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Match Prediction
Crystal Palace win
Draw
Newcastle win
Crystal Palace or draw
Newcastle or draw
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.1 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 20:34 UTC · Track record
One Point Separates Two Struggling Sides
Newcastle go into the round 11th on 8 points from 7 games. Crystal Palace sit three places and one point behind them, 14th on 7 points. Both clubs come into this game after heavy defeats, and both have conceded more goals than they have scored.
The State of Crystal Palace
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Crystal Palace’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Brighton | Away | L 0-5 | Premier League |
| 11 Oct | Nottingham Forest | Home | W 3-1 | Premier League |
| 20 Sep | Leeds | Away | D 0-0 | Premier League |
| 12 Sep | Ipswich | Home | L 2-3 | Premier League |
| 5 Sep | Fulham | Away | W 3-2 | Premier League |
Palace have been hard to predict. Their record over the last five reads 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost, with 8 scored and 11 conceded. The 3-1 win at home to Nottingham Forest showed what this side can do at Selhurst Park. The next game was a 0-5 loss away at Brighton, the kind of collapse that has left them with the worst goal difference of the clubs listed in the table snapshot.
Under Pierre Sage, Palace are most dangerous in transition, when they go forward quickly into space behind a high line. The problem is at the other end. Only one clean sheet in five games tells you the defensive shape has not held. Selhurst Park remains their best asset, but the defeat at home to Ipswich shows that the ground does not guarantee points.
The State of Newcastle
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Newcastle’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Aston Villa | Home | L 0-1 | Premier League |
| 12 Oct | Coventry City | Away | L 1-4 | Premier League |
| 19 Sep | Hull City | Home | W 2-1 | Premier League |
| 14 Sep | Leeds | Away | L 1-4 | Premier League |
| 5 Sep | Bournemouth | Home | D 2-2 | Premier League |
Newcastle’s form under Matthias Jaissle is worse. Their record over the last five is 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost, with 6 scored, 12 conceded and no clean sheet. They come to London on two straight defeats. The 1-4 loss away at Coventry City was followed by a 0-1 defeat at home to Aston Villa.
The away form is the concern. Newcastle have lost both of their away games in this run, and they conceded four goals in each of them, at Coventry and at Leeds. A side built to press high has been open on the counter when that press is broken.
Head-to-Head
Newcastle lead the last nine meetings with 4 wins to Palace’s 2, plus 3 draws. At Selhurst Park the picture changes. Across the four meetings there, Palace won 2, drew 2 and Newcastle won none. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, when Palace won 2-1. Low scores are the norm: 6 of the 9 meetings had two goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The space behind Newcastle’s defence. Both of their recent heavy away defeats came after opponents attacked quickly once the visitors lost the ball. That is exactly how Palace like to play at home. If Newcastle press high and get beaten, Palace’s runners will have room to attack.
The second question is Palace’s response to the 0-5 result at Brighton. A side that conceded five will likely sit deeper early on. That could make the first half a cautious game.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Crystal Palace a 44% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 28% for Newcastle. Expected goals: 1.4–1.1.
Palace’s unbeaten home record against Newcastle in this sample and the visitors’ two away defeats push the model towards the home side. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.2%, but with the win probabilities favouring Palace we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-0 Newcastle
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 14:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 15:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Selhurst Park
- Competition: Premier League, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
FAQ
- What time is Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC / 14:00 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 10:00 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 15:00 CET (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Crystal Palace vs Newcastle being played?
- Venue: Selhurst Park
- How can I watch Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
- Where to watch: Sky Sports, TNT Sports & BBC Match of the Day (UK) / NBC Sports & Peacock (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Crystal Palace and Newcastle?
- Crystal Palace won the last meeting 2-1 at Selhurst Park on 12 April 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
- Our prediction is Crystal Palace 1-0 Newcastle. Palace are unbeaten at home against Newcastle in the last four meetings at Selhurst Park, and Newcastle lost both of their recent away games.