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Match Prediction
Inter Milan win
Draw
Fiorentina win
Inter Milan or draw
Fiorentina or draw
Expected goals: 2.0 – 0.5 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 23 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC · Track record
Leaders Host a Fiorentina Side in Freefall
Serie A’s top side meets a club in the bottom three. Inter go into the round first on 19 points from seven games, and Fiorentina sit 18th on 4 points from seven. The two clubs are 17 places and 15 points apart, and Fabio Grosso’s side come to San Siro needing to stop a slide that is starting to define their season.
The State of Inter Milan
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Inter Milan’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct | Shakhtar | Home | W 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| 17 Oct | Bologna | Away | W 3-1 | Serie A |
| 13 Oct | Club Brugge | Home | L 3-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Oct | Parma | Home | W 3-0 | Serie A |
| 19 Sep | Roma | Away | D 2-2 | Serie A |
Cristian Chivu’s side have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five, with 12 scored and 7 conceded. The 3-1 win away at Bologna in Serie A showed their league authority on a hard ground. The blemish came in Europe: a 3-4 defeat at home to Club Brugge in the Champions League exposed how open Inter become when they commit numbers forward. They tightened up in the next European game, winning 1-0 at home to Shakhtar. Inter scored in all five of those matches. Their football is built on wing-backs who attack high, midfield runners who arrive late in the box and quick combinations up front. A Sunday lunchtime kickoff, four days after a Champions League night, will test how well the squad rotates.
The State of Fiorentina
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Fiorentina’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Como | Home | L 1-3 | Serie A |
| 10 Oct | Genoa | Away | L 1-2 | Serie A |
| 20 Sep | Napoli | Home | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 11 Sep | Venezia | Away | W 4-2 | Serie A |
| 5 Sep | Torino | Home | L 1-2 | Serie A |
Fiorentina have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five, with 8 scored, 10 conceded and no clean sheet. They have lost two in a row and are without a win in three. The 1-3 defeat at home to Como in Serie A was the low point. Their only win in this run was 4-2 away at Venezia. They have scored in every one of those games, so the attack still functions. The defence is the problem, and a side that has not won at home in this run now faces the league leaders away.
Head-to-Head
Inter won five of the last nine meetings, Fiorentina two, with two draws. The most recent, on 22 March 2026, ended Fiorentina 1-1 Inter in Florence. The last meeting at San Siro, on 29 October 2025, finished Inter 3-0 Fiorentina. Fiorentina did win 1-0 at San Siro on 1 April 2023, but Inter won three of the five meetings hosted in Milan.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Fiorentina’s back line against Inter’s wide overloads. A defence that has kept no clean sheet in five must choose between sitting deep and pressing. Sitting deep invites crosses and late runs from midfield. Pressing leaves space behind for Inter’s wing-backs. The Brugge game shows Inter’s own risk: when they push bodies forward, fast transitions hurt them, and Fiorentina have the goals to exploit that.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Inter Milan a 74% chance of winning, 19% for a draw and 7% for Fiorentina. Expected goals: 2.0–0.5. Inter’s strong home record in this fixture and Fiorentina’s failure to keep a clean sheet drive that read. The model may underrate Fiorentina’s chance of scoring, because they have scored in every recent game, but their defensive record makes an Inter win the clear call. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Inter Milan 2-0 Fiorentina
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 11:30 UTC / 12:30 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 7:30 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 11:30 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: San Siro
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Inter Milan vs Fiorentina?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 11:30 UTC / 12:30 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 7:30 AM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 11:30 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Inter Milan vs Fiorentina being played?
- Venue: San Siro
- How can I watch Inter Milan vs Fiorentina?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
- Who won the last meeting between Inter Milan and Fiorentina?
- The last meeting, on 22 March 2026 in Florence, ended Fiorentina 1-1 Inter Milan. The previous game at San Siro, on 29 October 2025, finished Inter Milan 3-0 Fiorentina.
- What is the predicted score for Inter Milan vs Fiorentina?
- Our prediction is Inter Milan 2-0 Fiorentina. Inter go into the round top of the table, and Fiorentina have kept no clean sheet in their last five games.