vs
Club crests © respective clubs. Used for editorial identification only.
Match Prediction
Venezia win
Draw
Napoli win
Venezia or draw
Napoli or draw
Expected goals: 0.9 – 1.6 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head
Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.
Model v2 · Generated 14 Oct 2026, 06:31 UTC · Track record
Pointless Venezia Meet a Wounded Napoli
Venezia go into Matchday 7 bottom of Serie A, 20th with 0 points from 6 games, and the Penzo now has to become a fortress or the season slips away by Christmas. Napoli arrive 8th on 10 points, 12 places and 10 points clear of their hosts. They are a club with recent title pedigree that cannot afford to treat a trip to the lagoon as a formality after a bruising Champions League night in Spain.
The State of Venezia
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Venezia’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct | Atalanta | Away | L 1-3 | Serie A |
| 19 Sep | Lazio | Home | L 0-2 | Serie A |
| 11 Sep | Fiorentina | Home | L 2-4 | Serie A |
| 6 Sep | Frosinone | Away | L 2-3 | Serie A |
| 28 Aug | Milan | Away | L 0-2 | Serie A |
Five defeats in a row, 14 goals conceded against 5 scored and no clean sheet: the numbers describe a side that is competitive in spells but leaks under sustained pressure. The 2-4 loss at home to Fiorentina proved they can hurt opponents at the Penzo. The 1-3 defeat away at Atalanta showed the defensive structure still gives way once the press is broken.
The squad’s weight sits at the back. Juan Jesus, a former Napoli centre-back, brings composure and organisation to a line that badly needs it, while Marin Šverko and Armel Bella Kotchap provide aerial presence in their own box. The width comes from Ridgeciano Haps and Pasquale Mazzocchi, another ex-Napoli man, and their overlaps are Venezia’s most reliable route into the final third.
The State of Napoli
Last 5 results in all competitions, newest first (score shows Napoli’s goals first):
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | Villarreal | Away | L 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| 10 Oct | Frosinone | Home | W 3-0 | Serie A |
| 20 Sep | Fiorentina | Away | D 1-1 | Serie A |
| 13 Sep | Bologna | Home | W 1-0 | Serie A |
| 9 Sep | Arsenal | Home | L 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
Napoli’s form splits cleanly by competition. In Serie A they won 3-0 at home to Frosinone, a controlled performance built on possession. In the Champions League they lost 1-3 away at Villarreal, and the return from that trip is the context for this fixture. Two clean sheets from their last five underline a back line of Amir Rrahmani, Alessandro Buongiorno and Giovanni Di Lorenzo that rarely concedes cheaply in the league.
Kevin De Bruyne is the key to unlocking a low block. His early diagonals from the right half-space and his delivery from set pieces are exactly what a side facing a packed defence needs.
Head-to-Head
Napoli have won three of the four meetings shown, with one draw, and Venezia have not scored in any of them. The most recent was a 0-0 draw at the Penzo on 16 March 2025 in Serie A. All four meetings produced two goals or fewer.
👀 What to Watch
Juan Jesus against his former club is the central duel. He will be tasked with holding a deep line and denying De Bruyne the pocket between defence and midfield. If Venezia can keep Napoli’s playmaker facing his own goal, the 0-0 of their last meeting at this ground is a realistic template. If he finds time to turn, Venezia’s habit of conceding in clusters becomes the story.
🔮 Prediction
Our model gives Venezia a 20% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 54% for Napoli. Expected goals: 0.9–1.6. Venezia’s losing run and their failure to score in any recent meeting tilt this towards the visitors, but the tight, low-scoring pattern of the head-to-head points to a narrow margin. These are model projections, not a guarantee of outcome.
Prediction: Venezia 0-1 Napoli
Practical Info
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC / 15:00 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 9:00 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 14:00 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo
- Competition: Serie A, Matchday 7
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
FAQ
- What time is Venezia vs Napoli?
- Kickoff: Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC / 15:00 CEST (Sat 17 Oct) / 9:00 AM EDT (Sat 17 Oct) / 14:00 BST (Sat 17 Oct)
- Where is Venezia vs Napoli being played?
- Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo
- How can I watch Venezia vs Napoli?
- Where to watch: DAZN & Sky (Italy) / DAZN & TNT Sports (UK)
- Who won the last meeting between Venezia and Napoli?
- Nobody. Their last meeting, on 16 March 2025 at the Penzo in Serie A, ended Venezia 0-0 Napoli.
- What is the predicted score for Venezia vs Napoli?
- Our prediction is Venezia 0-1 Napoli. Venezia have lost five in a row and have not scored against Napoli in any of the four meetings shown, but those meetings have all been low scoring.