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Match Prediction
Santa Clara win
Draw
Benfica win
Santa Clara or draw
Benfica or draw
Expected goals: 0.7 – 1.8 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 20:51 UTC · Track record
Fourth Hosts Second in the Azores
Santa Clara go into Matchday 9 fourth on 18 points from eight games, one point and two places behind Benfica. Monday’s game at the Estádio de São Miguel closes the round and tests whether the Azoreans’ strong start can survive a visit from one of Portugal’s big three. Benfica arrive with a clear job: take three points on a long Atlantic trip that rarely suits visiting sides.
The State of Santa Clara
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Santa Clara’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Casa Pia | Away | W 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 20 Sep | Braga | Home | D 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 13 Sep | Arouca | Away | W 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 6 Sep | Rio Ave | Home | W 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 29 Aug | Alverca | Away | D 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
Petit’s side are unbeaten in their last five league games: 3 won, 2 drawn, with 8 scored and only 2 conceded. Three of those five were clean sheets. The 0-0 at home to Braga showed how hard they are to break down on their own pitch. The 1-0 win away at Casa Pia was the template for this team: a narrow lead, protected without panic. Santa Clara defend in a compact block, keep the lines close and look to hurt opponents in transition rather than chase the ball. That approach has worked against mid-table sides. Benfica will ask harder questions of it.
The State of Benfica
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Benfica’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Vitória | Home | W 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 20 Sep | Porto | Away | L 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| 13 Sep | Gil Vicente | Home | W 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 9 Sep | Moreirense | Away | W 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 5 Sep | Marítimo | Away | W 3-0 | Primeira Liga |
Marco Silva’s team have won 4 of their last 5, with 13 scored and 4 conceded, and they scored in every one of those games. The one blemish was a 1-3 defeat away at Porto. They answered it with a 2-0 win at home to Vitória, one of three clean sheets in the run. On the road they have been ruthless against weaker opposition, winning 4-0 away at Moreirense and 3-0 away at Marítimo. Expect Benfica to hold the ball, push their full-backs high and pin Santa Clara deep.
Head-to-Head
This fixture has belonged to Benfica. Across the nine meetings shown, Santa Clara have not won once: Benfica have 8 wins and there was one draw. Benfica have won all four of those games at Santa Clara’s ground. The most recent meeting, on 13 February 2026, finished Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica in Ponta Delgada. The only draw came at Benfica’s ground on 12 September 2025, 1-1. Santa Clara scored in 5 of the 9 meetings, so they can find the net against Benfica. Keeping them out is the problem: Benfica scored in all nine.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Benfica’s possession against Santa Clara’s low block. The home side have conceded only 2 goals in their last five, but none of those opponents had Benfica’s depth of attacking talent. The first goal matters most. If Santa Clara stay level past the hour, their counterattacking plan comes alive, and the defeat at Porto showed Benfica can be opened up when a side breaks with purpose.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Santa Clara a 12% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 65% for Benfica. Expected goals: 0.7–1.8. Benfica’s perfect record at São Miguel in this sample and their scoring consistency drive that read, while Santa Clara’s tight defence points to a low-margin game. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Santa Clara 0-1 Benfica
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Monday 26 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 18:45 WET (Mon 26 Oct) / 18:45 GMT (Mon 26 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Mon 26 Oct)
- Venue: Estádio de São Miguel
- Competition: Primeira Liga, Matchday 9
- Where to watch: beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Santa Clara vs Benfica?
- Kickoff: Monday 26 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 18:45 WET (Mon 26 Oct) / 18:45 GMT (Mon 26 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Mon 26 Oct)
- Where is Santa Clara vs Benfica being played?
- Venue: Estádio de São Miguel
- How can I watch Santa Clara vs Benfica in the US?
- Where to watch: beIN Sports (US)
- Who won the last meeting between Santa Clara and Benfica?
- Benfica won the last meeting 2-1 at Santa Clara's ground on 13 February 2026. Santa Clara have not beaten Benfica in the nine meetings in our data.
- What is the predicted score for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
- Our prediction is Santa Clara 0-1 Benfica. Santa Clara's compact defence should keep the game tight, but Benfica have won all four recent visits to São Miguel.