Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction: Serie A 2026/27 Matchday 4

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Model v2 · Generated 6 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC

Two Winless Sides Open Matchday 4 at the Penzo

Venezia and Fiorentina sit bottom of Serie A with zero points between them. Venezia are 18th with two losses from two, Fiorentina dead last at 20th after three consecutive defeats. Friday’s opener at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo is as close to a must-win as Matchday 4 gets: someone needs to leave with points, or the season threatens to run away from them before autumn arrives.

The State of Venezia

Giovanni Stroppa’s side have lost their opening two Serie A fixtures, falling 0-2 to Lecce and 0-2 to Milan without scoring. That goalless start is alarming. Stroppa typically sets up Venezia in a compact, low-block system designed to frustrate and counter, but when the front line cannot convert the few chances that structure generates, the blueprint collapses. The Penzo is a tight, atmospheric ground that has historically been unkind to visitors, and Venezia will hope home advantage can spark something. The underlying problem is clear: zero goals from two matches suggests a creative disconnect between midfield and attack that Stroppa must solve quickly.

The State of Fiorentina

Fabio Grosso’s Fiorentina are in worse shape by the numbers. Three matches played, three losses, one goal scored, nine conceded. The 0-4 defeat to Roma on the opening day set the tone, a 0-3 loss to Frosinone deepened the crisis, and the 1-2 defeat to Torino, while closer, still left Grosso’s side pointless and rooted to the bottom of the table. Grosso, who built his coaching reputation on aggressive, front-foot football at Frosinone and Lyon, has not yet found a way to make this squad function in that image. The defensive numbers are disastrous, and the single goal scored across three matches indicates the attacking system is misfiring too.

Head-to-Head

Venezia have reason for optimism in this specific fixture. They have won both previous home meetings in the data, beating Fiorentina 1-0 in October 2021 and 2-1 in May 2025. Across four recent meetings, Venezia hold the edge with two wins to Fiorentina’s one and a draw. Notably, three of those four encounters produced two goals or fewer, and neither side has ever scored more than two in a single meeting. This is a fixture that tends toward low totals.

👀 What to Watch

The tactical question is whether Grosso sticks with the high-press approach that has leaked nine goals, or whether he pragmatically drops deeper against a Venezia side that struggles to create. If Fiorentina sit in, they neutralise Stroppa’s counter-attacking plan but also surrender the initiative they desperately need. Stroppa, for his part, faces the opposite dilemma: his team cannot afford another scoreless home display, but pushing forward against even a struggling Fiorentina exposes a defence that has conceded four in two matches. The side that solves its attacking problems first will likely take the points.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives Venezia a 35% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 37% for Fiorentina. Expected goals: 1.2–1.3. Both teams score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.

The model puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 46%, which aligns with the head-to-head pattern of tight, low-scoring affairs at this venue. Two sides desperate for a result but struggling badly in front of goal points toward a scrappy, nervous contest where a single goal could decide it, though the sheer need on display may push both into enough risk-taking to find the net. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: Venezia 1-1 Fiorentina

Practical Info

Kickoff: 20:45 CEST (Fri 11 Sep) / 2:45 PM EDT (Fri 11 Sep) / 19:45 BST (Fri 11 Sep). Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo. Where to watch: DAZN (Italy) / TNT Sports (UK).

FAQ

What time is Venezia vs Fiorentina?

Kickoff is at 20:45 CEST on Friday 11 September 2026, which is 2:45 PM EDT and 19:45 BST.

Where is Venezia vs Fiorentina being played?

The match is at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venezia's home ground.

Who won the last meeting between Venezia and Fiorentina?

Venezia won 2-1 at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo on 12 May 2025.

What is the predicted score for Venezia vs Fiorentina?

Our model predicts Venezia 1-1 Fiorentina. With both sides winless and struggling to score, a low-scoring draw fits the pattern of their recent head-to-head meetings at this venue.

How can I watch Venezia vs Fiorentina on TV?

The match is broadcast on DAZN in Italy and TNT Sports in the UK.