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Match Prediction
Augsburg win
Draw
Union Berlin win
Augsburg or draw
Union Berlin or draw
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.0 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 21:03 UTC · Track record
Union’s Shut Doors Meet Augsburg’s Open Game
Augsburg go into the round 10th on 8 points from six games. Union Berlin sit 17th on 5, so three points and seven places separate the two clubs. Augsburg need to end a four-game winless run at home. Union, stuck in an automatic relegation place, need to prove that their recent defensive revival can travel.
The State of Augsburg
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Augsburg’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Elversberg | Away | L 3-4 | Bundesliga |
| 10 Oct | Bayern Munich | Home | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 19 Sep | Werder Bremen | Away | L 2-3 | Bundesliga |
| 12 Sep | Bayer Leverkusen | Home | D 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| 6 Sep | Frankfurt | Away | W 4-1 | Bundesliga |
Manuel Baum’s side play football that entertains everyone except their goalkeeper. They have scored 13 and conceded 12 across their last five, with no clean sheet and no blank in that run. The 2-2 at home to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga showed what this team can do when a game opens up. The 3-4 loss away at Elversberg showed the price of the same approach. Augsburg commit numbers forward and trust themselves to outscore opponents. Both home games in this stretch ended level, and the wins have dried up.
The State of Union Berlin
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Union Berlin’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Dortmund | Home | D 0-0 | Bundesliga |
| 10 Oct | Elversberg | Home | W 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| 18 Sep | Bayern Munich | Away | L 0-7 | Bundesliga |
| 11 Sep | Schalke | Home | L 1-3 | Bundesliga |
| 5 Sep | Bayer Leverkusen | Away | L 0-4 | Bundesliga |
Mauro Lustrinelli’s Union look like two different teams. The first conceded 14 across the last five, including a 0-7 loss away at Bayern Munich. The second has kept two clean sheets, the latest a 0-0 draw at home to Dortmund, and is unbeaten in two. The problem is goals: Union scored only two in five games and failed to score in three. The compact, physical identity that carried the Köpenick club from the second tier to the Champions League is coming back. The attack has not followed yet.
Head-to-Head
The most recent meeting was a rout: Union won 4-0 in Berlin on 16 May 2026 in the Bundesliga. The wider sample of ten still favours Augsburg, with four wins to Union’s two and four draws. In Augsburg the record leans further their way, with three home wins from five meetings and one Union win. These games are rarely open. Seven of the ten finished with two goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
The central question is whether Union’s deep block survives a trip. Both away games in their form run ended in defeat, and the clean sheets came at home. Augsburg will press with bodies in the box, but their impatience has cost them in transition this autumn. If Union hold shape through the first hour, Augsburg’s lack of a clean sheet becomes the danger: one Union set piece or counter could decide it. If Augsburg score early, Union have shown little capacity to chase a game.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Augsburg a 48% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 25% for Union Berlin. Expected goals: 1.5–1.0. Augsburg’s attack keeps producing goals while Union’s keeps misfiring, and the home record in this fixture backs the hosts. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.0%, but with the win probabilities favouring Augsburg we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Augsburg 1-0 Union Berlin
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Venue: WWK Arena
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
FAQ
- What time is Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
- Kickoff: Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC / 15:30 CEST (Sat 24 Oct) / 9:30 AM EDT (Sat 24 Oct) / 14:30 BST (Sat 24 Oct)
- Where is Augsburg vs Union Berlin being played?
- Venue: WWK Arena
- How can I watch Augsburg vs Union Berlin on TV?
- Where to watch: Sky & DAZN (Germany) / Sky Sports, Prime Video & BBC (UK) / USA Network & Fandango (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Augsburg and Union Berlin?
- Union Berlin won the last meeting 4-0 in Berlin on 16 May 2026 in the Bundesliga.
- What is the predicted score for Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
- Our prediction is Augsburg 1-0 Union Berlin. Augsburg score regularly and have the better home record in this fixture, while Union have scored only two goals in their last five games.