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Match Prediction
Cagliari win
Draw
Bologna win
Cagliari or draw
Bologna or draw
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.2 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 19:18 UTC · Track record
Cagliari’s Climb Meets Bologna’s Slump
Before this round, Cagliari sit 7th on 13 points from 7 games. Bologna sit 15th on 5. Eight places and eight points separate them. That flips the usual order of this fixture, and Bologna travel to Sardinia needing points before their autumn turns into a relegation fight.
The State of Cagliari
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Cagliari’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct | Monza | Away | L 0-4 | Serie A |
| 11 Oct | Juventus | Home | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 19 Sep | Udinese | Away | W 1-0 | Serie A |
| 12 Sep | Atalanta | Away | W 2-1 | Serie A |
| 7 Sep | Lecce | Home | W 1-0 | Serie A |
Fabio Pisacane’s side earned their place in the table on the road and on thin margins. They won 2-1 away at Atalanta and 1-0 away at Udinese, and their 2 clean sheets in five games describe a team that defends first. The cracks opened when they lost 0-4 away at Monza in Serie A, and they are now without a win in the last 2. Their record over five games is still 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost, so Monza looks like the exception for now. At the Unipol Domus, where they drew 1-1 at home to Juventus, expect a compact block, a crowded box and a hunt for transitions and set pieces.
The State of Bologna
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Bologna’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Inter Milan | Home | L 1-3 | Serie A |
| 11 Oct | Lecce | Away | W 2-1 | Serie A |
| 19 Sep | Torino | Home | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 13 Sep | Napoli | Away | L 0-1 | Serie A |
| 6 Sep | Sassuolo | Home | D 2-2 | Serie A |
Domenico Tedesco’s Bologna have 1 win in their last five, and it came away from home: they won 2-1 away at Lecce. The home form is the bigger worry. They lost 1-3 at home to Inter Milan, and the 3 home games in this run brought 2 draws and that defeat. The defence has kept 0 clean sheets in five. The 2025 Coppa Italia winners can still keep the ball and build through midfield, but the back line has not held up.
Head-to-Head
Bologna lead the last nine meetings with 5 wins to Cagliari’s 3, plus 1 draw. Cagliari have won 3 of the 5 meetings in Sardinia, but Bologna took the last two there: Cagliari 0-2 Bologna on 19 October 2025 and Cagliari 0-2 Bologna on 29 October 2024. The most recent meeting, Bologna 0-0 Cagliari on 3 May 2026 at Bologna’s ground, ended goalless. No side has scored more than 2 in any of the nine.
👀 What to Watch
The reaction to Monza. Pisacane’s side built their run on low-scoring control, and a four-goal defeat tests that structure. If Cagliari concede first, they have to chase a game, and that is not how they have won.
Bologna’s defending in transition. A side without a clean sheet in five now plays a host that thrives on one-goal margins. If Bologna push numbers forward to protect their league position, the space behind is where Cagliari want to play.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Cagliari a 37% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 35% for Bologna. Expected goals: 1.3–1.2. Cagliari’s table position and home record in this fixture point one way, but the hosts have struggled to score against Bologna lately, and the visitors’ head-to-head edge keeps this close. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Cagliari 1-1 Bologna
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC / 15:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 9:00 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 14:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: Unipol Domus
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Cagliari vs Bologna?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC / 15:00 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 9:00 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 14:00 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Cagliari vs Bologna being played?
- Venue: Unipol Domus
- Who won the last meeting between Cagliari and Bologna?
- Nobody. The most recent meeting, Bologna 0-0 Cagliari on 3 May 2026 at Bologna's ground, ended goalless. Bologna won the previous meeting 2-0 in Cagliari on 19 October 2025.
- Where can I watch Cagliari vs Bologna on TV?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
- What is the predicted score for Cagliari vs Bologna?
- Our prediction is Cagliari 1-1 Bologna. Cagliari's league position and home record in this fixture are balanced by Bologna winning the last two meetings in Sardinia.