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Match Prediction
Osasuna win
Draw
Racing Santander win
Osasuna or draw
Racing Santander or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 13 Oct 2026, 16:55 UTC · Track record
Level on Points, Leaking Goals
Racing Santander go into the round 15th and Osasuna 16th, level on 8 points from 8 games, with Racing ahead on the tiebreak. Osasuna are without a win in their last five, and Racing without one in their last three. Whoever wins at El Sadar gets out of a slump. Whoever loses starts to look like a relegation candidate.
The State of Osasuna
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Osasuna’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Real Betis | Away | L 2-5 | Primera Division |
| 19 Sep | Rayo Vallecano | Home | D 1-1 | Primera Division |
| 16 Sep | Atletico Madrid | Away | L 0-4 | Primera Division |
| 12 Sep | Espanyol | Home | L 0-2 | Primera Division |
| 6 Sep | Alavés | Away | L 2-5 | Primera Division |
The trouble for Luis Ramis’s side is at the back. They have conceded 17 goals in their last five games, with no clean sheet, and failed to score in two of them. Their latest outing ended in a 2-5 defeat away at Real Betis, after a 0-4 loss away at Atletico Madrid in La Liga. Even at home they have only a draw and a defeat from two games, so El Sadar has stopped scaring visitors. Osasuna are at their best when the ground is loud and the game is played at a high tempo, with early crosses and second balls. Now they need a performance that wins the crowd back early.
The State of Racing Santander
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Racing Santander’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Valencia | Home | D 2-2 | Primera Division |
| 19 Sep | Celta Vigo | Away | L 0-5 | Primera Division |
| 16 Sep | Barcelona | Away | L 2-7 | Primera Division |
| 12 Sep | Alavés | Home | W 2-1 | Primera Division |
| 5 Sep | Rayo Vallecano | Away | L 2-3 | Primera Division |
José Alberto López’s side commit men forward and score goals: 8 in their last five. They also give up far too many, conceding 18 in that run. Away from home it has gone badly: they lost 2-7 away at Barcelona and 0-5 away at Celta Vigo. In Santander they look like a different team, unbeaten in their two home games with a win and a draw. Racing were one of La Liga’s founding clubs, and this is a test of whether that attacking approach can survive a hostile away ground.
Head-to-Head
We have no recent head-to-head data for these clubs, so the read here comes from current form, not history.
👀 What to Watch
The first goal looks decisive. Racing have lost all three away games in their recent run, and in two of them the scoreline got out of hand. Osasuna have shipped five goals twice on their travels, but at home they have been harder to break down. If the hosts score early, Racing’s away fragility could show again. If Racing score first, the home crowd’s nerves could become the story. Racing’s attack has scored away from home even while losing, and Osasuna have no clean sheet in five. Expect chances at both ends.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Osasuna a 49% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 24% for Racing Santander. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0. Home advantage and Racing’s poor away results drive that lean, despite Osasuna’s own bad run. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 12.8%, but with the win probabilities favouring Osasuna we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. With both defences this loose, a goalless second half would surprise us. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Osasuna 1-0 Racing Santander
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC / 14:00 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 8:00 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 13:00 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Venue: El Sadar
- Competition: La Liga, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
FAQ
- What time is Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
- Kickoff: Sunday 18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC / 14:00 CEST (Sun 18 Oct) / 8:00 AM EDT (Sun 18 Oct) / 13:00 BST (Sun 18 Oct)
- Where is Osasuna vs Racing Santander being played?
- Venue: El Sadar
- How can I watch Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
- Where to watch: Premier Sports & Disney+ (UK) / ESPN (US)
- Where are Osasuna and Racing Santander in the La Liga table?
- Before Matchday 9, Racing Santander are 15th and Osasuna 16th. Both clubs have 8 points from 8 games.
- What is the predicted score for Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
- Our prediction is Osasuna 1-0 Racing Santander. Racing have lost all three away games in their recent run, and that tilts a tight game towards the home side.