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Match Prediction
Burnley win
Draw
Wolves win
Burnley or draw
Wolves or draw
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.2 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 14 Oct 2026, 06:28 UTC · Track record
Struggling Burnley Host Promotion-Chasing Wolves
Burnley open Matchday 11 of the Championship on Friday night at Turf Moor. They go into the round 22nd, with 7 points from 9 games. Wolves arrive 5th on 14 points and have played a game fewer, so 17 places and 7 points separate two clubs who met in the top flight as recently as last season. For Burnley, this is the night to show that the win at Watford was the start of a recovery.
The State of Burnley
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Burnley’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Watford | Away | W 4-0 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Derby | Home | D 1-1 | Championship |
| 12 Sep | Swansea | Away | L 1-3 | Championship |
| 8 Sep | Wrexham | Away | D 1-1 | Championship |
| 5 Sep | Bristol City | Home | L 1-2 | Championship |
The 4-0 win away at Watford was Burnley’s only victory in their last five (1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost). It also ended a rough September. The home record is the bigger worry: they have no wins from their two Turf Moor games in that run, and that includes a 1-2 defeat at home to Bristol City. Goals are not the problem. Burnley scored in all five games, with 8 scored and 7 conceded. What Nicky Hayen’s side lacks is control at the back, with only 1 clean sheet in that spell. A side that keeps scoring but keeps leaking goals sits 22nd for a reason.
The State of Wolves
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Wolves’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Middlesbrough | Away | L 0-1 | Championship |
| 20 Sep | West Brom | Home | W 1-0 | Championship |
| 13 Sep | Sheffield United | Away | W 1-0 | Championship |
| 6 Sep | Birmingham | Away | D 2-2 | Championship |
| 1 Sep | West Ham | Away | L 2-4 | Championship |
César Peixoto’s Wolves win tight games. Both wins in this run finished 1-0: at home to West Brom and away at Sheffield United. They kept 2 clean sheets in five. But the margins are thin. Their latest game was a 0-1 defeat away at Middlesbrough, and they failed to score in 1 of the five. The 2-4 defeat away at West Ham showed what happens when a game opens up against them. Away from home, they have 1 win from 4 games in this sample.
Head-to-Head
Burnley lead the last nine meetings with 4 wins to Wolves’ 1, and 4 draws. At Turf Moor the record is stronger still: Wolves have won none of the five meetings there (Burnley 2 wins, 3 draws). The most recent meeting was Burnley 1-1 Wolves at Turf Moor on 24 May 2026. Before that, Wolves 2-3 Burnley at Molineux on 26 October 2025 gave Burnley the win. Wolves did not score 3 or more in any of the nine meetings, and 6 of 9 finished with 2 goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The first goal sets the shape of this match. Burnley have scored in each of their last five games, while Wolves win by single goals. If Burnley score first, Wolves must open up, and the defeat at West Ham shows the risk in that. If Wolves score first, Burnley must break down a side that kept 2 clean sheets in its last five. They would do it in front of a crowd that has not seen a home win in this run.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Burnley a 40% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 32% for Wolves. Expected goals: 1.3–1.2.
Home advantage and Wolves’ record at Turf Moor (no win in five visits) tip the read towards Burnley, despite the gap in the table. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring Burnley we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Burnley 1-0 Wolves
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Friday 16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 20:00 BST (Fri 16 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Fri 16 Oct) / 21:00 CEST (Fri 16 Oct)
- Venue: Turf Moor
- Competition: Championship, Matchday 11
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
FAQ
- What time is Burnley vs Wolves?
- Kickoff: Friday 16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 20:00 BST (Fri 16 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Fri 16 Oct) / 21:00 CEST (Fri 16 Oct)
- Where is Burnley vs Wolves being played?
- Venue: Turf Moor
- What channel is Burnley vs Wolves on?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Burnley and Wolves?
- Nobody. The last meeting was a 1-1 draw at Turf Moor on 24 May 2026. Burnley won the meeting before that 3-2 at Molineux on 26 October 2025.
- What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Wolves?
- Our prediction is Burnley 1-0 Wolves. Burnley have home advantage, and Wolves have not won in their last five visits to Turf Moor.