vs
Club crests © respective clubs. Used for editorial identification only.
Match Prediction
Paderborn win
Draw
Hamburg win
Paderborn or draw
Hamburg or draw
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.3 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 19:18 UTC · Track record
Paderborn Need Points Against Rising Hamburg
Paderborn go into Matchday 7 sitting 16th on 5 points from 6 games. Hamburg arrive 9th on 9 points, so the visitors are 4 points and 7 places better off. Hamburg also bring a run of three straight Bundesliga wins. For Ralf Kettemann’s side, this is a home game they need to turn into points before the bottom of the table starts to define their autumn.
The State of Paderborn
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Paderborn’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Werder Bremen | Away | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 10 Oct | Stuttgart | Home | L 0-2 | Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep | Hoffenheim | Home | W 3-1 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Dortmund | Away | L 0-3 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Freiburg | Home | L 0-1 | Bundesliga |
The 3-1 home win over Hoffenheim is still their only victory in this five-game run. The 2-2 draw away at Werder Bremen showed they can score on the road. The bigger problem is the blank days: they failed to score in 3 of the 5 games and kept no clean sheets. Home form is the real concern, with 2 of 3 home games lost, including 0-2 at home to Stuttgart. Paderborn want to press high and push numbers forward, but that energy has not yet produced enough clear chances in front of their own crowd.
The State of Hamburg
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Hamburg’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Stuttgart | Home | W 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| 10 Oct | Hoffenheim | Away | W 3-2 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Köln | Home | W 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| 13 Sep | RB Leipzig | Away | L 0-5 | Bundesliga |
| 6 Sep | Mainz | Home | L 0-5 | Bundesliga |
Merlin Polzin’s side have recovered from a brutal September. They lost 0-5 at home to Mainz and 0-5 away at RB Leipzig, and that pair of results could have broken them. Instead they have won 3 in a row. The 1-0 win at home to Stuttgart was their only clean sheet of the five games, and the 3-2 win away at Hoffenheim showed they can survive an open match. The tally still carries the scars, with 6 scored and 13 conceded. This revival comes from defending better, not from outscoring opponents.
Head-to-Head
We have no recent head-to-head data for this fixture, so current form frames this meeting more than history does.
👀 What to Watch
Paderborn’s press against a repaired back line
Hamburg conceded ten goals in two September games, then tightened up and started winning. Paderborn need to test that new structure early with aggressive pressing. A side that has failed to score in 3 of its last 5 games cannot afford to fall behind and chase.
Hamburg’s patience away from home
In the 0-2 home loss to Stuttgart, Paderborn struggled to break down a well-organised visitor. Hamburg beat that same Stuttgart side 1-0, so they have a blueprint: stay compact, absorb pressure and wait for one chance.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Paderborn a 32% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 40% for Hamburg. Expected goals: 1.2–1.3. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring Hamburg we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. Hamburg’s momentum and Paderborn’s blunt home attack drive that read, although the two heavy September defeats show Hamburg are not yet stable at the back. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Paderborn 0-1 Hamburg
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Home Deluxe Arena
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is Paderborn vs Hamburg?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Paderborn vs Hamburg being played?
- Venue: Home Deluxe Arena
- How can I watch Paderborn vs Hamburg?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
- What is the predicted score for Paderborn vs Hamburg?
- Our prediction is Paderborn 0-1 Hamburg. Hamburg arrive on three straight wins, while Paderborn have lost 2 of their last 3 home games.
- Where are Paderborn and Hamburg in the Bundesliga table?
- Before Matchday 7, Hamburg are 9th on 9 points and Paderborn are 16th on 5 points, both from 6 games.