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Match Prediction
Estoril win
Draw
Moreirense win
Estoril or draw
Moreirense or draw
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.1 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:47 UTC · Track record
Bottom Side Needs a Home Response
Estoril go into Matchday 9 18th on 2 points from 8 games. Moreirense arrive 12th on 8 points, six places and six points better off. For Vasco Matos’s side, a home game against a team that has not kept a clean sheet in its last five is the clearest chance yet to stop the slide.
The State of Estoril
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Estoril’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Académico Viseu | Away | L 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| 20 Sep | Casa Pia | Home | L 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| 14 Sep | Braga | Away | L 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 7 Sep | Arouca | Home | D 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 31 Aug | Benfica | Away | L 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
The tally is grim: no win in five, three defeats in a row and only 3 goals scored across the run. The two most recent losses hurt most. Estoril lost 1-2 at home to Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga, then lost 1-2 away at Académico Viseu. Both defeats came by a single goal, so this is not a side being overrun. The defence has conceded 7 in five games. The real problem sits at the other end: two blanks in that run, and they have not scored more than once in any of the five. Matos needs more bodies arriving in the box and quicker service into the final third. At home they have one draw and one defeat from two games in this sample.
The State of Moreirense
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Moreirense’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Gil Vicente | Home | L 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 20 Sep | Vitória | Away | D 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 14 Sep | Marítimo | Home | W 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 9 Sep | Benfica | Home | L 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| 4 Sep | Porto | Away | L 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
Vasco Botelho Da Costa’s side have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last five, with 5 scored and 9 conceded. The win was emphatic: 3-1 at home to Marítimo in the Primeira Liga. The latest result was flatter, a 0-1 defeat at home to Gil Vicente, and they are now without a win in two. Away from home they have one draw and one defeat in this sample. Zero clean sheets in five is the number Estoril will study hardest.
Head-to-Head
Moreirense have owned this fixture lately: 4 wins to Estoril’s 1 across the last eight meetings, with 3 draws. The most recent, on 20 April 2026, was a 1-0 Moreirense win at their own ground. Before that, the meeting at Estoril on 7 December 2025 finished 3-3. At this venue the record is level: one win each and two draws in four meetings. Moreirense have scored in 7 of the 8.
👀 What to Watch
Estoril’s blunt attack against a Moreirense back line that keeps leaking goals. Something has to give. The second thread is game state. Estoril’s run of 1-2 defeats shows a side that struggles to recover once behind. If Moreirense score first, they can sit deeper and play on the break while the hosts chase. An early Estoril goal changes the whole mood of the afternoon.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Estoril a 42% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 30% for Moreirense. Expected goals: 1.4–1.1. The lean towards Estoril rests on home advantage and Moreirense’s failure to keep a clean sheet, though the head-to-head record and Estoril’s form suggest the model is generous to the hosts. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.3%, but with the win probabilities favouring Estoril we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Estoril 1-0 Moreirense
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:30 UTC / 15:30 WET (Sun 25 Oct) / 15:30 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 11:30 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
- Competition: Primeira Liga, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Estoril vs Moreirense?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:30 UTC / 15:30 WET (Sun 25 Oct) / 15:30 GMT (Sun 25 Oct) / 11:30 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Estoril vs Moreirense being played?
- Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
- Who won the last meeting between Estoril and Moreirense?
- Moreirense won the last meeting 1-0 at their own ground on 20 April 2026.
- What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Moreirense?
- Our prediction is Estoril 1-0 Moreirense. Home advantage and Moreirense's lack of clean sheets in their last five tilt the model slightly towards Estoril.
- Where are Estoril and Moreirense in the Primeira Liga table?
- Before this round, Estoril were 18th on 2 points from 8 games and Moreirense were 12th on 8 points, six places and six points ahead.