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Match Prediction
Cardiff win
Draw
Birmingham win
Cardiff or draw
Birmingham or draw
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.3 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 21 Oct 2026, 05:45 UTC · Track record
Strugglers Host a Promotion Contender
Cardiff start the round 19th on 11 points from 11 games. Birmingham arrive fourth on 20 points. The gap is 15 places and 9 points, and the visitors come in on three straight wins. Brian Barry-Murphy’s side need home points against a team that has stopped conceding.
The State of Cardiff
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Cardiff’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Middlesbrough | Away | D 2-2 | Championship |
| 13 Oct | Watford | Home | W 5-1 | Championship |
| 10 Oct | Blackburn | Away | L 1-2 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Charlton | Home | W 3-1 | Championship |
| 12 Sep | Bolton | Away | L 0-1 | Championship |
Cardiff are two clubs in one. At home they have won both of their last two, including a 5-1 win at home to Watford. Away from Cardiff they have not won in three, and the latest was a 2-2 draw away at Middlesbrough. They scored 11 goals across the five games listed. They also conceded 7 and kept no clean sheets, so every game turns into a shootout.
That suits a home crowd but carries risk against a side this tight. Cardiff push numbers forward to create chances. The cost shows up in transition, where opponents keep finding space behind their full-backs. Holding a lead has been the problem, not making one.
The State of Birmingham
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Birmingham’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | QPR | Home | W 3-0 | Championship |
| 13 Oct | Preston | Home | W 4-0 | Championship |
| 10 Oct | West Brom | Away | W 1-0 | Championship |
| 19 Sep | Middlesbrough | Home | D 2-2 | Championship |
| 12 Sep | Derby | Away | W 2-1 | Championship |
Chris Davies has Birmingham winning games in two ways. They thrashed teams 4-0 at home to Preston and 3-0 at home to QPR. They also ground out a 1-0 win away at West Brom, which shows they can win a tight game on the road. They are unbeaten in their last five, with 3 clean sheets and 12 goals scored against 3 conceded. Both of those away games ended in wins.
The defensive line is the foundation. Birmingham defend compactly, deny space between the lines and back themselves to score once their pressure tells.
Head-to-Head
This fixture has favoured Cardiff for years. Across the last nine meetings, Cardiff won 5, Birmingham 1 and 3 were drawn. Birmingham have not scored three in any of those games. The most recent meeting, on 10 April 2024, ended Birmingham 0-1 Cardiff at Birmingham’s ground. In Cardiff, the record is closer: Cardiff won 2 of 4, Birmingham won 1 and 1 was drawn.
👀 What to Watch
The test is Cardiff’s attack against Birmingham’s defence. Cardiff have scored freely at home. Birmingham have kept three clean sheets in their last five. If Cardiff score first, Birmingham must open up, and that plays to the hosts. If Birmingham score first, Cardiff will commit bodies forward, and Birmingham will have space to counter.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Cardiff a 32% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 40% for Birmingham. Expected goals: 1.2–1.3. Birmingham’s defensive form and Cardiff’s lack of clean sheets drive the lean towards the visitors. Cardiff’s home form and their head-to-head record keep this close. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but the win probabilities favour Birmingham, so we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Cardiff 0-1 Birmingham
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Cardiff City Stadium
- Competition: Championship, Matchday 12
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
FAQ
- What time is Cardiff vs Birmingham?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 15:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 16:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Cardiff vs Birmingham being played?
- Venue: Cardiff City Stadium
- How can I watch Cardiff vs Birmingham?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Cardiff and Birmingham?
- Cardiff won 1-0 at Birmingham's ground on 10 April 2024. Cardiff have won 5 of the last nine meetings, against 1 win for Birmingham, with 3 draws.
- What is the predicted score for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
- Our prediction is Cardiff 0-1 Birmingham. Birmingham's three clean sheets in their last five games face a Cardiff side that kept no clean sheets in theirs.