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Match Prediction
Arsenal win
Draw
Everton win
Arsenal or draw
Everton or draw
Expected goals: 2.1 – 0.4 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 23 Oct 2026, 05:54 UTC · Track record
Arsenal’s Title Push Meets Everton’s Draw Habit
Arsenal go into the round second in the Premier League on 18 points from seven games. A home game against Everton is the kind of fixture a title challenger is expected to win. The visitors are eighth on 10 points, six places and eight points behind. They are hard to beat but have struggled to turn draws into wins. Mikel Arteta’s side also have to recover quickly from a draining 2-2 draw away at Bayern Munich in the Champions League.
The State of Arsenal
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Arsenal’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct | Bayern Munich | Away | D 2-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| 18 Oct | Nottingham Forest | Away | W 1-0 | Premier League |
| 13 Oct | Lille | Home | W 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Oct | Leeds | Home | W 2-1 | Premier League |
| 19 Sep | Brighton | Away | L 0-3 | Premier League |
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last four, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat across their last five. The draw in Munich showed they can trade blows with a European heavyweight. The more useful guide for Saturday is the 1-0 win away at Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, a tight league game they controlled and saw out. They have won both home games in this run and kept 2 clean sheets.
The identity is familiar by now. Arsenal hold territory, press hard the moment they lose the ball and pin opponents back for long spells. Set pieces have been a reliable weapon for them in recent seasons, and that matters against a side that will defend deep.
The State of Everton
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Everton’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Chelsea | Home | L 0-2 | Premier League |
| 11 Oct | Hull City | Away | D 2-2 | Premier League |
| 19 Sep | Ipswich | Home | W 1-0 | Premier League |
| 12 Sep | Tottenham | Away | D 0-0 | Premier League |
| 6 Sep | Manchester United | Home | D 2-2 | Premier League |
David Moyes’s Everton have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last five, and they are without a win in their last two. The low point was a 0-2 defeat at home to Chelsea in the Premier League. Their away form is sturdier: two league trips, two draws, including a 0-0 away at Tottenham. They have kept 2 clean sheets but failed to score in 2, so goals remain the problem. Expect a compact block, direct balls into the channels and real intent at dead-ball situations.
Head-to-Head
Arsenal have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, Everton 2, with 2 draws. At Arsenal’s ground the record is one-sided: Arsenal won 4 of the 5 games there, and Everton’s only result was a 0-0 on 14 December 2024. The most recent meeting, on 14 March 2026, ended Arsenal 2-0 Everton at the Emirates. Everton scored in only 5 of the 10 games.
👀 What to Watch
The key question is how fresh Arsenal look after Munich. Everton are built to frustrate a tired team: they sit in two banks, slow the game down and wait for a set piece or a second ball. If Arsenal score early, Everton have to come out, and that suits the home side. If the score stays level past the hour, the restarts become Everton’s best route to a point.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Arsenal a 78% chance of winning, 17% for a draw and 5% for Everton. Expected goals: 2.1–0.4. Arsenal’s home record in this fixture and Everton’s lack of goals drive that read, although the Bayern trip may make it tighter than the numbers suggest. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Everton
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Emirates Stadium
- Competition: Premier League, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
FAQ
- What time is Arsenal vs Everton?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Arsenal vs Everton being played?
- Venue: Emirates Stadium
- How can I watch Arsenal vs Everton?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Arsenal and Everton?
- Arsenal won the last meeting 2-0 at the Emirates on 14 March 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Everton?
- Our prediction is Arsenal 2-0 Everton. Arsenal won 4 of the last 5 meetings at their ground, and Everton have failed to score in 2 of their last five games.