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Match Prediction
Auxerre win
Draw
Le Mans win
Auxerre or draw
Le Mans or draw
Expected goals: 1.7 – 0.8 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 20 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · Track record
Le Mans Need a Result in Burgundy
Auxerre go into the round 12th on 9 points from 7 games. Le Mans sit 16th on 6. The visitors trail by three points and four places, so a defeat at the Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps would leave them looking down the table rather than up it. William Still’s side have won both home games in their recent run, while Patrick Videira’s team arrive on two straight defeats.
The State of Auxerre
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Auxerre’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Le Havre | Away | W 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 11 Oct | Rennes | Away | L 1-4 | Ligue 1 |
| 20 Sep | Brest | Home | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 12 Sep | Nice | Home | W 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| 4 Sep | Lyon | Away | L 1-3 | Ligue 1 |
Auxerre’s form swings hard. A 1-4 defeat away at Rennes was followed by a 3-1 win away at Le Havre, and that response matters more than the scoreline in Brittany. The tally reads 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost, with 8 scored and 9 conceded. They have scored in all five games. At home the record is clean: 2 played, 2 won.
The club of Guy Roux and the 1996 double knows how to make this ground uncomfortable for visitors. Under Still, Auxerre carry a real threat going forward. Their weakness is the back line when games open up, and the four goals at Rennes showed it.
The State of Le Mans
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Le Mans’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct | Toulouse | Home | L 0-3 | Ligue 1 |
| 10 Oct | PSG | Away | L 1-3 | Ligue 1 |
| 19 Sep | Lorient | Home | W 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 13 Sep | Lens | Home | D 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 5 Sep | Nice | Away | D 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
Le Mans bring 1 win, 2 drawn and 2 lost, with 6 scored and 10 conceded. They have no clean sheet in the run. The last two results hurt: lost 1-3 away at PSG in Ligue 1, then lost 0-3 at home to Toulouse. The second defeat is the bigger worry, because it came on their own pitch against a side they would expect to compete with.
Away from home they have 1 draw and 1 defeat. Videira’s side are at their best when they turn games into scrappy, even contests. When an opponent gets in front, they have struggled to recover.
Head-to-Head
These clubs have shared divisions before, but their recent head-to-head record offers little guide to this meeting.
👀 What to Watch
The key contest is Auxerre’s attack against a Le Mans defence that has not kept a clean sheet in the run. Auxerre have scored in every game, and Le Mans have conceded in every game. An early Auxerre goal would force the visitors to open up, and that suits the home side’s transitions.
The counterpoint is Auxerre’s own defending. Le Mans scored freely in some of their home draws, and if they can keep this level into the second half, Auxerre’s tendency to concede in open games gives them a way back in.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Auxerre a 61% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 15% for Le Mans. Expected goals: 1.7–0.8. Auxerre’s perfect home run and Le Mans’ leaky defence drive that read. A narrow win fits a home side that creates chances but rarely shuts games down. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Auxerre 1-0 Le Mans
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC / 17:15 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 12:15 PM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 16:15 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
- Competition: Ligue 1, Matchday 8
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
FAQ
- What time is Auxerre vs Le Mans?
- Kickoff: Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC / 17:15 CET (Sun 25 Oct) / 12:15 PM EDT (Sun 25 Oct) / 16:15 GMT (Sun 25 Oct)
- Where is Auxerre vs Le Mans being played?
- Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
- How can I watch Auxerre vs Le Mans?
- Where to watch: Ligue 1+ (France & UK) / beIN Sports (US)
- What is the predicted score for Auxerre vs Le Mans?
- Our prediction is Auxerre 1-0 Le Mans. Auxerre have won both home games in their recent run, and Le Mans have not kept a clean sheet in their last five.
- Where are Auxerre and Le Mans in the Ligue 1 table?
- Before Matchday 8, Auxerre were 12th on 9 points from 7 games and Le Mans were 16th on 6 points from 7 games.