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Match Prediction
Cambuur win
Draw
NEC win
Expected goals: 0.9 – 1.6 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength, recent form & H2H
Model Probabilities
Statistical model estimates — not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 8 Sep 2026, 23:22 UTC
Cambuur’s Search for a First Win Gets No Easier
Cambuur sit 18th in the Eredivisie on a single point from five matches, hosting a NEC side in ninth on seven points. The gap is already six points, and Johan Plat’s team have not won a league game this season. NEC, under Dick Schreuder, arrive in Leeuwarden with two wins, a draw, and two defeats, making this a match where the visitors carry clear momentum despite their own inconsistencies.
The State of Cambuur
The numbers are bleak. Four defeats and a draw from five Eredivisie outings, with six goals scored and 18 conceded. Cambuur opened with a 0-4 loss to Excelsior, fell 1-3 to Fortuna Sittard, were beaten 2-5 by Feyenoord, and lost 1-4 to Twente before finally stopping the bleeding with a 2-2 draw against Telstar. Johan Plat’s side have shown they can find the net, scoring in three of their last four league games, but the defensive record is alarming. Conceding at a rate above three goals per match is unsustainable at any level. The draw with Telstar might offer a sliver of hope that the worst is behind them, but the Kooi Stadion faithful will need to see far more solidity at the back before confidence returns.
The State of NEC
Dick Schreuder’s NEC have been a mixed bag. A strong 4-1 win over Willem II and a 3-1 victory against PEC Zwolle showed genuine attacking quality, but defeats to Telstar (1-2) and Feyenoord (1-3) exposed vulnerabilities. Their most recent outing, a 2-2 draw with Excelsior, came just days before this trip to Leeuwarden. That quick turnaround could be a factor, though NEC’s 11 goals scored in five games suggest they carry enough firepower to trouble a Cambuur defence that has leaked goals all season. Schreuder will want his side to impose themselves early and avoid letting Cambuur build any belief from their Telstar draw.
Head-to-Head
These two have not met since the 2022⁄23 season, but the recent history favours NEC. In four meetings, NEC have won twice, Cambuur once, with one draw. Notably, NEC have won both previous visits to Cambuur’s ground, 1-0 in November 2022 and 2-1 in April 2022. Cambuur’s sole win came away from home, a 3-2 result in Nijmegen in November 2021. The 0-0 draw at NEC in February 2023 was the most recent encounter. For Cambuur, reversing that home losing streak against NEC would be a significant step.
👀 What to Watch
Cambuur’s defensive fragility against NEC’s attacking output is the defining narrative. Cambuur have conceded 18 goals in five matches. NEC have scored 11. Schreuder’s side should fancy their chances of finding gaps, particularly in transition. The real question is whether Plat can tighten Cambuur’s shape enough to stay in the game. If Cambuur sit deep and frustrate, they have shown they can nick goals, as they did twice against Feyenoord and Telstar. But if NEC get an early goal, the floodgates could open given Cambuur’s tendency to concede in bunches.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Cambuur a 20% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 54% for NEC. Expected goals: 0.9–1.6. Both teams score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.
NEC’s superior form, their winning record at the Kooi Stadion in recent head-to-heads, and Cambuur’s porous defence all point toward an away win. The model puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 46%, which reflects Cambuur’s ability to grab a goal even in defeat, though a tight NEC win looks the most likely shape. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Cambuur 0-1 NEC
Practical Info
Kickoff: 21:00 CEST (Sat 12 Sep) / 20:00 BST (Sat 12 Sep) / 3:00 PM EDT (Sat 12 Sep). Venue: Kooi Stadion. Coverage is available via regional broadcast partners, check local listings.
FAQ
- What time is Cambuur vs NEC?
- Kickoff is at 21:00 CEST (Sat 12 Sep), 20:00 BST (Sat 12 Sep), or 3:00 PM EDT (Sat 12 Sep).
- Where is Cambuur vs NEC being played?
- The match is being played at the Kooi Stadion, Cambuur's home ground in Leeuwarden.
- What is the predicted score for Cambuur vs NEC?
- The predicted score is Cambuur 0-1 NEC. NEC have won both previous visits to Cambuur's ground, and Cambuur's defensive record this season, with 18 goals conceded in five matches, makes it difficult to see them keeping the visitors out.
- Who won the last meeting between Cambuur and NEC?
- The last meeting was a 0-0 draw at NEC's ground in February 2023. Before that, NEC won 1-0 at Cambuur in November 2022.
- Have Cambuur won a match this season?
- No. Through five Eredivisie matches in 2026/27, Cambuur have drawn once (2-2 with Telstar) and lost four times, sitting 18th in the table with one point.
