. The 3-3 at home to Sparta Rotterdam and the 3-3 away at Utrecht show a team that attacks well but leaks at the back. Their only defeat in the run came 2-5 away at AZ.
Head-to-Head
This fixture has gone one way. In the last 8 meetings, Zwolle have 0 wins, Go Ahead have 4 and 4 ended level. The most recent meeting, on 5 April 2026, ended Go Ahead Eagles 5-0 PEC Zwolle in Deventer. At Zwolle’s ground, Go Ahead won 2 of the 4 meetings and the other 2 were draws. Six of the 8 meetings had 2 goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The key question is whether Zwolle can stay organised against a Go Ahead attack that always scores. If Zwolle hold out early, the visitors’ own defensive gaps give the home side a real chance. Go Ahead’s habit of letting leads slip, seen in their run of draws, is the opening Zwolle need.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Zwolle a 34% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 38% for Go Ahead Eagles. Expected goals: 1.2–1.3. Zwolle’s home losses and the one-sided head-to-head explain the lean towards the visitors, though Go Ahead’s own lack of wins keeps this close. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.5%, but with the win probabilities favouring Go Ahead Eagles we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Zwolle 0-1 Go Ahead Eagles
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 10:15 UTC / 12:15 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 11:15 BST (Sun 18 Oct) / 6:15 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion
- Competition: Eredivisie, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
FAQ
- What time is Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 10:15 UTC / 12:15 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 11:15 BST (Sun 18 Oct) / 6:15 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles being played?
- Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion
- How can I watch Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles on TV?
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
- Who won the last meeting between Zwolle and Go Ahead Eagles?
- Go Ahead Eagles won the last meeting 5-0 in Deventer on 5 April 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles?
- Our prediction is Zwolle 0-1 Go Ahead Eagles. Zwolle have lost all 3 recent home games and have never beaten Go Ahead in the last 8 meetings.