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Match Prediction
Napoli win
Draw
Roma win
Napoli or draw
Roma or draw
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.2 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 21 Oct 2026, 05:48 UTC · Track record
Seven Points Between Them at the Maradona
Roma go into the round third on 17 points from seven games. Napoli sit ninth on 10, so the visitors lead by seven points and six places before a ball is kicked in Naples. For the champions of 2025, this is a chance to stop the top of the table from drifting away. For Roma, it is a real away test of whether they belong in the title conversation.
The State of Napoli
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Napoli’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct | Bodø/Glimt | Home | W 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| 17 Oct | Venezia | Away | L 0-1 | Serie A |
| 13 Oct | Villarreal | Away | L 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Oct | Frosinone | Home | W 3-0 | Serie A |
| 20 Sep | Fiorentina | Away | D 1-1 | Serie A |
Massimiliano Allegri’s side look like two different teams depending on the venue. Both home games in this run were wins. None of the three away trips produced one. The 4-3 win at home to Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League showed attacking life, but three goals conceded to a visiting side is a warning. In Serie A, the 0-1 defeat away at Venezia is the result that hurts. Napoli have conceded 8 in five games across all competitions.
Kevin De Bruyne is the reference point. His passing between the lines is how Napoli break down compact blocks, and his set-piece delivery adds a second route to goal. Behind him, Amir Rrahmani and Alessandro Buongiorno must give a leaky line some calm, while Giovanni Di Lorenzo’s overlaps supply width on the right.
The State of Roma
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Roma’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct | Slovan Bratislava | Home | W 4-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| 17 Oct | Genoa | Home | W 2-0 | Serie A |
| 14 Oct | Real Madrid | Home | L 3-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| 11 Oct | Como | Away | D 0-0 | Serie A |
| 19 Sep | Inter Milan | Home | D 2-2 | Serie A |
Gian Piero Gasperini’s Roma arrive on two straight wins: 2-0 at home to Genoa in Serie A, then 4-0 at home to Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League. Three clean sheets in five games tell you where the foundation is. Mile Svilar, Evan N’Dicka and Gianluca Mancini anchor a back line that defends aggressively and high.
There is a caveat. Four of those five games were in Rome, and the only away trip ended 0-0 away at Como. Wing-back Wesley carries much of the attacking load in Gasperini’s system, and his duel with Napoli’s full-backs will shape the flanks.
Head-to-Head
This fixture rarely opens up. Across the last ten meetings, Napoli won 4, Roma won 1 and 5 were draws. No side scored more than twice in any of them. In Naples, Roma have not won in the five visits shown: Napoli won 2 and 3 were drawn. The most recent meeting, on 15 February 2026 at the Maradona, finished Napoli 2-2 Roma.
👀 What to Watch
De Bruyne against Roma’s man-to-man press is the key duel. Gasperini asks his centre-backs, Mancini above all, to follow runners deep into midfield. If De Bruyne drops to collect the ball and drags a marker with him, space opens behind Roma’s line. If Roma win those duels, Napoli’s build-up has no plan B.
The other story is Napoli’s home record against Roma’s travel record. Napoli have won both home games in this run. Roma have played only once away.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Napoli a 37% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 35% for Roma. Expected goals: 1.3–1.2. Roma’s better form and tighter defence are offset by Napoli’s home record and a head-to-head history full of draws and low scores. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Napoli 1-1 Roma
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC / 18:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 12:00 PM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 17:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Napoli vs Roma?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC / 18:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 12:00 PM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 17:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Napoli vs Roma being played?
- Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
- How can I watch Napoli vs Roma?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
- Who won the last meeting between Napoli and Roma?
- Nobody. The last meeting, on 15 February 2026 at the Maradona, ended Napoli 2-2 Roma.
- What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Roma?
- Our prediction is Napoli 1-1 Roma. Roma's form and defence balance out Napoli's home record in a fixture where 5 of the last 10 meetings were draws.