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Match Prediction
Groningen win
Draw
Ajax win
Groningen or draw
Ajax or draw
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.4 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:59 UTC · Track record
Sixth Hosts Fifth at the Euroborg
Ajax go into the round fifth on 15 points from 8 games, and Groningen sit directly behind them in sixth, one point back. Dick Lukkien’s side arrive on two straight league wins, while Michel’s Ajax have drawn their last two. The last time Ajax visited the Euroborg, they left beaten 3-1.
The State of Groningen
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Groningen’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Excelsior | Away | W 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| 18 Sep | Zwolle | Home | W 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| 12 Sep | Go Ahead Eagles | Away | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 6 Sep | Twente | Home | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 28 Aug | Fortuna Sittard | Home | L 2-3 | Eredivisie |
Groningen won 5-1 away at Excelsior in the Eredivisie, their sharpest result of the run. Before that, they won 3-0 at home to Zwolle. They are unbeaten in their last 4, with 13 goals scored and 7 conceded across five games. They have scored in every one of those games, and their attack is clearly working. The concern is at the back. Groningen have only 1 clean sheet in that run, and their home record (1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost) is less convincing than their away form. Lukkien’s team want to play forward quickly and commit runners into the box. That approach suits a home crowd, but it leaves space behind.
The State of Ajax
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Ajax’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | NEC | Home | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | Excelsior | Home | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 15 Sep | Willem II | Home | W 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| 12 Sep | Fortuna Sittard | Away | W 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| 5 Sep | PSV | Home | L 1-3 | Eredivisie |
Ajax drew 1-1 at home to NEC in the Eredivisie, their second draw in a row after a 2-2 at home to Excelsior. Those results dented the momentum from a 5-1 win away at Fortuna Sittard. Ajax have scored 14 goals in five games but have kept 0 clean sheets. The ball progression is there; the control without it is not. Michel’s side have played four of their last five at home, so a trip north is a different test.
Head-to-Head
Ajax have won 7 of the last 10 meetings, against 2 for Groningen, with 1 draw. At Groningen’s ground the split is level: 2 wins each and 1 draw. The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026 in the Eredivisie, ended Groningen 3-1 Ajax. Goals are normal in this fixture: only 2 of the last 10 meetings had two goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The core question is simple. Groningen have not failed to score in five games, and Ajax have not kept a clean sheet in five. If Groningen win the ball high and attack the space Ajax leave in transition, the March result is a fair template. But Ajax score heavily in this fixture too, with 3 or more goals in 6 of the last 10 meetings. Groningen conceded 3 at home to Fortuna Sittard, and Ajax have the forward quality to punish the same gaps.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Groningen a 31% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 41% for Ajax. Expected goals: 1.1–1.4. Ajax’s long head-to-head edge and attacking output tilt the numbers their way, though Groningen’s form at the Euroborg makes this closer than the names suggest. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring Ajax we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Groningen 0-1 Ajax
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 14:45 UTC / 16:45 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 15:45 BST (Sun 18 Oct) / 10:45 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: Euroborg
- Competition: Eredivisie, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
FAQ
- What is the predicted score for Groningen vs Ajax?
- Our prediction is Groningen 0-1 Ajax. Ajax's strong head-to-head record gives them the edge, although 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline.
- What time is Groningen vs Ajax?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 14:45 UTC / 16:45 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 15:45 BST (Sun 18 Oct) / 10:45 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Groningen vs Ajax being played?
- Venue: Euroborg
- Who won the last meeting between Groningen and Ajax?
- Groningen won the last meeting 3-1 at their own ground on 7 March 2026 in the Eredivisie.
- Where can I watch Groningen vs Ajax on TV?
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)