Werder Bremen vs Augsburg Prediction – Bundesliga 2026/27

Club crests © respective clubs. Used for editorial identification only.

Model v2 · Generated 14 Sep 2026, 18:38 UTC

Augsburg’s Road Form Meets Bremen’s Weserstadion Woes

Werder Bremen host FC Augsburg on Matchday 4 with the two sides separated by three points before the round began. Augsburg arrive in Bremen on seven points from three games, unbeaten so far, while Werder sit on four points after an inconsistent opening. For Bremen, this is already a match where dropping points at home risks falling further adrift of the early-season pace.

The State of Werder Bremen

Daniel Thioune’s side have been wildly unpredictable. A 1-4 loss to Freiburg was followed by a spirited 3-1 win over RB Leipzig, only for a 1-1 draw against Köln to underline the inconsistency. Five goals scored and six conceded across three games tells you everything: Bremen can hurt teams going forward but remain vulnerable at the back. Under Thioune, Werder generally press high and play direct through the channels, but defensive lapses have been costly. The Leipzig result showed what this team can do when the press works and transitions click, but the Freiburg collapse exposed how quickly things unravel when the press is bypassed.

The State of Augsburg

Manuel Baum’s Augsburg are the story nobody predicted. A 3-0 win over Schalke, a 4-1 demolition of Eintracht Frankfurt, and a creditable 2-2 draw at Leverkusen add up to nine goals scored in three games. That is a side playing with genuine confidence and cutting edge. Augsburg have always been pragmatic and hard to break down, but this version carries a real attacking threat. The Leverkusen draw showed they can compete toe-to-toe with last season’s elite. Seven points and unbeaten before this round, they travel to Bremen with nothing to fear.

Head-to-Head

This fixture has been surprisingly one-sided in Augsburg’s favour. Of the last ten meetings, Augsburg have won five to Bremen’s three. More striking: at the Weserstadion specifically, Augsburg have won three of five visits, including a 1-3 victory in May 2026 and a 0-2 win in January 2025. Bremen’s last home win over Augsburg came in December 2023 (2-0). That is a genuine psychological edge for the visitors.

👀 What to Watch

Bremen’s defensive structure will be the decisive factor. Augsburg have scored nine goals in three league games and will target the same soft centre that Freiburg exploited on Matchday 1. If Thioune cannot tighten up his backline, Augsburg’s recent confidence and their strong record at the Weserstadion could prove decisive. Watch for how Bremen set up in the first fifteen minutes: do they press aggressively as they did against Leipzig, or sit deeper to avoid the collapses that have plagued them?

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Werder Bremen a 40% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 32% for Augsburg. Expected goals: 1.3–1.2. Both teams score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.

The tight expected-goals line reflects how evenly matched these sides are right now, despite Bremen’s home advantage. Augsburg’s superior head-to-head record in Bremen and their strong early-season form offset the home factor. The model puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%, pointing to a cagey affair rather than a shootout. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring one side we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. Bremen’s Weserstadion crowd and the need for a response after two imperfect results edge them narrowly ahead in a tight contest. These are model projections for informational purposes only, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: Werder Bremen 1-0 Augsburg

Practical Info

Kickoff: 15:30 CEST (Sat 19 Sep) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 19 Sep) / 14:30 BST (Sat 19 Sep). Venue: Weserstadion. Where to watch: DAZN (Germany) / TNT Sports (UK).

FAQ

What time is Werder Bremen vs Augsburg?

Kickoff is at 15:30 CEST (Sat 19 Sep), 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 19 Sep), or 14:30 BST (Sat 19 Sep).

Where is Werder Bremen vs Augsburg being played?

The match is at the Weserstadion in Bremen.

Who won the last meeting between Werder Bremen and Augsburg?

Augsburg won 3-1 at the Weserstadion in May 2026.

What is the predicted score for Werder Bremen vs Augsburg?

Our model predicts Werder Bremen 1-0 Augsburg. While 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline, the win probabilities favour Bremen at home, and a narrow 1-0 win reflects their need for points and slight home advantage.

How can I watch Werder Bremen vs Augsburg on TV?

The match is broadcast on DAZN in Germany and TNT Sports in the UK.