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Match Prediction
Mönchengladbach win
Draw
Hoffenheim win
Mönchengladbach or draw
Hoffenheim or draw
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.3 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC · Track record
Bottom Two Collide at Borussia-Park
Matchday 6 closes with the Bundesliga’s bottom two clubs facing each other at Borussia-Park. Gladbach go into the round 18th, without a point from 5 games. Hoffenheim sit one place and three points above them in 17th. For Eugen Polański’s side, a sixth straight league defeat would turn a poor start into a crisis.
The State of Mönchengladbach
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Mönchengladbach’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Köln | Away | L 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Mainz | Home | L 3-4 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Freiburg | Away | L 0-5 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Elversberg | Home | L 3-4 | Bundesliga |
| 29 Aug | RB Leipzig | Away | L 0-3 | Bundesliga |
The tally is stark: 0 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost, with 7 scored and 18 conceded. They have kept no clean sheets. The home results are the real worry. Gladbach lost 3-4 at home to Mainz and lost 3-4 at home to Elversberg. Scoring three at Borussia-Park and still losing points to a defensive structure that breaks under pressure, not to a blunt attack. The 0-5 defeat away at Freiburg was the low point. The most recent game, a 1-2 loss away at Köln in the Rhineland derby, was at least tighter. Polański’s first job is the space between midfield and the back four, where opponents keep finding runners.
The State of Hoffenheim
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Hoffenheim’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Hamburg | Home | L 2-3 | Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep | Paderborn | Away | L 1-3 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Stuttgart | Home | W 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Dortmund | Home | L 2-3 | Bundesliga |
| 29 Aug | Köln | Away | L 2-3 | Bundesliga |
Christian Ilzer’s side have 1 win and 4 defeats from their last five, with 9 scored and 13 conceded. They have scored in every one of those games, and that is the platform. The problem sits at the other end. They have no clean sheets either, and they have lost two in a row. The latest was a 2-3 loss at home to Hamburg, after they lost 1-3 away at Paderborn. The 2-1 win at home to Stuttgart showed what Ilzer’s high-energy, front-foot approach looks like when the game stays compact.
Head-to-Head
Gladbach lead the last ten meetings with 6 wins to Hoffenheim’s 2, plus 2 draws. At Borussia-Park the record is stronger still: 4 Gladbach wins, 1 draw and no Hoffenheim win in 5 meetings. The latest meeting, on 16 May 2026, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. That came four months after Hoffenheim won 5-1 at home. Only 1 of the 10 meetings had 2 goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The first goal matters more than usual. Gladbach have shown at home that they can score, but they cannot protect a scoreline. Hoffenheim score every week, so a nervous home defence facing a side that presses high is the central matchup. The counterpoint: Hoffenheim’s back line has leaked too, and this fixture rarely stays tight. If Gladbach survive the opening spell, the crowd and the head-to-head history at Borussia-Park favour them.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Mönchengladbach a 34% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 38% for Hoffenheim. Expected goals: 1.2–1.3.
1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.5%, but with the win probabilities favouring Hoffenheim, we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. Gladbach’s five straight defeats outweigh their home record in this fixture, although that history suggests the model may be generous to the visitors. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Mönchengladbach 0-1 Hoffenheim
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:30 UTC / 17:30 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 11:30 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 16:30 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: Borussia-Park
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 6
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:30 UTC / 17:30 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 11:30 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 16:30 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim being played?
- Venue: Borussia-Park
- Who won the last meeting between Mönchengladbach and Hoffenheim?
- Mönchengladbach won the last meeting 4-0 at Borussia-Park on 16 May 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim?
- Our prediction is Mönchengladbach 0-1 Hoffenheim. Gladbach have lost five in a row and have not kept a clean sheet, while Hoffenheim have scored in each of their last five games.
- How can I watch Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)