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Match Prediction
Frosinone win
Draw
Sassuolo win
Frosinone or draw
Sassuolo or draw
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.2 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:48 UTC · Track record
Friday Night Test at the Stirpe
Frosinone go into the round 9th on 10 points from 6 games, two places and two points clear of 11th-placed Sassuolo. This Friday fixture opens Matchday 7, and both sides arrive after heavy games against Serie A giants. It is a direct measure of which club’s bright start has the more solid base.
The State of Frosinone
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Frosinone’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Napoli | Away | L 0-3 | Serie A |
| 20 Sep | Como | Home | W 2-0 | Serie A |
| 12 Sep | Genoa | Away | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 6 Sep | Venezia | Home | W 3-2 | Serie A |
| 29 Aug | Fiorentina | Away | W 3-0 | Serie A |
Massimiliano Alvini’s side have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from their last five Serie A games, with 9 goals scored and 6 conceded. The high point was the 3-0 win away at Fiorentina. The low point came last time out: a 0-3 defeat away at Napoli, the only game in the run where they failed to score.
Home form is the base of their season. Frosinone won both of their games at the Stirpe in this run, and both of their clean sheets came in wins. Alvini’s teams play on the front foot and push numbers into wide areas. That approach gives them goals, but Napoli showed the space it leaves behind when the ball is lost.
The State of Sassuolo
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Sassuolo’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Milan | Home | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 18 Sep | Monza | Away | L 1-2 | Serie A |
| 13 Sep | Juventus | Home | W 3-2 | Serie A |
| 6 Sep | Bologna | Away | D 2-2 | Serie A |
| 29 Aug | Torino | Home | W 2-1 | Serie A |
Alberto Aquilani’s side have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from their last five, with 9 scored and 8 conceded. They beat Juventus 3-2 at home and then drew 1-1 at home to Milan, so they can trouble anyone on their own ground.
The problem is the other end and the road. Sassuolo have no clean sheets in this run, and they are without a win in their last 2. Away from home they have no wins from 2 games, including a 1-2 defeat away at Monza. They keep the ball well and score in every game, but they also give chances away.
Head-to-Head
The two most recent meetings are split one win each. On 17 September 2023, Frosinone beat Sassuolo 4-2 at home. On 9 March 2024, Sassuolo won 1-0 at their own ground.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Frosinone’s attack against a Sassuolo back line that has not kept a clean sheet in five games. Frosinone scored in both home wins in this run. If they win the ball high and attack quickly, Sassuolo’s defence will be under pressure for long spells.
The reverse risk is Sassuolo’s passing through the lines. Napoli punished Frosinone’s open structure, and Aquilani’s side have the technical quality to try the same.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Frosinone a 39% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 33% for Sassuolo. Expected goals: 1.3–1.2. Frosinone’s perfect home record in this run and Sassuolo’s winless away form tip the balance slightly to the hosts. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring Frosinone we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Frosinone 1-0 Sassuolo
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Friday 16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Fri 16 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Fri 16 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Fri 16 Oct)
- Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Frosinone vs Sassuolo?
- Kickoff: Friday 16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 20:45 CEST (Fri 16 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Fri 16 Oct) / 19:45 BST (Fri 16 Oct)
- Where is Frosinone vs Sassuolo being played?
- Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe
- How can I watch Frosinone vs Sassuolo on TV?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
- Who won the last meeting between Frosinone and Sassuolo?
- Sassuolo won the most recent meeting 1-0 at their own ground on 9 March 2024.
- What is the predicted score for Frosinone vs Sassuolo?
- Our prediction is Frosinone 1-0 Sassuolo. Frosinone won both home games in their recent run, while Sassuolo have not won either of their recent away games.