What time is QPR vs Derby?

Kickoff: Wednesday 14 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 19:45 BST (Wed 14 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Wed 14 Oct) / 20:45 CEST (Wed 14 Oct)

Who won the last meeting between QPR and Derby?

Derby won 3-2 at Loftus Road on 25 April 2026, the most recent encounter between the two sides.

What is the predicted score for QPR vs Derby?

Our prediction is QPR 1-0 Derby. QPR's defensive solidity and home advantage give them the edge over a Derby side that has struggled on the road recently.

What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?

In their last nine meetings, QPR have won five and Derby have won four, with no draws. At QPR's ground, the home side have won three of five.

What is Derby's recent form in the Championship?

Derby have won once, drawn once, and lost three of their last five Championship matches, picking up four points from a possible fifteen.

QPR vs Derby Prediction: Championship 2026/27 Matchday 10

Club crests © respective clubs. Used for editorial identification only.

Match Prediction

39%
QPR win

28%
Draw

33%
Derby win

67%
QPR or draw

Double Chance

61%
Derby or draw

Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.2 | Elo-adjusted Poisson model · team strength & head-to-head

Most likely scores:1–1 (13.4%)1–0 (10.1%)0–1 (9.1%)

Statistical model estimates, not a guarantee of outcome.

Model v2 · Generated 24 Sep 2026, 06:30 UTC · Track record

QPR Look to Punish Struggling Derby at Home

QPR welcome Derby to west London on a midweek evening with the two sides in sharply contrasting positions. QPR’s strong start has them well placed after nine rounds, while Derby arrive on the back of a difficult run that has left them near the foot of the table. Derby have won just once in their last five Championship outings, and QPR will view this as a chance to convert draws into wins after picking up three in a row.

The State of QPR

Julien Stéphan’s side have been hard to beat. Their only defeat in the last five came at Middlesbrough (0-1), and they followed that with three consecutive draws: goalless at Charlton, 1-1 at West Brom, and 2-2 at Preston. The pattern is clear: QPR are compact and difficult to break down, but they are leaving points on the table by failing to see out winning positions. Before that run they won 2-1 at Cardiff, showing they can find goals on the road. Back at Loftus Road, Stéphan will want his side to turn defensive solidity into three points. QPR have conceded sparingly this season, and the home crowd should provide a lift after a sequence of away fixtures.

The State of Derby

John Eustace’s Derby are in trouble. Since beating Portsmouth 2-0 at the start of September, they have taken just one point from four matches: a 0-3 loss to West Ham, a 0-1 defeat at West Brom, a 1-2 reverse against Birmingham, and a 1-1 draw with Burnley. Goals have dried up, and the defence has been porous. That Burnley draw stopped the bleeding, but Derby travel to London needing a result and lacking the recent evidence to suggest they can get one.

Head-to-Head

This fixture has produced drama. Derby won 3-2 at Loftus Road last April, overturning what would have been a strong QPR position. Before that, Derby also won 1-0 at Pride Park in October 2025. However, QPR hammered Derby 4-0 at home in February 2025, the widest margin in recent meetings. Across the last nine encounters, QPR hold a 5-4 edge, with three of the five matches at QPR’s ground going the home side’s way. Goals have flowed in the last two meetings at this venue (nine in two games), though five of the nine overall meetings produced two goals or fewer.

👀 What to Watch

QPR’s challenge is converting dominance into goals. Three consecutive draws suggest they control matches but lack a clinical edge in the final third. Derby’s defensive fragility on the road could be the antidote. Derby conceded three at West Ham and have shipped multiple goals in three of their last five. If QPR press early and take the lead, the question is whether they can hold it, something they have struggled to do recently. Derby’s best hope is to frustrate QPR into another stalemate and try to nick something on the counter, as they did in that 3-2 win here last season.

🔮 Prediction

Our model gives QPR a 39% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 33% for Derby. Expected goals: 1.3–1.2.

QPR’s defensive record and home advantage give them the edge, but the margins are thin. Derby’s recent struggles and poor away form tip the balance. 1-1 is the most likely single scoreline at 13.4%, but with the win probabilities favouring one side we take their most likely winning score, 1-0. QPR’s ability to keep things tight should be enough to edge a low-scoring affair. These are model projections for informational use only, not a guarantee of outcome.

Prediction: QPR 1-0 Derby

Practical Info

Kickoff: Wednesday 14 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 19:45 BST (Wed 14 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Wed 14 Oct) / 20:45 CEST (Wed 14 Oct)
Venue: Loftus Road
Competition: Championship
Where to watch: Sky Sports (UK) / CBS Sports & Paramount+ (US)

FAQ

What time is QPR vs Derby?: Kickoff: Wednesday 14 October 2026, 18:45 UTC / 19:45 BST (Wed 14 Oct) / 2:45 PM EDT (Wed 14 Oct) / 20:45 CEST (Wed 14 Oct)
Who won the last meeting between QPR and Derby?: Derby won 3-2 at Loftus Road on 25 April 2026, the most recent encounter between the two sides.
What is the predicted score for QPR vs Derby?: Our prediction is QPR 1-0 Derby. QPR's defensive solidity and home advantage give them the edge over a Derby side that has struggled on the road recently.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?: In their last nine meetings, QPR have won five and Derby have won four, with no draws. At QPR's ground, the home side have won three of five.
What is Derby's recent form in the Championship?: Derby have won once, drawn once, and lost three of their last five Championship matches, picking up four points from a possible fifteen.