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Match Prediction
Getafe win
Draw
Rayo Vallecano win
Getafe or draw
Rayo Vallecano or draw
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.2 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 17:08 UTC · Track record
A Madrid Derby With Nothing to Split Them
Getafe and Rayo Vallecano close out Matchday 9 with a southern Madrid derby at the Coliseum. Before the round began, the two clubs were level on 8 points. Rayo sat 13th and Getafe 14th, and Rayo have a game in hand. Getafe have not beaten their neighbours in any of the last ten meetings, so the hosts carry a hoodoo into this one as well as the table pressure.
The State of Getafe
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Getafe’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Barcelona | Away | L 0-3 | Primera Division |
| 20 Sep | Málaga | Home | W 1-0 | Primera Division |
| 17 Sep | Real Betis | Away | L 0-1 | Primera Division |
| 13 Sep | Deportivo | Home | D 1-1 | Primera Division |
| 7 Sep | Celta Vigo | Home | D 1-1 | Primera Division |
Pepe Bordalás’s side arrive after a 0-3 loss away at Barcelona in the Primera Division. Their last win was 1-0 at home to Málaga. The tally over five games reads 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost, with 3 goals scored and 6 conceded. They failed to score in 2 of those games.
The Coliseum is their foothold. They are unbeaten in 3 home games in this run (1 won, 2 drawn). The Bordalás identity is unchanged: a compact block, constant duels, early balls into the channels and a willingness to slow the game down. The problem is at the other end. Goals are scarce, and against a side that rarely keeps clean sheets, Getafe have to turn pressure into chances.
The State of Rayo Vallecano
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Rayo Vallecano’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | Osasuna | Away | D 1-1 | Primera Division |
| 15 Sep | Espanyol | Home | W 2-1 | Primera Division |
| 12 Sep | Real Madrid | Away | L 1-4 | Primera Division |
| 5 Sep | Racing Santander | Home | W 3-2 | Primera Division |
| 31 Aug | Barcelona | Away | L 2-5 | Primera Division |
Beñat San José’s Rayo come in unbeaten in 2, after a 1-1 draw away at Osasuna in the Primera Division. Before that they won 2-1 at home to Espanyol. Over five games they won 2, drew 1 and lost 2, with 9 scored and 13 conceded.
Those numbers sum up Rayo. They scored in every one of those five games but kept no clean sheets. Heavy defeats away at Real Madrid and Barcelona inflate the goals against, but the pattern holds. Rayo play on the front foot, push numbers forward and accept the risk behind them.
Head-to-Head
Rayo own this fixture. In the last ten meetings they have 4 wins and there were 6 draws, with no Getafe win. The most recent meeting was a 2-0 Rayo win at Getafe in La Liga on 3 May 2026. Low scores are the norm: 9 of the 10 meetings had 2 goals or fewer. Getafe scored in only 2 of them.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Getafe’s low block against Rayo’s attacking width. Bordalás will want to crowd the middle, win second balls and force Rayo to cross into a packed box. Rayo’s answer is speed of circulation and full-backs pushing high. That leaves space behind them, and Getafe’s direct game is built to find it. If Getafe score first, Rayo must open up even further, and the derby could turn scrappy.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Getafe a 36% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 36% for Rayo Vallecano. Expected goals: 1.2–1.2. Getafe’s home resilience meets Rayo’s knack for scoring, and the head-to-head history leans heavily towards a tight, low-scoring game. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Getafe 1-1 Rayo Vallecano
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Monday 19 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 21:00 CEST (Mon 19 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Mon 19 Oct) / 20:00 BST (Mon 19 Oct)
- Venue: Coliseum
- Competition: La Liga, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
FAQ
- What time is Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Kickoff: Monday 19 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 21:00 CEST (Mon 19 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Mon 19 Oct) / 20:00 BST (Mon 19 Oct)
- Where is Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
- Venue: Coliseum
- Who won the last meeting between Getafe and Rayo Vallecano?
- Rayo Vallecano won 2-0 at Getafe's ground on 3 May 2026. Getafe have not won any of the last ten meetings.
- How can I watch Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano on TV?
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
- What is the predicted score for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Our prediction is Getafe 1-1 Rayo Vallecano. Getafe are unbeaten at home in this run of form, Rayo have scored in every game, and 9 of the last 10 meetings had 2 goals or fewer.