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Match Prediction
Estrela win
Draw
Casa Pia win
Estrela or draw
Casa Pia or draw
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.1 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:46 UTC · Track record
Casa Pia Need a Lifeline in Amadora
Estrela go into Matchday 9 10th on 10 points from 8 games, while Casa Pia sit 17th on 4 points from 8. Seven places and six points split these Lisbon-area neighbours at Estádio José Gomes. For Filipe Coelho’s side, this is a chance to stop a bad start from turning into a relegation fight. Pepa’s Estrela need a result just as much to end a run of two straight defeats.
The State of Estrela
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Estrela’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Arouca | Away | L 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 20 Sep | Académico Viseu | Home | L 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| 14 Sep | Rio Ave | Away | D 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| 10 Sep | Braga | Home | W 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 5 Sep | Famalicão | Home | D 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
The early weeks promised more than this. Estrela won 2-1 at home to Braga, a result that showed they can hurt a side with European ambitions in front of their own crowd. Since then they have gone three games without a win, and the attack has dried up: they lost 0-2 at home to Académico Viseu and then 0-1 away at Arouca.
The tally shows the problem. Estrela kept 0 clean sheets in five games, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their games stay open, which suits them when the goals come and leaves them exposed when they do not. They failed to score in 2 of those five games. Against a visiting side that has struggled to create chances, Estrela will have to take the initiative and keep the ball high up the pitch.
The State of Casa Pia
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Casa Pia’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Santa Clara | Home | L 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 20 Sep | Estoril | Away | W 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 12 Sep | Porto | Home | L 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
| 6 Sep | Vitória | Away | D 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 30 Aug | Moreirense | Home | L 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
Casa Pia have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last five, with 3 goals scored and 7 conceded. They have failed to score in 3 of those games. The real oddity is the home and away split. All 3 home games ended in defeat, the latest a 0-1 loss at home to Santa Clara. On the road they are unbeaten in two: a 2-1 win away at Estoril and a 0-0 draw away at Vitória.
That away form points to a side that is more comfortable without the ball, sitting deep and breaking quickly. The problem is the final third. A team that scores this rarely leaves itself almost no room for error.
Head-to-Head
Estrela lead the last six meetings with 4 wins to Casa Pia’s 2, and none of those six ended in a draw. The recent games went Estrela’s way by a wide margin: they beat Casa Pia 4-0 at their own ground on 20 March 2026, after a 3-5 away win at Casa Pia on 1 November 2025. On this ground, Estrela have won 2 of the 3 meetings. Casa Pia’s single win here was a 0-1 in August 2024.
👀 What to Watch
The key question is whether Estrela can break down a deep block. Casa Pia’s two away results came from compact, low-risk football. Estrela have scored freely in some games and not at all in others. If the visitors keep it level past the hour, the pressure moves to the home side and their nervy back line.
Casa Pia’s thin attack also gets a real chance. Estrela have not kept a clean sheet in five games, so one well-worked counter could be enough.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Estrela a 41% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 31% for Casa Pia. Expected goals: 1.4–1.1. Estrela’s home record in this fixture and Casa Pia’s lack of goals tilt the edge to the hosts. Casa Pia’s away form is why this is no formality. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring Estrela we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Estrela 1-0 Casa Pia
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC / 15:30 WEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 15:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 10:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Estádio José Gomes
- Competition: Primeira Liga, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Estrela vs Casa Pia?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC / 15:30 WEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 15:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct) / 10:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Estrela vs Casa Pia being played?
- Venue: Estádio José Gomes
- How can I watch Estrela vs Casa Pia in the US?
- Where to watch: beIN Sports (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Estrela and Casa Pia?
- Estrela won the last meeting 4-0 at their own ground on 20 March 2026. They have won the last two meetings.
- What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
- Our prediction is Estrela 1-0 Casa Pia. Casa Pia have failed to score in 3 of their last five games, and Estrela have won 2 of the last 3 meetings at this ground.