Alavés vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, La Liga 2026/27

Club crests © respective clubs. Used for editorial identification only.

Model v2 · Generated 21 Sep 2026, 19:03 UTC · Track record

Atletico Ride Derby High Into Mendizorroza Test

Atletico Madrid travel to Mendizorroza on Saturday carrying serious momentum after beating Real Madrid 2-1 in last weekend’s derby. Alavés, meanwhile, need to arrest a slide: after a blistering start to the season that included a 5-2 demolition of Osasuna, Quique Sanchez Flores’s side have taken just one point from their last three league outings. This is a fixture where Alavés have historically competed well at home, but the visitors arrive in a very different mood to recent seasons.

The State of Alavés

The early-season optimism at Mendizorroza has cooled. Alavés opened brightly, beating Villarreal 1-0 before that emphatic 5-2 win over Osasuna. Since then, the picture has changed: defeats to Racing Santander (1-2) and Valencia (0-1) preceded a goalless draw with Athletic Club. Quique Sanchez Flores will be concerned that a side which scored six goals in two games has now managed zero in three. Denís Suárez remains the creative heartbeat in midfield, while Ander Guevara and Antonio Blanco provide the running and structure behind him. In defence, Facundo Garcés and Nahuel Tenaglia have been steady, and goalkeeper Sivera will need to be sharp against an Atletico attack that has found its range. The return of goals is the priority: without them, a promising campaign risks stalling.

The State of Atletico Madrid

Diego Simeone’s squad looked vulnerable in early September, losing 0-3 at home to Athletic Club and then falling 1-2 to Liverpool in the Champions League. What followed was a ruthless correction: 3-0 against Real Sociedad, 4-0 against Osasuna, and the statement-making 2-1 derby victory over Real Madrid. That three-match domestic run produced nine goals scored and one conceded. Jan Oblak continues to anchor the defence, with Robin Le Normand and Christian Romero forming a formidable centre-back pairing. Koke’s experience in midfield steadies the tempo, and Marcos Llorente offers the versatility Simeone prizes. Alejandro Grimaldo adds width and delivery from the left. This is an Atletico side that has responded to adversity in the way Simeone teams always do: with structure, intensity, and clinical finishing.

Head-to-Head

The last ten meetings between these clubs paint a clear picture: Atletico have won six, Alavés two, with two draws. At Mendizorroza specifically, Alavés have a better record (two wins, one defeat, two draws from five meetings), but neither of the last two visits produced an Atletico loss (1-1 in August 2025, 0-0 in May 2025). The fixture tends toward low-scoring affairs: six of the last ten meetings featured two goals or fewer in total. The most recent meeting, in January 2026, ended 1-0 to Atletico at their own ground.

👀 What to Watch

Alavés’s goalscoring drought across three matches runs straight into an Atletico defence that conceded just once in their last three league games. Simeone’s backline, with Romero and Le Normand reading danger and Oblak sweeping behind, is extremely difficult to break down when set. The question is whether Denís Suárez and Aleñà can find enough space between Atletico’s compact lines to create chances, or whether Simeone’s press pins Alavés deep. Conversely, Grimaldo’s overlapping runs on the left could test Tenaglia’s positioning, and that channel may be where this match is decided.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Alavés a 20% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 54% for Atletico Madrid. Expected goals: 0.9–1.6.

Atletico’s three-match winning run, combined with Alavés’s recent drought in front of goal, supports the visitors here. The head-to-head at Mendizorroza suggests a tight game, and the model’s expected goals reflect that: this is unlikely to be a blowout. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: Alavés 0-1 Atletico Madrid

Practical Info

Kickoff is at 16:15 CEST (Sat 10 Oct) / 10:15 AM EDT (Sat 10 Oct) / 15:15 BST (Sat 10 Oct) at Mendizorroza. The match is available via regional broadcast partners; check local listings.

FAQ

What time is Alavés vs Atletico Madrid?

Kickoff is at 16:15 CEST (Saturday 10 October), which is 10:15 AM EDT or 15:15 BST on the same day.

Where is Alavés vs Atletico Madrid being played?

The match takes place at Mendizorroza, the home ground of Deportivo Alavés in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Who won the last meeting between Alavés and Atletico Madrid?

Atletico Madrid won 1-0 at their own ground on 18 January 2026. The last meeting at Mendizorroza was a 1-1 draw in August 2025.

What is the predicted score for Alavés vs Atletico Madrid?

Our model predicts Alavés 0-1 Atletico Madrid. Atletico's recent three-match winning streak and Alavés's goal drought across three games both point toward a narrow away win.

What is the head-to-head record between Alavés and Atletico Madrid?

In the last ten meetings, Atletico Madrid have won six, Alavés two, with two draws. At Mendizorroza, the record is closer: Alavés have won two, Atletico one, with two draws.