vs
Club crests © respective clubs. Used for editorial identification only.
Match Prediction
Bayer Leverkusen win
Draw
Freiburg win
Bayer Leverkusen or draw
Freiburg or draw
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.9 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:58 UTC · Track record
Leaders Walk Into Leverkusen’s Fortress
Freiburg go into Matchday 6 top of the Bundesliga on 13 points from five games. Bayer Leverkusen sit fourth on 10 points, three places and three points behind them. That makes Sunday at the BayArena a direct meeting between two of the division’s most productive attacks, and a real test of whether Julian Schuster’s side can sustain this start.
The State of Bayer Leverkusen
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Bayer Leverkusen’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Mainz | Away | W 4-3 | Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep | RB Leipzig | Home | W 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Augsburg | Away | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Union Berlin | Home | W 4-0 | Bundesliga |
| 29 Aug | Elversberg | Away | L 2-3 | Bundesliga |
Carles Martínez’s side arrive on two straight wins and are unbeaten in their last four. The 4-3 win away at Mainz in the Bundesliga sums up their profile: 14 goals scored across the five games, but 8 conceded and only 2 clean sheets. The one defeat came away at Elversberg, a 2-3 loss. Home form is cleaner, with two wins from two, including a 2-0 win at home to RB Leipzig. Leverkusen want the ball, push their full-backs high and load the box. That produces chances in volume, but it leaves space behind when a move breaks down.
The State of Freiburg
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Freiburg’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Schalke | Home | W 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Frankfurt | Away | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Mönchengladbach | Home | W 5-0 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Paderborn | Away | W 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| 30 Aug | Werder Bremen | Home | W 4-1 | Bundesliga |
Freiburg are unbeaten in their last five, with 4 wins and 1 draw, 14 goals scored and only 4 conceded. The 5-0 win at home to Mönchengladbach showed their ruthlessness once ahead. The 2-2 draw away at Frankfurt showed they can take something from a hard away trip. Schuster’s team defend compactly, attack quickly into the channels and are a constant threat from set pieces. Away from home in this run, they have won one and drawn one.
Head-to-Head
Leverkusen hold the edge with 5 wins to Freiburg’s 2 in the last ten meetings, plus 3 draws. At Leverkusen’s ground the gap is wider: four home wins from five. Freiburg’s only win there in that sample was Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-3 SC Freiburg on 3 September 2022. The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026, finished SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Before that, Leverkusen won 2-0 at home on 26 October 2025. Leverkusen have scored in all 10 of these meetings.
👀 What to Watch
The key duel is Leverkusen’s advanced full-backs against Freiburg’s counter. Freiburg do not need much possession; they need it in the space behind those full-backs. If Leverkusen lose the ball high with both wide players committed, Freiburg’s quick switches can punish them, as Elversberg and Mainz did by scoring three each.
The opposite question is whether Leverkusen’s patient circulation can pull Freiburg’s block apart. A side that has conceded only 4 in five games will not open up easily. Set pieces could decide it either way.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 54% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 20% for Freiburg. Expected goals: 1.6–0.9.
Leverkusen’s home record in this fixture and their perfect home form this season drive the read. Freiburg’s tight defence explains why the model expects fewer goals than this fixture’s high-scoring history suggests. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Freiburg
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: BayArena
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 6
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg being played?
- Venue: BayArena
- Who won the last meeting between Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg?
- Nobody. The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026 at Freiburg's ground, ended SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Leverkusen won the previous meeting 2-0 at home on 26 October 2025.
- How can I watch Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
- What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg?
- Our prediction is Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Freiburg. Leverkusen have won four of their last five home meetings with Freiburg, but Freiburg's defence has conceded only 4 goals in five games.