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Match Prediction
NEC win
Draw
Groningen win
NEC or draw
Groningen or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 20:45 UTC · Track record
NEC Need to Turn Draws Into Wins
NEC go into this round 12th on 10 points from 9 games, and they have not won in five. Groningen arrive 7th on 14 points, five places and four points clear of Dick Schreuder’s side. NEC need to start turning draws into wins. Groningen need a quick answer to a heavy home defeat to Ajax.
The State of NEC
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows NEC’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Fortuna Sittard | Home | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 10 Oct | Ajax | Away | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 20 Sep | Go Ahead Eagles | Home | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 12 Sep | Cambuur | Away | L 0-3 | Eredivisie |
| 8 Sep | Excelsior | Home | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
NEC have drawn three in a row and four of their last five, with one defeat and no wins. The best of those results was the 1-1 away at Ajax in the Eredivisie. It showed this side can make life awkward for a top-four club on the road. The problem is at the Goffertstadion. All three recent home games ended level, the latest a 2-2 at home to Fortuna Sittard. NEC keep finding the net, with 6 goals in five and only one blank, but they have kept no clean sheets and conceded 9. Schreuder’s side push numbers forward, and right now that openness costs them as much as it earns.
The State of Groningen
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Groningen’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Ajax | Home | L 2-5 | Eredivisie |
| 11 Oct | Excelsior | Away | W 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| 18 Sep | Zwolle | Home | W 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| 12 Sep | Go Ahead Eagles | Away | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 6 Sep | Twente | Home | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
Dick Lukkien’s team have scored 13 in their last five and found the net in every game. The 5-1 away at Excelsior in the Eredivisie showed how dangerous they are once they get running. Then came a 2-5 at home to Ajax, a result that exposed the space behind their back line. Away from home they are unbeaten in their last two, with a win and a draw. Their record across the five reads 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost.
Head-to-Head
NEC lead the last eight meetings with 4 wins to Groningen’s 3, plus 1 draw. The Goffertstadion has been hard for the visitors. NEC won three and drew one of the four meetings there, including a 6-0 on 3 November 2024. The most recent meeting went Groningen’s way: FC Groningen 2-1 NEC in the Eredivisie on 10 May 2026, at Groningen’s ground. NEC scored in all 8 meetings. Groningen scored in only 4.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is NEC’s defence against Groningen’s attack. NEC have conceded in every one of their last five games, and Groningen have scored in every one of theirs. Watch the other end too. Groningen gave up five at home to Ajax, and NEC rarely fail to score in this fixture. If Groningen leave the same gaps, NEC have the forward runners to punish them.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives NEC a 49% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 24% for Groningen. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0. NEC’s home record against Groningen and the space Groningen left against Ajax drive this read. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.9%, and NEC’s run of draws makes it a live outcome. Because the win probabilities favour NEC, we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: NEC 1-0 Groningen
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 14:30 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 13:30 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Goffertstadion
- Competition: Eredivisie, Matchday 10
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
FAQ
- What time is NEC vs Groningen?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 14:30 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 13:30 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is NEC vs Groningen being played?
- Venue: Goffertstadion
- How can I watch NEC vs Groningen?
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
- Who won the last meeting between NEC and Groningen?
- Groningen won the last meeting 2-1 at home in the Eredivisie on 10 May 2026.
- What is the predicted score for NEC vs Groningen?
- We predict NEC 1-0 Groningen. Groningen have not won in their last four visits to NEC in our head-to-head data, and NEC are the model's favourites.