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Match Prediction
ADO Den Haag win
Draw
Heerenveen win
ADO Den Haag or draw
Heerenveen or draw
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.4 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 21 Oct 2026, 01:33 UTC · Track record
ADO Carry PSV Scalp Into Heerenveen Test
ADO Den Haag go into Matchday 10 in 17th place, with 6 points from 9 games. Heerenveen sit 8th on 12 points, so six points and nine places separate the clubs. For Robin Peter’s side, this match shows whether the 2-1 home win over PSV was a turning point or a one-off. For Robin Veldman’s Heerenveen, a result in The Hague would back up the 4-0 rout of Excelsior.
The State of ADO Den Haag
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows ADO Den Haag’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | PSV | Home | W 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| 11 Oct | Telstar | Away | D 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | Cambuur | Home | D 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| 12 Sep | Twente | Away | L 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| 6 Sep | Fortuna Sittard | Home | L 2-3 | Eredivisie |
The PSV win changed the mood at the Bingoal Stadion. ADO are now unbeaten in their last three, and the 2-2 draw away at Telstar showed they can find goals on the road too. Scoring is not the main problem: they have 7 goals in their last five games. The defence is. ADO have conceded 9 in that run and have not kept a single clean sheet. At home they push high and feed off the crowd, and against PSV that intensity paid off. Against a side that can punish open space, the same approach carries real risk.
The State of Heerenveen
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Heerenveen’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct | Excelsior | Home | W 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| 9 Oct | PSV | Away | L 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| 19 Sep | Sparta Rotterdam | Away | W 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| 13 Sep | Telstar | Home | D 0-0 | Eredivisie |
| 6 Sep | AZ | Home | L 2-3 | Eredivisie |
Heerenveen are hard to read. They won 4-0 away at Sparta Rotterdam and 4-0 at home to Excelsior, but they lost 0-2 away at PSV between those games. Over five matches they have scored 10, conceded 5 and kept 3 clean sheets. They also failed to score in two of those games, so their output comes in bursts. That swing fits a club built on developing young players, with all the inconsistency that brings. The defensive record is the strongest number either club brings to this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The recent record comes from the 2019/20 and 2020/21 Eredivisie seasons. Of the three meetings shown, Heerenveen won one and two ended level. ADO did not win any of them. The latest was on 6 March 2021, when Heerenveen beat ADO Den Haag 3-0 at their own ground. The last visit to The Hague, on 28 November 2020, ended ADO Den Haag 1-1 SC Heerenveen.
👀 What to Watch
The first goal matters more than usual. Heerenveen’s clean sheets suggest that once they lead, they can close a game down. ADO have shown resilience, coming from behind for draws and holding on against PSV. But a leaky back line against a side that has twice scored four in this run is a dangerous mix. If ADO can rebuild the compact shape that frustrated PSV, Heerenveen’s inconsistency in front of goal gives the home side an opening.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives ADO Den Haag a 27% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 45% for Heerenveen. Expected goals: 1.1–1.4. Heerenveen’s tighter defence and the gap in the table drive that read, even with ADO’s improved form. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.2%. With the win probabilities favouring Heerenveen, we take their most likely winning score, 0-1. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: ADO Den Haag 0-1 Heerenveen
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 21:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 20:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Bingoal Stadion
- Competition: Eredivisie, Matchday 10
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)
FAQ
- What time is ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 19:00 UTC / 21:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 20:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 3:00 PM EDT (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen being played?
- Venue: Bingoal Stadion
- Who won the last meeting between ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen?
- Heerenveen won the most recent meeting 3-0 at their own ground on 6 March 2021.
- What is the predicted score for ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen?
- Our prediction is ADO Den Haag 0-1 Heerenveen. Heerenveen's better defensive record and higher league position give them the edge over an ADO side without a clean sheet in their last five games.
- How can I watch ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen on TV?
- Where to watch: ESPN (Netherlands)